Last Boarding Call for the Derby
Real Writing on Racing 💯
The Grade III Stonestreet Lexington Stakes Saturday afternoon at Keeneland represents the final opportunity for three year olds to earn points to qualify for the 2022 Kentucky Derby. With the winner getting only 20 points (which is still double the points that the early season 3yo winners earn) it’s doubtful without having already accumulated a decent balance that they will have a legitimate chance to get in the gate on the first Saturday in May. That said there are a couple that could sneak in the door but we are talking fringe players in the big race at best. 20+ years ago the Lexington was a stepping stone for a lot of really impactful three year olds like Unshaded or Charismatic or Touch Gold and though it hasn’t been a great indicator of future sucesss lately the 2022 version is a competitive, almost eclectic group. The grade I Jenny Wiley follows and while it is a short field of six competing over the grass at 8.5 furlongs, it’s a high class bunch.
Lexington Stakes Gr III $4000000 8.5 furlongs Kee
Midnight Chrome - Derby winning trainer John Servis tries the dirt again with this son of California Chrome who has spent most of career on the lawn. He does have an interesting dirt race on his card when he was third behind two of last weekends big Kentucky Derby prep winners, Mo Donegal and Zandon, in the Remson back in November at Aqueduct. That was the race that Irad on the winner went all WWE in the stretch though Midnight Chrome was far enough behind to avoid all the elbows and Flagrant 2 fouls. His most recent race was a third behind a slow pace on the grass in a GP allowance race and while not close to fast enough to consider on top, he should improve and with a ground saving trip might be able to be third at a long price.
In Due Time - was second in the spill-marred Fountain of Youth, with jockey Paco Lopez taking much of the blame for the incident for his ride on this Not the Time colt. Has 20 points and gets himself in with a win here as I believe that he would have enough non-restricted stakes earnings to go with the 40 points he earned. He has to be given a serious chance as he drew well, has enough tactical speed to grab a forward position and his speed figures (3 top TG) are the groups fastest. It’s a race with the potential to have a soft early pace with literally no front runners signed on, so his ability to be close to that tepid pace is important. Solid trainer Breen chose well to skip being a longshot in the much tougher Bluegrass in favor of being one of the choices in a pretty mediocre $400k race.
We All See It - finally took a step forward in his 4th attempt to clear the entry level allowance ranks, winning a tight decision and breaking through on figs running a 7 on TG after being stuck at the 11 level. Would have to improve once again to be considered on top but Kenneally’s horses have been running well, Saez should always be respected and he isn’t that far behind the top contenders here.
Ethereal Road - yeah he ran last week in the Bluegrass and everyone who was rooting for the sentimental story of the old master taking one last shot at the Derby has been replaced by hand-wringing about the same old guy being the villain this weekend. There is one thing that I can assure you though, Wayne Lukas does not care what you or anyone else thinks and never really has. That said I’m skeptical about his chances as the one big race that he has run came in the worst Derby prep of 2022, the Rebel at OP. He does figure to save more ground this week than either of his last two where he was wide both turns but Lukas turns over the reins to Espinoza who only has 9 more riding wins than you or I do this year.
Howling Time - was the wise guy horse in the Fountain of Youth but ran abysmally, continuing trainer Romans slump in graded races with him losing at least 42 in a row now. He is back in Kentucky where Romans horses always run better than they do out of town. Does have some speed and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him ridden aggressively to the lead here. If you are looking for a horse that might have a reversal of fortunes at a long price, this may be where you land. He isn’t for me at anything less than 20-1 but stranger things have happened.
Skate to Heaven - all out to break his maiden last out at OP. Big jump in numbers to respectable level but unlikely to break through that 6 TG in this spot.
Major General - flashed talent and gameness last fall when breaking his maiden and capturing the Gr. III Iroquois in two tight finishes. Off 175 days going into the Tampa Bay Derby where he was sent off at 4-1 despite the layoff, he stumbled at the start and showed zilch afterwards, getting beat 25 lengths when JJ Castellano basically eased him when hopelessly beaten. Adds blinkers for Team Pletcher and it’s hard to imagine he won’t run much better but at a short price, I’m gonna wait and see.
Strava - pricey fall sale purchase (850k) after breaking his maiden, has run well in all three starts despite encountering some sort of issue in all of them. Last out at OP he broke though the gate prior to the start, chased perfect trip and subsequent Arkansas Derby winner Cyberknife and still managed to be third while running a new lifetime top (TG 5) for the third consecutive time. He did hang on his left lead in that race and Stewart adds blinkers for this start. Contender at price.
Tawny Port - exits runner up spot in the meat race 🥩 at Turfway Park and is sitting in 20th on the Derby list with 40 points. BRIS has him rated number 1 in the race on their Prime Power rating. Cox wins in Kentucky like I eat chicken wings…frequently. That said I don’t like him in this spot. His figs are just ok, his style isn’t really suited to a Keeneland short stretch 8.5 furlong race and jockey Flo Go is ice cold. At 5-2 or close to it I’m looking elsewhere.
Dash Attack - it wouldn’t be a midwestern Kentucky Derby prep without Mr McPeek being represented. Exits the soft 2022 OP derby trail path and his best race was on a biased-aided, sloppy track where he came from the clouds. Gets the new sheriff in town, Prat, to ride but in a race that lacks pace, he looks tough to take unless there is a strong anti-speed track bias which based on how the main track has been playing is unlikely.
Call Me Midnight - went on brief hiatus after his upset win in the Lecomte at the FG in January. Returned in the Louisiana Derby and failed to menace after breaking a step slow, just passing a few tired ones late without making much of an impact. Will likely be too far back once again to threaten here as the outside post and the short stretch play against his chances here. He is probably good enough to mount enough of a rally to hit the board but that’s as far as we can back him.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - In Due Time
Jenny Wiley Gr. I $500000 1 mile turf Keeneland
Scarabea - cuts back in distance from a pair of Grade III Gulfstream turf marathons where she ran her best two races. The issue is that while she is an improving filly, she seems better suited towards distance racing and currently she is far too slow to have even a prayer here for capable trainer Sisterson. Calumet Farm is always willing to take a shot at long prices which is to be commended as most big outfits aren’t but they look overmatched today.
Waliyak (Fr) - consistent filly also cutting back in distance after decent try last fall at Woodbine in the grade I EP Taylor which was run at 10 furlongs over a very soft surface for former trainer Roger Varian. Now based in Kentucky with Ed Vaughan, she did well campaigning in mile races in the UK last summer working her way up to a 109 Timeform rating which is still below par for grade I races. Has had some gate issues in the past which would not help as she seems to be a cut below the top mares in here.
Shantisara(Ire) - a middling synthetic track performer in France 🇫🇷 joined the Brown crew last spring. After a decent ‘welcome to the US turf’ effort when running second at Monmouth in the Boiling Springs, she ripped off three consecutive big stakes wins, all at different tracks, seeing her TG figures jump with each start which is very unusual for top turf performers. Her four TG’s last year from her first start were 12.25/7/5.5/2.5 which is not something that I can recall happening with a top level turf horse. Her last race of 2021 was her best both numerically and visually as she crushed eight other top fillies when winning the grade I QEII Cup here at Keeneland by 5 lengths. The question here is can she improve again in her first start off the layoff against older mares and is the 8.5 furlong distance shorter than where she is at her very best?
Regal Glory - is in career best form coming off her win at Gulfstream in the inaugural Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mares Invitational last out at this same distance. Admittedly that was not a strong field but the manner in which the six year old mare inhaled the field after circling up wide on a course that usually abhors that move was impressive. Was reported to possibly be headed to the breeding shed after that race but was so impressive that the connections decided to keep her in training which we love to see. Her last race at Keeneland was a great runner up try in the grade I First Lady, narrowly missing to her barnmate Blowout who went wire to wire last fall. Strictly the one to beat here.
Navratilova- when last seen at Keeneland the Rusty Arnold trained filly was upsetting the grade III Valley View after setting a tepid pace and holding sway at 25-1. She made her four year old debut at Gulfstream last month running a good third in her first try against older in the grade III Honey Fox. She has improved steadily like most good turf horses develop though she is still a cut below the top two in here.
Lady Speightspeare - This team, owner Chuck Fipke, trainer Roger Attfield, jockey Luis Saez and Bloodstock advisor Sid Fernando teamed up with another home bred by Speightstown to win the Friday feature at Keeneland, the grade I Makers Mark Mile with Shirl’s Speight who upset a top field at 9-1. This filly comes out of a pair of races at Tampa where she knocked heads with another of the Chad Brown turf armada, the rampaging and undefeated after five starts, Bleecker Street. In her last the grade II Hillsborough at 9 furlongs she set a strong pace over a rain soaked grass course and weakened in deep stretch from her early efforts. She cuts back today and with the aggressive Saez taking over the reins, she may be the one to catch in this short field. I don’t know if she is good enough at this point to hold off the top two who are arguably the best two middle distance turf mares in training in North America but if you are not enamored by chalk she might be the one to try.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Lady Speightspeare
Quick Takes
🎙 if you missed our Special Edition show this week on an exciting new twist on thoroughbred ownership called Game of Silks check it out Here
🔥 One of our favorites from last year, the rapid Jackie’s Warrior makes his four year old debut today at Oaklawn against 5 rivals including the classy Bob’s Edge in the grade III Count Fleet handicap. You never know how a horse will return from injury (JW had knee surgery soon after the BC) but happy to see him back.
👀 Last years 2yo champ, Corniche finally made his first official work of the year yesterday going 36.80 at WinStar training center after a mysterious few months of inactivity.
☹️ It’s rumored that the Stronach 5 wager, which was a great, low takeout bet on Friday afternoons combining races at the four 1S/T track locations, is being discontinued. In our view this is a baffling move as it was one of the very best wagers in thoroughbred racing that put eyes on tracks that many ordinarily wouldn’t have looked at.
⬆️ Lost in the hullabaloo over the wrong results being posted last week on opening day at Keeneland, veteran trainer Eduardo Caramori and sharp owner Paula Capestro looked like the nabbed a good one when they reached in for Malibu Marie who drew clear in the final stages, beating a slew of nice allowance fillies in that days 4th race. With the Kentucky purse structure booming, spending 80k to claim one just won her 4th in a row, improving each time isn’t the worst idea.
🏆 In thoroughbred racing every once in a while greatness flashes by us but it rarely lingers. This was a quick story of one season of racing where it did.
🇨🇦 Woodbine’s long thoroughbred season opens up today! Best of luck to our Northern friends!