Land of Confusion

Real Writing on Racing 💯

Horseracing’s muddled future

In the old days we used to buy maps from gas stations and groups like AAA when we were heading off on a road trip. They were big, awkward things those paper maps, folded up like a flat Rubik’s cube, both sides showing various metro carve outs, leaving you to search out the best route for your journey. Depending on the distance to your destination you might have required more than one map which just added to the potential confusion and re-folding those tricky guides was as frustrating as trying to do a puzzle with pieces missing.

What do maps have to do with Horseracing? Well for anyone with even a fleeting interest in the sport, that depends on where you currently stand and where you think it’s going.

The main difference between mainstream sports and racing is the critical direct investment from it’s supporters that is required for racing to survive. Big leagues like the NFL and NBA get the majority of its revenues from broadcasting rights which run into multitudes of billions of dollars. Yes those leagues teams do also profit from ticket sales and merchandising but the television money is the central profit center. For racing the primary driver of revenue is betting handle, money not supplied by a contract with a media monolith but from individual bettors which sounds simple enough but complications loom.

None of that is groundbreaking news but understanding the importance of the wagering public and the role they play in any real growth that the sport will require to survive the massive influx of new gambling competition is critical and frankly not happening.

What is the plan?

If you are reading this there is a high likelihood that you are quite familiar with horseracing in general terms and many have a long history with the game. I have informally asked a question to several industry participants lately and virtually all of them responded in a similar manner. I will ask all of you the same question now. What is the plan that have you heard from the industry for growing horseracing?

The responses were tepid.

“I don’t know”

”Good question but not sure”

“Fixed odds?”

Not a single person was able to say with any conviction that a plan from any of the vaunted industry leadership has ever really been revealed. We hear about commitment that rarely has tangible results. We hear about new wagers and see doubling down on old ones. We hear about maneuvers and schemes from individual organizations that only benefit their bottom lines. However where is the grand plan to grow the industry, to deal with the increased competition, to expand the customer base on both sides of the equation?

There isn’t one.

(To be continued)

Observations from the last week

☑️ I watched yesterday’s Bing Crosby from Del Mar and have a few thoughts. First was that was an awfully weak grade one stakes race for older horses. The winner, a three year old named Dr. Schivel was the only previous grade 1 winner, though it was a 2 year old stakes against a soft group, and he was all out yesterday despite getting a favorable pace scenario and smooth trip. The controversial filly Gamine would have crushed that group.
☑️ Congrats to Calumet Farm and Trainer Jack Sisterson for taking chances with horses in stakes races where they are going to be long shots. It paid off again yesterday in the Vanderbilt as the classy Lexitonian pullled off the upset at 34-1 under an aggressive ride from Jose Lezcano. Big fields and aggressive riders are things that we don’t see enough of these days

☑️ The more I see of our domestic turf runners (outside of perhaps Domestic Spending) the more confident I am that the Breeders Cup Turf races will be won by Euros

☑️ Steve Asmussen is about to break the all-time wins record for a trainer and considering his age, the continued power of his outfit and his desire to participate at all levels of the sport are going to send this record to the ‘impossible to break’ status like Cy Young’s 511 wins in baseball. Remarkable achievement.
☑️ On social media Jockeys still get way too much credit when they win and way too much blame when they lose. A great ride doesn’t have to be a winning one and a bad ride can still result in a winners circle appearance. Never forget that jockeys can only ask a horse to do something, they can’t make them do it

☑️ Boy the weather intangible sure is rearing it’s ugly head in the Saratoga versus Del Mar comparison isn’t it?

☑️ If all the horses pointing to the Whitney actually line up in the gate, who runs with Knicks Go early?
☑️ I like steeplechase racing and don’t care who doesn’t.
☑️ I promise to write more in the coming weeks.
☑️ Anybody seen Tacitus?