Kicking off at Keeneland
Real Writing on Racing 💯
Spring isn’t official in Kentucky until Keeneland throws open the doors for its always highly anticipated Spring meet. Especially so this season as the slow trudge through the Winter meets seems even longer with Aqueduct hosting NY racing since Saratoga ended, the Championship meet at GP feeling like empty calories outside of the big event days and the disintegration of Santa Anita takes its toll. Opening day features strong, competitive fields, a trio of interesting stakes, a two year race with an initial glance at some first year stallions runners and a new takeout rate of 15% on daily double bets. Welcome back Keeneland, we missed you.
⚖️ Bob Baffert’s back in the news and it’s not because the promising Maymum wound on a milk carton instead of the Santa Anita Derby entries. No it’s more legal doings as Muth’s owner, Zedan Stables, has filed suit against Churchill Downs, seeking injunctive relief allowing Mr B’s horses to compete in this year’s Kentucky Derby. I’m not a lawyer and I didn’t stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night but this seems like a Hail Mary, as none of the three stated reasons given as to why they should be allowed to participate seemed particularly compelling.
🧨 Trainer Steve Asmussen is adding blinkers to Track Phantom’s equipment for the Kentucky Derby, which seems to suggest that there will be plenty of pace in this 150th version of the Run for the Roses.
🏇🏻 We all know of the exploits of Uncle Mo as a stallion, this week Sid Fernando dives into his emerging status as an excellent broodmare sire with the success of recent OP stakes winners Muth and Thorpedo Anna, both out of Uncle Mo mares.
🐎 Steve from USA Steeplechase writes about Silver Charm in his daily newsletter today.
💰 A pick 3 combining the Wood Memorial (Gr II), Bluegrass Stakes (Gr I) and Santa Anita Derby (Gr I) is being introduced Saturday as you can read here.
🆓 Friday’s DRF Formulator Race of the Day is the Ashland (Gr I) and you can access free past performances for that race HERE.
🎙️ Barry and I with the help of a few special guests will be doing a Keeneland seminar on Friday on Twitter Spaces for those that are on the X app. We will be going over some of the races and taking questions if anyone has any. Check it out!
2️⃣ The first two year old race of the season is ⤵️
📒 Free Programs for Keeneland are available at This link.
Transylvania (Gr III) $400,000 3yo 1 1/16 Turf
Oscar’s World - consistent 3yo colt by the excellent young stallion Oscar Performance is trained by the always dangerous Brian Lynch, switches back to the grass after a nice effort in a synthetic allowance at GP last month. Draws inside and should get a nice trip under Saez, improvement gets him in the mix at a price as there is no one in here that you’ll confuse for Equinox.
Guy Named Joe - American Pharoh colt ships in from the west coast for Doug O’Neill. Always runs well but seems to have plateaued, had no excuse in his last and as noted on the latest Going in Circles Big Monday show guest, Aaron Hesz of the SoCal mainstay Handicapper’s Report, he feels like he is a cut below the best of these.
Lagynos - Broke his maiden on the grass at Kentucky Downs back in September but hasn’t seen that surface since. Asmussen shifts the Kantharos colt off an unsuccessful Derby prep path and back to the turf here and while he isn’t exactly a horse you’d want to single here, he may appreciate the change as his dam has produced mostly grass horses. Do note that his trainer has not done nearly as well at Keeneland over the years as he has at CD, nevertheless at 20-1 he is worth tossing in.
Neat - Greatly benefitted from hugging the rail on the lead in his last at Sam Houston when one of his rivals blew the first turn and scattered most of the field. His other grass races at Laurel and FG are both good though and while it’s easy to look at that last race with skepticism, the Constitution colt does have talent.
Tennessee - This Tennessee is fortunate that it doesn’t have to deal with a giant Edny like the college hoops version did last weekend. Justify colt makes his turf debut here but it shouldn’t be big surprise if he adapts just fine as the young stallion sensation has a stellar record in producing grass runners and this colt is a 1/2 brother to a slew of good runners on that surface including stakes winning, grade 1 placed Moon over Miami. Interesting to see Jose Ortiz named to ride as he has decided to move his business to the Bluegrass state and he hasn’t ridden much for Cox in the past.
First World War - Yet another solid 3yo colt that wants to be forwardly placed in here. The son of War Front took a little dirt racing detour this winter and ironically the results were quite similar to his turf form. The first turn is going to be busy place as everyone jockeys for a good stalking position and this guy might be directly in the middle of that. Like many of these, he is in with a big chance and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he repeats his recent stakes win in the Kittens Joy but he could be 5th just as easily. This is a tough race to forecast.
Lord Bullingdon - Ships east trying to earn his way into the American Turf (Gr II) slot that his barnmate has seemingly abandoned due to a case of Derby Derangement Syndrome where perfectly logical owners make oddly illogical decisions to chase a race that doesn’t seem to suit their horse. He may be a bit overlooked here as his PP’s are similar to the other So Cal shipper Guy Named Joe, but he had a much tougher trip in their latest matchup and if Johnny V can get him to settle early, he has a punchers chance.
Musical Act (Ire) - Chuck Appleby off the plane is currently striking at a 71% rate according to DRF stats! Unlike the typical Godolphin/Appleby North American shipper, this is a gelding, he is coming in from Dubai and he has a front running style which may not work out so well here. Tough to leave him out based on the wild success of these connections.
Depiction - Confirmed closer adds blinkers in first start since January. Has had issues leaving the gate and with the preponderance of early running types, he will probably be towards the back of the field. Of course a swift pace would help the More than Ready colts chances, though he’d have to run a pretty big lifetime top to beat these.
Can Group - Deep closer switches back to the grass after a non-effort on the dirt in the Lecomte (Gr III). Good Samaritan colt needs a fast pace and a fortunate trip. Check the earlier grass races to see if the course is playing fair.
Full Nelson - winner of the Columbia at Tampa last out (though fortunate as the runner up Fulmineo had a horrible trip), he is stuck out in post 11, meaning a wide journey is more likely than not. Lord Nelson colt is undefeated since being transferred to the sod and is plenty fast enough off of that last race but it’s going to be a challenge for Irad to workout a reasonable trip.
Cugino - Twirling Candy colt is perhaps the most talented horse in the field based on TG figs but gets a hard luck draw here. Like most of the others, does his best running from a forwardly placed, stalking position and they can’t all be in that spot. Perhaps Castellano takes back and tries to weave his way through the field?.
Royal Majesty (Ire) - Also Eligible - if Frankel colt happens to draw in, he will do his running from the back of the pack.
Camaro Z - Also Eligible - comes into this fresh from an off the turf stakes win at FG.
Lafayette (Listed) $400,000 3yo 7 furlongs
Frosty Indulgence - Frosted gelding closed from way back in debut on the tapioca at Turfway to get up in time over Trouble’s Roaring, who returned to run 2nd again on the Ruby undercard. Tough spot for first try against winners/dirt though the expected strong early pace can’t hurt.
Scatify - one of the unique pleasures of social media is reading the inane and often bizarre takes when it comes to jockey performance, strategy and maneuvers. The ride on this son of Justify in the San Felipe (Gr II) at Santa Anita was particularly poor, as Hector Berrios seemingly had intended to hold his position going to the first turn after breaking from the rail post. However a few jumps out, Scatify bobbled and rival Wine Me Up took advantage by darting to the lead and grabbing the path closest to the rail. Berrios however didn’t take enough of a hold of his mount and Scatify ran himself right into a jackpot as the compact field hit the first turn, rear ending ultimate winner Imagination who was directly outside Wine Me Up, and almost going causing himself to fall. The jock then proceeded to put the colt under a hammerlock and by the half mile pole the three year old cried “uncle” and essentially eased himself. It was a rare case of a journeyman jockey riding like an inexperienced 10 pound bug rider…yet the howls from Twitter land seemed to indicate that many felt that some sort of foul had occurred (it hadn’t) and offered any number of conspiracies rather than comprehend who was actually at fault. It happens often on a daily basis that jocks get blamed for poor performance issues from horses that they had little to nothing to do with. Scatify’s last race however, is one where the jockey was absolutely the cause of a domino-like series of events that led to his disastrous showing. He is re-entered in an allowance (race 2 on Saturday) that looks like a far less challenging spot and I’m assuming that’s where he winds up running.
Doncho - Mo Town gelding has cruised in both starts at FG this winter, showing high speed early and then just throttling the field in the lane. Trainer Michelle Lovell stretches him out a furlong here and interestingly enough names Cristian Torres aboard, a jock she only has used for one other start in the past. His two TG figs (3 & 4) are very good, making him the fastest in this group. Likely faces early pace pressure but not sure that will be enough to stop him here as he is clearly the one to beat.
Baytown Chatterbox - the Street Sense gelding won the Juvenile Stakes at Ellis last summer but hasn’t progressed and appears overmatched here.
Booth - Asmussen trainee beat up on a representative allowance race in the mud at OP in February in his 3yo debut. Son of Mitole did nothing wrong that day, showing an ability to rate behind early leaders and has a win over the surface last fall when he dusted a pretty good horse in Nash first time out. The negatives are his TG figs are not going forward, he loses lasix and does he have to chase Doncho if Glengarry doesn’t engage that one early?
Glengarry - Iowa bred by Maximus Mischief owns a stakes win over this course last fall when he took down the Bowman’s Mill going 6f, a race whose form held up well with the 3rd and 4th place finishers that day taking down stakes next out and holding that good form throughout the winter. Not exactly an easy spot to return in as he hasn’t run since finishing a close second in the Springboard Mile at Remington to Otto the Conqueror who has lost many wars since that night. Trainer Anderson does well off layoffs but this is a tricky situation as he may not want to get involved in a speed duel off the layoff and is giving up some fitness to his main rivals. Respect but wary.
Who Dey - undefeated in 4 starts, this Ohio-bred Liam’s Map colt also makes his 3yo debut in the Lafayette. His 2yo finale was an impressive allowance win at CD in late November, overcoming a poor start and some traffic issues to score over a field that included Bergen (won Jimmy Winkfield stakes in next start) and Southwest (Gr III) winner and likely KY Derby participant Mystik Dan. Has a progressing TG pattern though needs to exceed his 2yo top to beat these, especially with ground loss on the turn but could be the beneficiary if a pace battle does materialize.
Bolt at Midnight - switched to the Robbie Medina barn, this Bolt D’Oro colt has been toiling on the Tapeta at TP, his most recent race was a speed pop and stop in the Battaglia. Tough to see much success for him in this spot.
Ashland (Gr I) $600,000 3yo fillies 1 1/16 (100 KYO pts)
Candied - Unseen since a nice effort when a closing third in the BC Juvenile Fillies last November. Candy Ride filly has a win over the track as she took down the Alcibiades (Gr I) last October and is nicely drawn to save ground in the first turn. Seems like the pace should be sufficient to solid and if she is ready to fire fresh, will be a big player. She did have issues with lead changes last year and it will be interesting to see if anything has changed in that regard with the layoff and some maturity.
Standoutsensation - looks like Amoss made a good claim when he reached in for the Take Charge Indy filly last Fall for $100,000. However she hasn’t improved nearly enough to make a dent against this caliber
Leslie’s Rose - Pricey Into Mischief filly contested the early pace in her first two starts sprinting, earning big figs in both wins. Last out, from post 1 going a mile out of the chute at GP in the Davona Dale (Gr II), Irad was content to sit behind a reasonable early pace in 4th while saving ground, but she never really mustered up much of a rally and settled for being 3rd. Her TG regressed from 5.25 and 4.50 to 9.50 which is concerning though her ability at navigating a second turn is also a mystery. Perhaps Pletcher changes tactics and instructs Irad to put the filly in the race or go to the lead in the short stretch race?
Halona’s Forte - fading Phil Bauer in any spot these days is wagering suicide as he’s batting 45% in 2024 including this Mitole filly scoring an easier than it looks win in the Ruthless at Aqueduct over what turned out to be a solid field, with both the 2nd and 3rd place finishers returning to win. The issue here is that her sire Mitole was a sprinter and in fairly limited numbers hasn’t shown that two turn races will be a strong suit and her dam, Lunarlady, was strictly a sprinter. She is plenty fast enough but I’m not convinced she wants two turns therefore she’ll probably romp here and win the KY Oaks by 10.
Shimmering Allure - Broken record alert! For the 7th consecutive week I’m faced with a perplexing Ken McPeek entry. The oft-raced Enticed filly has done quite a bit of developing since her debut back in June at Ellis Park. She wasn’t a match for Candied in the Alcibiades (Gr I) last fall but ran well this winter at Aqueduct, winning the Tempted stakes and finishing second in the Demoiselle (Gr II) before not doing much running in the Busanda in January, her last start. It wouldn’t be a shock to see her pick up some of the pieces if the early pace is quick but it’s tougher to imagine her beating this group without some colossal meltdown.
Just FYI - Last years 2yo filly champ after going undefeated in three starts culminating with a narrow win in the BC juvenile fillies (Gr I). Surprisingly scratched midday out of her expected comeback race, the Davona Dale (Gr II), she’s playing catch-up at this point and more concerning is that her TG figs are ok, not super fast though they were earned last fall so with natural progression you’d expect her to improve. However it doesn’t always work that way and taking a short price on her to get the job done using playbook B is a question that I won’t try to answer. She doesn’t ‘need’ to win to advance to the KY Oaks (Gr I) which is something to keep in mind when considering trainer intent here.
Impel - Stop me if you have heard this story before…lightly raced but speedy Brad Cox trained 3yo filly comes into graded stakes with impressive record… This Quality Road filly, a Juddemont homebred out of a decent stakes placed mare by Flatter named Your Love, has blitzed her opponent’s in both starts. She broke her maiden at first asking on New Year’s Day at FG going 6f, beating a pretty good filly of Phil Bauer’s named Tipsy Tammy in the process. Her second win came two months later at OP in a solid allowance race going 1 1/16, drawing away to win by 8. Shouldn’t be too far off the lead and while certainly is going to be tested for class here and might be bet like she is tons the best which is still debatable (her TG figs are good but a bit slower than the Pletcher fillies). Yet we have seen way too many of this barns horses run at Keeneland like there is a tractor beam pulling them directly into the winners circle to ignore.
Jody’s Pride - She often gets overlooked when people talk about the top sophomore fillies but she is a very nice horse. Jorge Abreu prepped her for this in the Busher at the Big A last month, her first race back since just missing in the Breeders Cup Juvenile fillies. She runs solid figs, she has tactical ability, she always finishes well and if Flavian Prat can work out a decent trip, she could get the job done at a square price.
📽️ A blast from the past - 1996 Ashland Stakes