Keeneland of Opportunity

Real Writing on Racing 💯

📸 Keeneland

🏇🏻Keeneland is on the wagering docket once again, one of the premier meets that offers big fields of competitive races with a front loaded stakes bonanza the first weekend. Love the $3 Keeneland Turf Pick 3 as it is challenging but rewarding (low 15% takeout) with great payoffs. We will do several blog posts for the meet, three this weekend starting with todays edition covering Friday’s stakes.

⭐️The best horse that you’ve never heard of is Tyler’s Tribe. A two year old, Iowa-bred son of surprising first year stallion Smart Azteca, he has blitzed the poor competition in the heartland, crushing whoever dared line up against him at Prairie Meadows. His record is now 5 for 5 after another annihilation last Saturday night in the Iowa Cradle stakes, those combined winning margins close to 60 lengths. Tylers Tribe’s connections are pointing to the Breeders Cup though it’s still up in the air if they are leaning towards the BC Juvy at 8.5 furlongs, which would be his first two turn race, or the BC Juvy Turf Sprint, which would be his initial try on the grass. If it was me…I would try the grass sprint. Golden Pal has shown that super fast American speed can blunt the European’s class advantage over short distances in our races with a turn. Asking Tyler’s Tribe to stretch out in distance against the best horses in the division with a talented but very inexperienced jockey, especially with a pedigree that doesn’t exactly scream two turns…it’s a very tough assignment. Either way this is the type of horse that makes for a great Breeders Cup story, the proverbial little guy that comes from relatively humble beginnings to take on the behemoths that typically dominate racing headlines. Read here for more about the story of the little boy who he is named for and the cause that Tyler’s Tribe runs for. I might not be betting on Tyler’s Tribe, but I will certainly be rooting for him.

👎🏼 This years Vosburgh Stakes (Gr II) is the best example yet of how the graded stakes schedule in this country needs to be re-examined. This is an ludicrously weak “Win and your In” stakes that allows the winner an ‘all-expenses paid’ trip to the Breeders Cup Sprint. The two favorites in the five horse field, Southern Passage and Elite Power, have combined for zero stakes wins or placings lifetime. Eastern Bay last ran in a graded stakes in October of 2020 and won an allowance at Parx last Wednesday. Jalen Journey was third in a listed stakes at Parx at 19-1 on Monday. Drafted, who is the only 2022 graded stakes winner (or placed), won a couple of grade III’s at Aqueduct and Belmont earlier in the year. However, the most noteworthy thing he has done lately, is have his Forego (Gr I) purse earnings carjacked from him due to a minor HISA riding crop violation. Basically two promising yet unaccomplished runners, a couple of journeyman type hard-knockers that ran within the last week or so and Drafted. That’s after last year’s 4 horse field and 2020’s less than stellar 5 horse race…this is a grade 3 field at best and maybe not even that.

Phoenix Grade II $350,000 6f dirt 3&up

1. Sir Alfred James - Trainer Cash is not afraid of the entry box, this six year old is making 2022 start number 16 in the Phoenix, which isn’t a weak as the Vosburgh but doesn’t look like a particularly memorable edition. He bombed at Remington last out 12 days ago and honestly it’s difficult to feel strongly about his chances in here from post 1.

2. Special Reserve - Is he the horse to beat here? Yes. Does that mean you should take a price less than his 2-1 morning line? No. How much heat Sibelius applies might be the key to the entire race, can the six year old shake free and hold off the closers like he did in last years Phoenix? Your call.

3. Top Gunner - chased and tired last three. Can he turn it around, not get involved in the pace battle and have something left for the stretch? I don’t think so. Trainer Ortiz has done far better at Kentucky tracks other than Keeneland.

4. Baytown Bear - seems overmatched in this class

5. Sibelius- 4 yo gelding in career form coming into this after crushing decent group in Maryland last out. He ran a big boy TG number that day (-3.75) after never having run better than a .75 before. Will presumably get company on the front end, likely pressing Special Reserve and possibly Top Gunner. Can he match that last effort or take just a slight regression? Will see how track is playing but wary of taking too short of a price on him but IMO is most likely winner.

6. Necker Island - wheels back in 20 days after just missing in good CD effort. Figures to get a good trip stalking the ample early speed in here, can he run them down? If track isn’t completely front end speed biased, rates a big chance.

7. Manny Wah - his biggest weakness is that he simply gets too far behind and with swift fractions expected here, might be his issue once again. At the right price he is useable underneath in exotics.

8. Long Range Toddy - not in good form currently and even his best isn’t really good enough. Stewart is ❄️ icy lately, 3% from 59 starts over the last three months.

Jessamine Grade II $350,000 8.5f turf 2yo fillies

• Delight is a tepid favorite and I’m leaning against her in this bulky field. She breaks very sharp but is wrangled back, two starts back against good maidens at Saratoga, she wound up wide in a decent effort. Last out she beat a terrible MSW group at Delaware (outside of the runner up who broke maiden against similar weak sauce next out) and her TG 13 is just ok. That said she does have a pair of two turn races and that experience will help plus Thomas and Saez have some insane numbers together (37% wins/74% ITM with 2.92 ROI from 41 starts). Take a hard look at Sabalenska for sharp young trainer Whit Beckman. She was sluggish early in her first start at Colonial Downs (a race won by Knockyoursocksoff) but made up a lot of ground while also being wide on the second turn. Her last start at Kentucky Downs, she won against despite being wide when the track was favoring those running on the inside. Her TG numbers put her directly in the mix, she should get a ground saving trip from the inside and is every bit as fast as many of the shorter priced horses in here. The aforementioned Knockyoursockoff got a tough trip over very soft ground at KD in the Juvy Fillies, but gets Prat and a move forward from her first fig makes her a player at a price though post 11 is no bargain. Towhead has plenty of experience, this is her 6th race though only five count. She generally likes to race close to the pace so I will assume that Gafflione will be sending her from post 12 to get position going into the first turn. She can win with a good trip though demand a decent price. Recognize faced better fillies in the PG Johnson at Saratoga, though she has to deal with speed both inside and outside of her. We will fade C C Cruise Control, Promise of Hope, Bling, Blind Spot, Happy Gal and Dulcia.

Alcibiades Grade I $500,000 8.5 furlongs 2yo fillies

1. Wonder Wheel - Casse has been very high on this filly, who might have needed that effort last time out in the Spinaway (Gr I) at the Spa. Stretches out to a two turn event, her dam was far more effective going long and Into Mischief’s can do most anything. Casse does better at Keeneland than the other premier meets and Gafflione should be able to work out a good stalking trip. The one to beat.

2. Chop Chop - none of this years 2 yo filly crop has been able to separate themselves from the pack which is why we are likely seeing proven turf runners making the surface switch, trying to knock off this grade 1 race over the surface that the BC Juvy fillies will be run over. This City of Light filly has won both her turf races, both going a mile including a gutty effort over yielding turf in the Juvy fillies at Kentucky Downs in her latest. Gets Rosario for midwestern training juggernaut Cox, she has to be respected though you are playing a guessing game with her on the surface switch. Cox was in this exact same scenario a year ago with a Nyquist filly named Turnerloose, a filly by a first year stallion whose racing career was mostly based in California, starting her career with a win first time at Ellis Park on the turf followed by a win in the same Kentucky Downs stakes. Cox chose the turf option with her and she almost pulled it off but note she did win first time dirt albeit several months later at FG.

   

3. Stellar Lady - has done little wrong in her three race career but feels like she needs to really improve in order to compete here switching back over to the dirt. Might have been better served in the Jessamine IMO.

4. Raging Sea - off 2 months since her winning debut where she looked game and ran a nice TG fig (10) for a summertime maiden race. Probably a little overbet due to connections, I’d put her fair market value at about 12-1 to win this race and you’ll likely be getting half of that. Loses Prat though he hasn’t been riding as much for this barn as he was earlier in the spring.

5. Xigera - another switching to the dirt after turf success, this Nyquist filly was super impressive winning a MSW at the Spa, after being being a solid second in her debut, a race that has held up as a strong one (see Delight in Jessamine). Bauer has remained hot post-Spa and from a cursory glance at her pedigree (Her sire won the KY Derby, her broodmare sire the BC Classic) you’d think she would handle dirt though her dam has had far more success throwing grass runners and Leparoux sticks with Fun and Fiesty, but that is for one of his main clients.

6. Mustang Lady - Impressive debut overcoming poor start and traffic, though the race was very slow. Showed little in KD turf stakes in next, hard to recommend.

7. Essaouira - comes out of maiden breaker going two turns at Delaware after rally to be third in Spa turf sprint, first out. Well bred filly has potential to get better going this trip, picks up Irad, tough call.

8. Infinite Diamond - raced a bit greenly sprinting but was super when stretched out to a mile, destroying maidens at Gulfstream by 14, earning a 5.5 TG which is really strong for a two year old filly. The question is can she do it around another turn, wheeling back on three weeks rest and shipping once again (she summered in Del Mar)? Geroux shows 0% wins for the barn in limited starts but I do recall him winning a stake on Diamond Oops at Churchill for Biancone a few years ago. 🇫🇷

9. Fun and Feisty - rallied from far back to take down the Pocahontas (Gr III), earning a solid 7.75 TG which paired up with the 7.75 earned when breaking her maiden the start prior. Does come back in 20 days and not sure of trip Leparoux will be looking for as she has been closer early than she was last time. McPeek showing flat-bet profit of 2.20 with 2yo’s over last 273 starts. Can she win? Sure. Will I play against her believing that betting deep closers at Keeneland is not what you want to be doing? Yes.

10. Kaling - loomed up the inside at the top of the stretch in the Spinaway closing weekend at the Spa but tired late. Stretches out here and while it wouldn’t be a shock to see her win, it is probably more for the TAP fans than everyone else. Prat rode both races and doesn’t wind up here so…

11. Just Cindy - is she just a sprinter? She broke poorly in the Spinaway and made a brief move on the turn while wide but couldn’t sustain and backed up readily. Has had issues at the gate twice now and if she breaks bad here, she is probably cooked. However if she hadn’t run in that race she’d be 6-1 or thereabouts in here and today you will likely get 15/20-1.

12. Take Charge Brianna - Prat winds up here after riding several others for bigger outfits which is interesting. Jockey changes aren’t always linear so we don’t actually know if he chose this filly over everyone else or she was who he was left with. Was way back before putting in furious rally to break maiden in last, has pedigree to suggest the longer trip will be fine. Not thrilled with taking closers on the Keeneland main track 8.5 furlong races as they have a short stretch for those events. Hot tub time machine fired up? Lukas has won this race six times, first time was back in 1983 with Lucky Lucky Lucky and the last time was 2003 with Be Gentle.

13. Sabra Tuff - seems like she isn’t developing much. Gets Paco which is always fun!

14. Boss Lady Bailey - has to improve a lot in a short time and is stuck with post 14

How many people remember Wise Dan winning the 2010 Phoenix?