Jim Dandy eve or Curlin day?
Real Writing on Racing 💯
🎪 They warned us the rain was coming…and they weren’t wrong. Early showers in the day made the main track wet enough to be sealed and listed as good for the third, the turf listed as good for the 6th and 7th, and once the late afternoon deluge came, sloppy and sealed for the last three. Some grumbled about the late surface switches for the last two though I’m not sure what the best solution would be, to be completely honest. There is still a long way to go in this meet and those turf courses are going to play a big role in determining it’s success. Sure it’s a wholly unsatisfying ending to the pick 4-5-6 to finish with the last two races being “all” but it’s also better than “post time favoriting” those two races as well, with the plethora of late scratches.
⏳ The Birdstone, which is now a regular part of the Spa stakes program, was won by Fearless, who should now be considered the preeminent dirt marathoner in the US. That title, which is not exactly dripping in glory, has unofficially been held for the last several years by Lone Rock, who checked in third, tiring very late after setting a surprisingly often challenged pace. In the lead up to the race we were thinking that the tactical advantage was with the confirmed stayer that won the Birdstone last season. However he faced far more pressure that expected, first from Sugar Ray Too in the early stages and then from Original Intent (who I’m confident when he was named, the owners original intent wasn’t for him to become a 14 furlong dirt specialist but here we are…). The early fractions (24.94 - 50.06 - 1:15.40) were faster than the first race (24.14 - 50.77 - 1:16.71) despite that race being 5 furlongs shorter and Lone Rock faced at least some pressure throughout. Fearless, on the other hand, raced towards the rear of the compact group and didn’t look at that comfortable over the ground which had taken some moisture in the form of earlier rain showers. Luis Saez aboard the winner, looked like he was coaxing him throughout the second half of the race and put him to a full drive with about 5 furlongs to the finishline. Lone Rock finally threw in the towel mid-stretch when Fearless finally found his groove and went by him up the inside, and Original Intent re-rallied to pass him from the outside and finish in the runner-up position. With no dirt marathon on the NYRA schedule for the upcoming Belmont-at-Aqueduct meet, perhaps we will see all of the participants from the Birdstone in the Sept 24 Greenwood Cup (Gr III) at Parx.
🎪 The big news of the day was the confirmation of the widely rumored, ‘Belmont meet being shifted to Aqueduct’ because of construction 🚧 on the tunnel leading to the infield on the backside of the main track. Certainly changes the dynamics of the meet and makes the long Winter stay at the Big A seem even longer. We will have further commentary on this supposedly one time shift at a later date.
🎪 This was perhaps the most mundane card of the season and to be frank not much noteworthy occurred.
🎪 Props to Dom Schittino for having Little Linzee ready to fire first time out as she captured the second race, a NYB maiden for 2yo fillies going 5.5f on the grass. Favorite Souffle had dead aim on the winner but couldn’t get by.
🎪 Quick Return lived up to his name in the third, as he was claimed for $32000 last out at Churchill, showed up in a $12500 claimer, dropping and popping to win by a couple as the 2/1 second choice. He was claimed out of the race making his owners a quick return though after paying trainer Matt Shirer, jockey Ricardo Santana and training/shipping expenses, it would be a negative return.
🎪 Capleton was ran for purse money only in the 4th after a hind shoe issue.
🎥 Jeff from Chartinghorsevalues.com looks at todays Curlin Stakes
Day 12 (28 racing days to go)
Curlin ®️Stake $175,000 1 1/8 dirt 3yo
Western River - cross entered in Saturdays Jim Dandy where he doesn’t look like he will be anything but an outsider. TG has him running a 2 last out when he easily won a 12 furlong allowance at Churchill but I’m skeptical about the fig. The runner up that day ran back at Colonial on Wednesday in grass stake and didn’t make much impact. Also cutting back three furlongs is tricky. His prior numbers were strong enough to put him in the mix however and while I have difficulty figuring out what to do with him, using him isn’t out of the question.
Gilded Age - deep closer got the job done last out in a CD allowance going todays distance but needed a wild pace (45.4 - 1:10) setup that he is unlikely to get today.
A.P.’s Secret - probable pace setter as there doesn’t seem to be any other real early speed types. Didn’t have much excuse in Texas Derby in latest and lost ground in the stretch of both his previous stakes attempts. Needs a big jump up in figures and doesn’t seem likely for trainer batting 6% at Saratoga over the last several seasons.
Make it Big - barn change since last to Team Todd. Son of Florida based stallion Neolithic, colt showed promise when taking down the Springboard Mile at Remington Park last fall before bombing in the Sam Davis at Tampa and not being seen since. Tough spot for a return though he has no conditions and might not have many other options without shipping.
Golden Glider - B team type that has operated on the fringes against good horses this spring, threw in clunker in the Belmont in last. Tough call in here especially with a tepid pace possible. Surprised they didn’t take the allowance option at the 9 furlong distance as a confidence builder.
Wolfe County - maiden breaker has only run one credible TG figure which was in the last at Churchill. McPeek has been firing on all cylinders this summer but this one is tough to make a big case for.
Creative Minister - this McPeek entrant isn’t so tough to make a case for however. Ran four increasingly stronger races starting off with his debut sprinting at Gulfstream back in March before a dull Belmont try. Has worked well at the Spa, posting a couple of bullets since arriving in early July. New jock Dylan Davis gets the mount here and he will have to find the Creative Cause colt a comfortable spot behind what might be a soft pace. Probably the one to beat but I’d be skeptical about taking too short of a price here.
Be Better - Uncle Mo colt finally advances to the Pletcher big boy team after being moored at Monmouth. Won allowance in New Jersey in his last in fast time over scorching Monmouth dirt surface. The Saratoga main track hasn’t played particularly fast all meet so keep in mind the vast difference versus Monmouth. Saez picks up the mount which is always a plus and his TG figs have been good but not great. This is a logical spot to him to try saltier company and he might have enough tactical speed for Saez to get good position leaving that first turn and heading down the backside.
Artorius - prototypical Chad Brown type, well bred, lightly raced but excellent races in those starts. Is by Arrogate suggesting that the stretch out won’t hurt though his dam, Paulasilverlining was a graded stake winning sprinter. Ran good figures both races, improving to a 4.75 TG in last. First time around two turns and the far outside post aren’t things you like but Irad is aggressive and you’d think he would be sending early if the colt breaks well.
Curlin winning the 2008 Dubai World Cup 🌍