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Real Writing on Racing 💯
We anticipated doing previews for both days of racing at Pimlico but honestly the Friday card was one that we literally couldn’t muster up many opinions about and the stakes races could very well be chalky. The two stories that will surely be saturating the airwaves Friday/Saturday will be the incredibly hot temperatures in Baltimore this weekend 🥵 and the desire of some to makes changes to the best thing in racing. We have no comments on the weather as Mother Nature doesn’t care but we will have lots to say about the second item on the Going in Circles Big Monday show next week! Best of luck as always! 🍀
Preakness Stakes Gr. I $1650000 9.5 furlongs 3yo
Simplification - I had him 1st/2nd on lots of Derby tickets which likely prevented him from wearing the Roses 🌹 (carried too much weight with both Jose Ortiz and me on his back). He is versatile and his connections wasted no time getting him to Baltimore as he was the first Preakness contender to show up at Pimlico. He did run well in the Derby though he is a horse that always runs well as his versatility has been on display his entire three year old campaign. Drawing the rail might be a little tricky for him and new rider Johnny Velazquez as the pace scenario appears a little murky beyond Early Voting and even with him, his trainer has floated word that he might want him to rate (🤷🏼♂️). This years Kentucky Derby should be a good lesson in how things may not go the way they appear to be as no one thought that Crown Pride would be pressing a nuclear ☢️ pace. On the face of it Early Voting would be clear a length or two clear of Epicenter and Armagnac with the rest scattered behind those two. Simplification has the ability to be laying somewhere in that second tier with his tactical speed though I’m not sure what the plan with him will be, it might be dependent on what everyone else does and Johnny is sitting on a very adaptable horse here. I still haven’t figured out what I’m going to do with him in this race and surely the way the track is playing matters as well but it would not be a shock to see him upset this relatively ordinary group.
Creative Minister - This Creative Cause colt was heavily bet for his debut at Gulfstream this Winter despite McPeek horses rarely taking big money first time out. He ran second that day finishing with a strong late rally to just miss. Broke his maiden second time out in the slop at Keeneland and overcame a tardy start to clear an entry level allowance on the Derby undercard. Wheels back on short rest (like 5 others in here) and his connections had to ante up $150k to supplement him as he wasn’t nominated to the Triple Crown Series (it’s why you pay the $600 even if it’s a longshot at the time lol). He just ran a lifetime top for the third time in three tries and was fast enough (2.75 TG) to have a chance to get on the board here.
Fenwick - I don’t know if there is any connection between the horse and Fenwick Equestrian who makes really great horse blankets among other products. As for his chances in this race, well he has been a 🐢 for the vast majority of his races and his winning the Preakness would be an even bigger shocker than the horse who isn’t here, was in the Derby. His trainer is talking about sending him to the lead which I suppose is possible but this entire scenario seems to be an exercise in futility.
Secret Oath - She bounced back from a poor steer in the Arkansas Derby to prove to be much the best over an excellent group of fillies when capturing the Kentucky Oaks. Lukas has never been afraid to race top fillies against colts and Secret Oath fits in this spot though the pace scenario might be against her unlike in the Oaks. On TG she is the fastest horse in the race by a small margin but she will also be getting 5 pounds which is approx equal to 1 pt. Can she win? Absolutely.
Early Voting - If I knew for sure that the plan was go to the lead I’d be higher on his chances than if he is going to try to rate. Assumed that was going to be the plan until his trainer mentioned that he would rather see him with a target which of course means he might not be in front. Perhaps a Fenwick kamikaze try might be brewing and Jose Ortiz can get him so settle off of that one but I’m not a big proponent of wagering on horses changing tactics unless I’m getting a large price which this one certainly won’t be. I might look dumb if he goes to the front, gets the half in 47.2 and wins by 3 which isn’t out of the realm of possibilities but it wouldn’t be the first time that happened.
Happy Jack - I have seen several people tout this horse as a potential spoiler in here and I have to ask…WHY???? He hasn’t taken a step forward, has never run fast and seems to be a Calumet “let’s run in big races at long prices and pray” theory horse. I’m sure every time I publicly toss a horse like this there will be someone trolling by saying “he didn’t like Rich Strike either” and to that I say please keep wagering, we need your money in the pools like Dracula 🧛♂️ needs a type O meal.
Armagnac - He is actually coming into this with the least rest having won an allowance race at Santa Anita over another former Baffert refugee High Connection on the Sunday after Derby day. Went wire to wire in that race, setting moderate fractions over an ordinary group and hardly looking like the type of effort that would make someone say “hey let’s ship 2000 miles and run in the Preakness” but here we are. He ran a lifetime top under ideal conditions that day but is still too slow and doesn’t figure to get anything close to that same setup.
Epicenter - Will be the overwhelming favorite in here at somewhere in the 4/5 neighborhood (IMO) and that isn’t a community that I often visit. He is versatile, talented and ran well enough to win the Derby though he didn’t. That said he isn’t really much faster than some of the other contenders and perhaps Rosario feeling a little too confident stays wide and opens the door for one of them? I can’t argue that on paper and visually he isn’t the horse to beat because he is but he will be somewhat over bet and playing over bet horses is bad for your health.
Skippylongstocking - Son of Preakness winner Exaggerator has improved considerably his last two to put him in the mix for an ‘on the board’ finish if Alvarado can workout some sort of trip and he gets the required fast pace. I’d guess he’d regress rather than improve though I don’t have a great deal of evidence to support either side of that coin.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Epicenter
Preakness Undercard Thoughts
Maiden Special Weight (race 3) - Evan Harlan is a Sean Feld horse through and through (By Temple City out of Bullet Train (GB) mare) but the old Harvey Pack adage about not betting a horse at a short price being asked to do something it’s never done before applies here. If the price is square (4-1 or up) check out Amarillo. Matz is strong first time blinks/blinks on (23% +$4.88 ROI) and this one is also 1st time gelding off a deceptive decent race at GP back in March. Airspeed Velocity is another that might be worth a look at anything near the morning line of 10-1
Maryland Sprint (Gr III) - A more closely matched group than it might initially appear on paper with plenty of speed signed on. I have no idea why trainer Gary Capuano left Luis Saez and Tyler Gafflione in the jocks room to ride McLovin Enriquez who is a 5 pound bug on Threes Over Deuces in a graded stakes but at least it will help the price. McLovin actually made a few tactical errors in his latest start which cost him second but this race may fall into his lap if he can get the jump on the other second tier horses behind what figures to be a lively pace. He may not be quite good enough but he should be 20-1+ and this is a field full of horses with flaws.
Gallorette (Gr III) - Technical Analysis (IRE) is going to be odds on here and has the advantage of looking like the controlling speed as well. Her figures do not tower over the field like you’d think a short priced favorites would but she caught a couple soft turf courses last fall and stumbled out of the gate in her first start as a 4 year old. Might consider using her on top and trying Karakatsie behind her for “El Chapo” De La Cerda but of course price matters.
Skipat- If Cilla is on her A game after a deceptively good season debut against grade I fillies at Keeneland in the Madison, she should be tough against a pretty solid group for a non-graded stakes. Beyond her there are a lot of different ways you could go as not much separates the rest of them in a really interesting race.
Dinner Party (Gr. II) - A soft as Charmin grade II grass race has Set Piece as a 9/5 morning line favorite who has been 7th his last two starts, only wins in Kentucky and is a dead closer in a field with what looks to be a potentially glacial early pace. Perhaps he is just too good against this shaky bunch but we can’t recommend. The only horse who looks remotely interesting is Tango Tango Tango who was pretty slow for a stakes horse last year but has really gotten good as a four year old and should get the jump on the favorite.
Chick Lang (Gr. III) - A mega pint of speed signed on in this salty grade III. I don’t have much to say other than I’m gonna probably dabble a little with Alottahope at a long price as he is the one horse that might be sitting on a big race and could get a great pace scenario to close ground into.
James Murphy - We thought that the three year old turf runners were not a real strong group while handicapping the American Turf on the undercard of the Derby two weeks ago and this years Jimmy Murphy doesn’t do much to dispel that notion. This a wide open race and I have no words of wisdom, you are on your own here.
Sir Barton - Another perplexing three year old race, I’m not really feeling all that confident about anyone in here but I will be fading Ethereal Road and perhaps trying Mr Jefferson. Should be decent pace for him to sit behind and while I can’t tell you if he is gonna be George or Thomas on Saturday, make sure you get a square price on him
Jim McKay Turf Sprint - Turf sprints aren’t our thing and Carotari looks to be the favorite in here but we are going to try a horse with a win over the course in this very same race (2020) that hasn’t been on the grass in awhile in Hollis. If he wins it will be like Christmas 🎄 and mom will be cooking chicken 🍗 and collard greens 🥬
🔥 🎙Big Monday is going to be GIANT this week as we recap the weekend results and talk real about the Triple Crown, huge mistakes that might be made and answer a couple of racing industry questions that never get answered! Believe me punches are rarely pulled and Monday we will be throwing haymakers! 🥊
🎙Plus a special State of the Game in Maryland show with Frank Vespe of The Racing Biz this coming Wednesday.
Last weeks show ⬇️
📽 Old School video of the week 2 sponsored by Game of Silks
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Good article Chuck really enjoyed it!