Is a rising star to be found at FG?
Real Writing on Racing 💯
Today’s Risen Star stakes at Fairgrounds is named for the best son of the great Secretariat trained by an New Orleans original Louis Roussel. Risen Star won the Louisiana Derby in 1988 before a tough trip got him beat in that years Kentucky Derby. He rebounded to take the Preakness before crushing the Belmont field that year by 14 lengths, unfortunately his last start before being injured and retiring to stud. Like his legendary sire, Risen Star wasn’t much of a stallion and sadly succumbed to colic on March 13, 1998 which was exactly ten years from the day of his Louisiana Derby victory.
Today’s race is the first of the 50 point preps for this year's Kentucky Derby and the winner will more or less have a ticket to the starting gate on May 7th. It’s a terrific card with full fields and what seems on paper to be a lot of beatable favorites.
Risen Star Grade 2 3yo $400000 1 1/8 Dirt
Pappacap - comes in off of decent 3rd in Lecomte when he made a menacing run up the inside heading into the long stretch of the Fairgrounds as the 3-2 favorite. The Gun Runner colt flattened out late, not being able to get by early pacesetter Epicenter or hold off eventually winner Call Me Midnight. He was aided by the track playing against speed that day and the pace he got to run into was faster than par. Today’s race doesn’t appear to have as many early speed types as the LeComte did which doesn’t help his chances. He also regressed on speed figures to a 6 (TG) which seems to be a common occurrence for horses exiting last fall’s weak Breeders Cup Juvy. Casse switches riders to Tyler Gafflione here and while we don’t hate his chances to get a minor placing, we don’t love him either.
Russian Tank - the only possible reason to bet even a single dollar on the overmatched son of Tourist is his name considering current geo-political events in Eastern Europe. Hopefully he doesn’t get in the way of any actual contenders.
Trafalgar - in the preview for the Lecomte we pointing out that trainer Al Stall was developing the Lord Nelson colt, old school style, starting off with a sprint race last summer at Saratoga, progressing to a one turn mile race at Churchill when breaking his maiden, then again stretching out, this time to two turns in an allowance race over the track at FG before tackling stakes competition. He didn’t get a great trip last out in the Lecomte as CJ Hernandez placed him wide coming out of the first turn and he never seemed all that comfortable after that. He made a mild run turning for home but flattened out mid-stretch most likely from ground loss. He did finally break through on TG recording a 7.5 after having run 9.5 in his three other starts. Stall adds blinkers today and with a slower pace expected they may sharpen up his early speed and allow Hernandez to get a better early stalking position laying off likely pacesetter Epicenter. Horses like this often get overlooked along the Derby trail because they aren’t flashy and don’t run enormous speed figures but he is a on-the-board contender at a huge price, albeit with another step forward needed.
Tawny Port - in a different trainers barn this $430k yearling by the sire that brought us American Pharoah would be a star horse occupying stall number one. In the Brad Cox barn this horse is a three year old that has been relegated to the C team at Turfway Park. Both his races over the synthetic track were visually impressive though both were contested with faster than usual early pace which set the table for Tawny Port. He did run a nice TG (7) last out winning an allowance race after encountering trouble early but doesn’t appear to have much tactical speed at all. The race really needs to implode for this guy to win unless he displays drastically different tactics on the ‘traditional’ dirt.
Epicenter - He set an ambitious pace in the Lecomte with jockey Joel Rosario choosing to outrun longshot speedball Surfer Dude rather than stalk him as he had done when winning the inaugural edition of the Gun Runner stakes in late December. Today’s race does not appear to offer much in the way of other need the lead, early pace types to press him early and Rosario should be able to set a much more reasonable tempo. I am skeptical that the colts sire Not This Time is going to produce horses that are effective at the Derby distance of 1 1/4 and this 1 1/8 today might be stretching the outer limits of what Epicenter can go but if the track is playing fair or slightly tilted towards speed (it’s a big day so it’s not like we haven’t seen that before) I give him a huge shot to get the money today.
Pioneer of Medina - has taken the road rarely traveled for a Todd Pletcher Derby prep entrant having started his career at Monmouth before making a detour south to try the Tapioca surface at Gulfstream on Halloween. Race number three found him at Tampa Bay in December winning a relatively modest maiden race before kicking it up a notch winning again in allowance company when shipped from Pletcher winter headquarters at Palm Beach Downs to get a spin over the New Orleans surface. He hasn’t run particularly fast and while he does posses tactical speed in a race lacking much of it, Luis Saez has his work cutout for him to even get on the board in here. .
Zandon - is the opposite of Pioneer of Medina as he is the prototypical Chad Brown Derby prep runner. Fast from the start and lightly raced, he exits the controversial Remsen Stakes (Gr. 2) at Aqueduct where Irad Ortiz on the winner Mo Donegal went all ‘Bill Laimbeer’ on Johnny Velasquez aboard Zandon, throwing elbows like he was boxing out for a rebound not striding towards the finishline. To his credit, Zandon never gave up despite being squeezed into tight quarters and appears to be a really talented colt. That being said he is also lacking experience (though he is the only horse with a race at 1 1/8) and we are skeptical about horses existing the often ridiculously deep Aqueduct surface. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he was able to win here as he clearly has a great deal of ability, I’m just guessing that his lack of experience as well as his third new rider in three races and shipping in over another new surface might be enough to get him beat today. As the old Hermis tip sheet used to say, “tab for future”.
Smile Happy - it is a little known fact that I was Runhappy’s first racetrack trainer as he was sent to me at Monmouth Park when he first shipped north from South Carolina where he did his early training under Travis Durr. He was blazing fast from day one as Travis had indicated that he was showing down south. However he wasn’t particularly advanced physically despite being a big colt and took some time to grow into his large frame. So when his progeny struggled from the outset as they debuted as two year olds in the summertime, it wasn’t all that surprising to me. Without commenting too negatively (we have been instructed to be more positive in this business though Marcus Vitali obviously took that approach too literally) on the training of the 2015 sprint Eclipse winner, there is no doubt in my mind that using a more…uh… “traditional” method of training program Runhappy could have been an effective graded stakes performer up to 1 1/16 and perhaps a little longer than that. However…I’m completely against Smile Happy today and not bullish on his Kentucky Derby chances moving forward. Clearly he is a talented colt and his two races show more than typical ability. A LOT will be said about the Kentucky Jockey Club stakes at Churchill that he won with a strong rally in the stretch as it’s as been labeled a “key race” by those whom designate such things. (Wagering side note- key races often lead to horses being over bet) I’m just not a proponent of betting horses off of big fig two year old race and time off and I think that coming out of key races, connections/jockey’s get too confident and choose to steer wider to stay out of trouble which is a negative in most cases. If Smile Happy beats me today I will be happy for Kenny as I do like him personally but I am fading his horse here. As for the Kentucky Derby until someone wins using the lightly raced, fresh horse method, I’m betting against those types as it hasn’t worked in like 150 years.
Bodock - exits a pair of sprint wins where he chased pace and finished up well. Big leap in TG figs from first race to latest (15 to 8) and it’s unlikely that he has another needed jump in him today. Could potentially press pace from outside but I’m more inclined to believe that they try to get same stalking trip everyone else will be looking to get here on the stretch out.
Slow Down Andy - a Paul Reddam runner through and through as he raced the sire (Nyquist), the dam (Edwina E) and the dams sire (Square Eddie). His win last out in the Los Al Futurity was flattered immensely when the horse he beat that day, Messier, came back to destroy a small field in the Robert Lewis (Gr. 3). He has a similar TG pattern to Classic Causeway who won the Sam Davis last weekend though the field that Slow Down Andy faces here is far tougher than that group. He possesses tactical speed and will likely be sending hard from the outside post to try to get position before they hit the first turn. In my view if he can find a good spot off of Epicenter’s flank without using too much energy he is the main danger to that one though the Hot Rod Charlie memory and Messier’s latest might depress the price.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears Risen Star spot play - Epicenter
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