Going in Circles Weekend Stakes Preview
Real Writing on Racing 💯
The Fifty Pointers are here
The pace of the Kentucky Derby trail picks up this weekend as a trio of 50 point races in New York, Florida and California are scheduled be run. The Gotham is a one turn mile at Aqueduct and doesn’t appear to have any serious Derby contenders at this point but perhaps one of the late bloomers can step his game up and get in the mix. A grade 3 race worth $300000, the Gotham is scheduled to go off at 5:07 eastern. The Tampa Bay Derby at 1 1/16th may be contested over a wet surface with the forecast calling for showers all afternoon in Oldsmar. That race which is a grade 2 with a $400000 purse has drawn a field of 12 with Sam Davis winner Candy Man Rocket listed as the 2-1 morning line choice and has a 5:25 post. Santa Anita’s San Felipe, a strong grade 2 with a $300000 purse will almost certainly be contested over a fast track with Baffert’s Life is Good trying to win his third straight facing 6 other rivals including barn mate Medina’s Spirit with a listed post time of 5:45 eastern.
The Gotham
Atlantic Road - Just broke his maiden in a relatively slow time after shipping back north from Gulfstream. Hard to recommend in here.
The Reds - Another maiden breaker, this Tonalist colt is actually cutting back in distance from 1 1/8. He has been pretty consistent but appears to be a cut below the best in this spot.
Highly Motivated - a son of the super sire Into Mischief, this guy makes his 3 year old debut in today’s race. When we last saw him, he was running a big figure winning the Nyquist over a solid field on the Breeders Cup day undercard. Shipping up from trainer Brown’s winter base at Payson Park, he has a series of steady works and looms a short price with what would look to be a solid pace to run into. Brown has been running a clinic at Aqueduct, winning at 45%. JJ Castellano is in town to ride.
Wipe the Slate - ships east for Doug O’Neill after bombing in the Robert Lewis last out. He gets blinkers off here and might be looking to get a stalking trip here cutting back to one turn. The Nyquist colt has ability and one turn might be a better option for him at this stage in his career. One to consider at a long price.
Crowded Trade - is the second horse in the Gotham from the connections of Highly Motivated. This More than Ready colt won his debut at Aqueduct at 6 furlongs 37 days ago, making up a lot of ground to wear down the leaders over a ridiculously slow main track surface. His speed figure came back much higher than the raw time would lead you to believe though he does lose winning rider Franco with Eric Cancel picking up the mount. Look for him to be rolling late.
Capo Kane - The Jerome winner found 1 1/8 of the Withers a bit further than he wants to go at this point against this caliber of competition. He is a confirmed front runner who looks like he will have some company looking for that lead down the backstretch to his outside. Has two sharp works since his last but the pace scenario in this spot doesn’t look favorable for him.
Freedom Fighter - Baffert ships this speedy colt East after a bang-up 2nd place finish in the San Vincente, losing by 1/2 length to his highly touted stablemate Concert Tour. He has two rapid works since that race and has shown speed and tenacity in both his starts. California speed is always dangerous and the Santa Anita surface isn’t like the old paved highway so the Aqueduct track might not be a huge change. I’d like him better at 5-1 rather than 5-2 to be Captain Obvious honest.
Weyburn - Took three starts to break his maiden as he showed early foot after adding blinkers in start number 2 for Jimmy Jerkens. Pioneer of the Nile colt is bred to run all day being out of an AP Indy mare and might be a little better around two turns. He hasn’t run in 90 days and may find himself chasing the fast pace from the outside post position. May be along for a share late if Trevor McCarthy can get him to rate a touch
BONUS COVERAGE - Barry “the Sniper” Spears selection: Crowded Trade
Tampa Bay Derby
My Liberty - Seems in deep water here after breaking maiden in last.
Super Strong - The Puerto Rican invader has a tough task ahead of him in this spot. This is his first time in the US after winning a stakes in his debut at Camarero going 7 furlongs on a muddy track. It’s hard to get a line on his performance as the competition in Puerto Rico is difficult to assess. His dam (as pointed out by Bill @thruthebridle on Twitter) was a good mid-Atlantic area sprinter which makes you wonder if the two turns is ideal? I don’t believe this is the second coming of Mr Frisky.
Candy Man Rocket - winner of the Sam Davis four weeks ago, is tabbed as the 2-1 morning line favorite for this race. Junior Alvarado worked out a perfect trip last out and his speed figures while steady are still a cut below the best in the division though the sunny side of that argument is that he figures to improve.
King of Dreams - The only thing I can say with conviction about this seemingly misplaced son of Air Force Blue is that if by some miracle he actually wins this race….his trainer won’t be looking for another prep race to run him in. #JCLIKESLAYOFFS
Boca Boy - Set a solid pace in the Sam Davis before tiring in the stretch to finish 4th. Figures to be sent to the lead once again though he might just not be good enough to wire this relatively soft group.
Awesome Gerry - ran third around one turn in the Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream in early January after setting the pace. Was terrible with a wide trip in the Holy Bull and takes blinkers off trying two turns for a second time. Not sure what kind of trip that he wants or will get but there aren’t many spots around for a 3 year old with two wins so the Tampa Bay Derby it is.
Moonlight Strike - has some wet track success, breaking his maiden with a good figure at GPW. Came back to win a soft allowance spot in which he crawled home (last quarter in 27.2) and bore out in the stretch. Followed that up with a dull effort in the Smarty Jones and doesn’t seem to have a path to success and may just serve as a rabbit for stablemate Super Strong who has the same owners.
Hidden Stash - we were heavily invested in this Constitution colt in the Sam Davis and truth be told he got a really nice inside trip from Hector Diaz who has been replaced by Rafael Bejarano. He regressed slightly on the performance figures and has a bad habit of not changing leads in the stretch. Has a few sharp Payson Park works and figures to get a decent trip again though the price won’t be a good this time around.
Unbridled Honor - scored last out in maiden race at Tampa after disappointing twice at Aqueduct. He has a tall mountain to climb here as he hasn’t run a race near good enough to contend here.
Helium - Ships up from Palm Meadows where he is under the care of Nick Tomlinson for trainer Mark Casse. The son of Ironicus easily won both of his 7 furlong, synthetic surface starts last fall at Woodbine including the Display Stakes. He ran pretty solid speed figures for a 2 year old in both his starts and could be a factor at a nice price though interestingly he is not Triple Crown nominated.
Promise Keeper - Broke his maiden impressively when stretched out to a mile over a sealed, sloppy track at Gulfstream a month ago. Set the pace that day after being frosty on the board in both starts as the Pletcher maiden winners always seem to be short priced. He wore front bandages in his maiden win which is also highly unusual for this barn. Gonna pass and if he wins, he wins.
Sittin on Go - winner of the Iroquois back in September at Churchill Downs, he hasn’t shown a thing his last three starts, getting smoked by 17 lengths in the Holy Bull. As we have said before, Romans runners often have erratic form but you’d better demand a huge price if you are thinking of wagering on him.
BONUS COVERAGE - Barry “the Sniper” Spears selection: Hidden Stash
San Felipe
Life is Good - Life is Good when you have horses like this in your barn. The son of Into Mischief is looking like his purchase tag of $525000 was a bargain after his first two career starts. Sent off at 1-5 in his stakes debut last out in the Sham in early January, Life is Good opened up a long lead under confident handling from Mike Smith and held off his stable mate Medina Spirit while the rest of the field was in a different area code. He has the typical Baffert workout pattern of long and strong since and looms the controlling speed from the inside post. However this is a really tough group he faces and certainly doesn’t look like it will be a walk in the park despite his predicted short price.
Dream Shake - Shocked the world when upsetting the ludicrously hyped Bezos in a maiden special weight race at Santa Anita a month ago. Sent off at 20-1, Dream Shake roared past the field in the stretch and scored by a widening 4 3/4 lengths. What makes the race impressive besides his actual performance is the facts that trainer Eurton rarely wins with first timers let alone in dominant fashion. This is a lot to ask of a horse with one career race but this is a really good horse.
Medina Spirt - is better than a plucky little OBS June bargain purchase that wound up in the Baffert barn next to horses like Life is Good. The son of Protonico showed grit and determination in chasing that one to a close defeat in the Sham and doubled down on those two traits when holding off Roman Centurian and Hot Rod Charlie in the Robert Lewis after setting scorching early fractions. He tuned up by going 6f in 111.1 last Saturday and gets Hall of Famer Johnny Velazquez in the saddle for the first time.
None Above the Law - He doesn’t look like he is competitive in here without the law being broken
The Great One - His namesake has been in the news lately due to the unfortunate passing of his father. This Nyquist colt kinda knocked around looking like he had some potential till the last race where he just rocketed around the track, scoring by 14 and running a giant figure. That is his only race with lasix and while it’s hard to believe that it could make that big of a difference, his running style clashes with the Baffert pair and he may be looking at a three wide trip which won’t do him any favors.
Govenor’s Party - uh no.
Roman Centurian - Ran well to just miss in the Robert Lewis. A confirmed closer, he should get plenty of pace in here to set up his late run. If Juan Hernandez can avoid getting hung too wide on the turns, this son of Empire Maker might be good enough to get the job done in here.
BONUS COVERAGE - Barry “the Sniper” Spears selection: Life is Good