Going in Circles Weekend Preview
Real Writing on Racing 💯 (Presented by BRL Equine And Pleasant Acres Farm)
The Toyota Bluegrass Stakes-Grade 2 $800000 (100 point Kentucky Derby prep) at Keeneland
Hidden Stash - Runner up in the Tampa Bay Derby after a wide trip, draws well here though like many others may be impacted by the lack of pace signed on here. Jumped up figure-wise and while he is still a little slower than the top horses, he has a chance to get on the board here.
Untreated - Dominated a maiden race at Tampa after the trainer change from Chad Brown to Todd Pletcher and stretching out from a sprint to a two turns. Will have to improve again to be a factor here and may be able to use this experience to springboard to a Preakness start as he wouldn’t have the required points for the Derby without finishing in the top 2 which seems like a long shot here. Joel Rosario who has been running a clinic in the Triple Crown preps takes the mount.
Highly Motivated - Showed talent as a closing sprinter last season, winning the Nyquist on the Breeders Cup undercard over this same surface in track record (albeit on a scorching fast track) while running serious speed figures for a 2 year old. Stumbled out of the gate in his 3 year old debut in the Gotham at Aqueduct March 6, was stuck in a position behind horses that he didn’t look particularly comfortable in and rallied mildly to be third behind Weyburn and stable mate Crowded Trader. The track surface at Aqueduct that day was very slow and a return to a tighter surface should be a positive. He hasn’t shown a lot of early speed in his races so far but with the lack of pace in here it wouldn’t surprise to see him near or possibly even on the lead in this spot. It remains to be seen if he can shake loose in here or if Luis Saez on Essential Quality will let him out of his sights but he looms as the only logical potential upsetter.
Essential Quality - The 3/5 morning line favorite and current future book Derby favorite, the 2 year old champ draws an excellent post here. There isn’t much to say about him other than he is fast and versatile, having demonstrated the ability to adapt to different race scenarios in his undefeated, 4 race career. His speed figure in his 3yo debut, the Southwest where he dusted off a decent field over a sloppy track, was an improvement over his two year old numbers and made him the fastest horse left on the Derby trail. Having said that, the Bluegrass isn’t the goal, the next race is and while it’s a pretty weak argument, perhaps a talented horse like Highly Motivated sneaking off to a soft lead might give Elusive Quality too much to do? It seems unlikely but stranger things have happened.
Rombauer - Carries the weight of my holding a future book ticket on him at 109-1, the lack of pace surely looks to be an issue for this Twirling Candy colt. He has had a curious route to a potential start in the Derby, scratching out of a Southern California Derby prep to ship to Golden Gate where he won the El Camino Real over a weak group while only earning 10 points. Dormant since then, he appears in the most pace challenged field as a dead, one run closer in more or less his one chance to earn points. Trainer McCarthy publicly voiced his issues with the scheduling which leads one to believe that someone else is choosing these spots. Picks up Geroux for this spot and while I believe he has talent, it’s a tall task ahead of him to even hit the board here. Closers should race more than speed horses on the Derby trail unless they have the appropriate amount of points because they are far more likely to encounter trouble or lac of pace issues.
Leblon - Seems overmatched and is another horse lacking early speed.
Hush of a Storm - Like what Bill Morey is doing here, taking a shot on the dirt with the Battaglia winner whose only dirt race was a non-effort in his debut sprinting at Churchill. He could have opted to run in last weeks Jeff Ruby but chose the dirt spot to see if his colt can handle it well enough against top class company to earn his way into the Derby. He isn’t fast enough so far and his dirt prowess is unknown but he isn’t running scared and connections should be commended for that.
Sittin on Go - He has been terrible since winning the Iroquois last September at Churchill. Has shown little in his two three year old races but Romans horses have an odd way of improving in form once they get back to Kentucky. However this one would take a great leap of faith as there is not much to believe that he can turn it around in this spot.
Keepmeinmind - Ran flat in delayed 3 yo debut and is another whose back is up against the wall as he doesn’t have enough points and this is a very difficult race in which to earn them with his style of running. Should have raced in the Southwest and tried to fit in three preps as Cohen is gonna have to move earlier than he probably wants to and depending on how the track is playing that may seal his fate.
Barry’s bonus selection - #2 Untreated
The Wood Memorial - Grade 2 - $750000 (100 point Kentucky Derby prep) at Aqueduct
Brooklyn Strong - Bargain OBS purchase ($5000) he broke his maiden for 40000 in Delaware before running third and winning in NYB stakes company. Followed up that good form with a neck score in the Grade 2 Remson over this same surface though on a sloppy track, defeating Known Agenda among others. Unseen since then, this is a last chance saloon type race for him if they hope to make it into the field of the Derby. He is kind of the forgotten horse but has some tactical speed to use to achieve good early position and might be a danger if he can workout a decent trip.
Crowded Trade - Ran a big race in the Gotham to just miss after stumbling at the start in just his second career race. This will be his initial start around two turns and while his pedigree doesn’t scream distance, the 1 1/8 should be within his capabilities. He should get a good trip though we don’t know how he will handle an inside trip as he has been on the outside in both of his starts. He is among a group of 4-5 that have a pretty decent shot of winning.
Bourbonic - If there is one sure thing in racing, it’s Calumet Farm is not afraid to run a long shot in a stakes race. Comes into this off of a not so close runner up placing to Market Maven in a Parx allowance race. Is bred to relish longer distances but at this point in his career this seems like an ambitious spot.
Risk Taking - The winner of the Withers way back in February, he already owns a 1 1/8 win over the Aqueduct surface. Megdalia D’oro colt is 2 for 2 since adding blinkers and picks up Irad Ortiz and which might tip the favoritism toward his corner. Not sure he beat much in his stakes win and while I respect his ability, I will be looking at other options at a better price.
Dynamic One - Union Rags colt was shipped north from the Pletcher winter base at Palm Beach Downs and recorded his first victory in his 4th try back on March 7. That race was at the Wood distance of 1 1/8 though it was completed in a glacial 1:55.1 over the sometimes ridiculously slow Aqueduct surface. Seems like he is going to have to jump up to even be competitive in here.
Prevalence - The “buzz” horse, he ships north from Gulfstream where he went 2 for 2, breaking his maiden in a cakewalk on the Pegasus undercard and followed that up with an easy score against a mediocre group of allowance horses at a mile. He hasn’t had the proverbial straw in his path and this is going to be a far tougher assignment, not only because of the talent level of his competition, but because the two turn race dynamics are so much different. He has drawn inside most of the other logical speed horses which might force jockey Gafflione’s hand going into the first turn. The colt is clearly a very talented horse but this is a lot to ask and we will know a lot more about him after this race. I’m guessing that it’s a little too much for him to overcome.
Candy Man Rocket - The winner of the Sam Davis at Tampa, he was dreadful in the subsequent Tampa Bay Derby where he was rated behind horses unlike his for two races where he effectively was free running. He may be a little too slow anyway and I’m not high on his chance to rebound in this spot.
Weyburn - The upset winner of the Gotham, he already has enough Derby points to make the field but the connections will only go if they believe he has a legitimate chance to win. He followed up a maiden win in December with a stirring stretch drive to hold off Crowded Trade in the Gotham under Trevor McCarthy. Jimmy Jerkens said that he might have opted for an allowance race instead of the stakes last time but the race didn’t fill. He has speed which coming from an outside post means that McCarthy will almost certainly put him in the race early, perhaps pressing Prevalence or setting the pace if that one takes back at all. You won’t get 46-1 today but he might get overlooked in the wagering and might be the play here.
Market Maven - Comes out of Parx allowance win for unheralded connections. This PA bred gelding has gone wire to wire to win his last two and has the decidedly lacking in major league stakes experience Dexter Haddock aboard, making it a little bit of a mystery as to the tactics that he may employ here. He probably can’t win the race but he sure can affect how it’s run.
Barry’s bonus selection - #6 Prevalence
Santa Anita Derby - Grade 1- 750000 (100 point Kentucky Derby prep) at Santa Anita
Roman Centurian - Empire Maker colt was a dull 4th beaten 13 lights in the San Felipe after a solid showing in the Robert Lewis where he was 2nd by a neck to Medina Spirit, beating subsequent Louisiana Derby winner Hot Rod Charlie by a nose. Jockey Juan Hernandez is going to have to try to work out a trip in this 10 horse field as Roman Centurian doesn’t possess any early speed and will have to shake loose turning for home and try to find that closing kick again.
Dream Shake - Powered to upset maiden score first time out back in February, jumped right into the stakes company fire in the San Felipe last out and futility chased the runaway winner Life is Good, weakening in the final 1/8 to finish 3rd. Has trained great since that start and should benefit greatly from the experience. If Prat can work out a decent trip, he will be a big factor in here.
Rock Your World - Inexplicably added to the Derby Futures pool last weekend where he amazingly closed at only 31-1. I’m not sure what the allure is as he is a winner of both his starts but they were on the grass and last out he beat a 5 horse field in the Pasadena. Clearly is a talented horse but I’m tossing him at anything close to his underlaid price of 4-1 on the morning line trying dirt against a pretty solid group here.
Parnelli - A distant third in the Sham behind Life is Good and Medina Spirit, he was in good position early before a steady fade in the Robert Lewis and while he is adding blinkers which may sharpen his speed, the pace in here looks like it will be rather brisk. Would be a major surprise.
Back Ring Luck - Claimed last fall at Churchill Downs out a maiden 30000 race, this Malibu Moon gelding won a 6 horse allowance last time out at Oaklawn Park by a head at 23-1. Has some early speed to add to the pace mix but doesn’t appear to be good enough.
Ottothelegend - Broke his maiden at Oaklawn Park last out in his second start. Ships west for Steve Asmussen who hasn’t enjoyed a great deal of success in Southern California and this horse probably won’t be changing that in here.
Medina Spirit - *Full disclosure: We have a nice KY Derby future ticket on him. Gritty colt isn’t your typical Baffert Derby trail type of horse. He was a bargain 35k purchase and is by Protonico who stands in Florida for 5k but he doesn’t seem to do anything but run well. Medina Spirit has clearly been the 2nd best three year old in the Southern California preps behind his barn mate Life is Good and looms as the one to beat here. Has early speed if Johnny Velazquez decides to use it and has also shown a willingness to battle on in the stretch and is a tough customer to pass. His speed figs have been fast and consistent and any improvement will make him really tough in this spot.
Law Professor - May file suit against his connections for jumping him directly into Grade 1 company after breaking his maiden last out. Dream Shake drilled him by 18 lengths in his first start though adding blinkers and stretching out to a mile seemed to work as he rallied to upset a maiden special weight field at 20-1 in his second start. Don’t think he will be passing this test.
The Great One - His connections are hoping he fares better than Gretzky the Great did last weekend in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. Didn’t show up in the San Felipe, and not sure how he can change his luck here from post 9. Jockey Cedillo may elect to blast off from the outside and try to clear the field going into the first turn but is going to have to go awfully fast in order to do so.
Defunded - a rare 3 year old gelding in the Baffert barn, he rallied into a fast pace to break his maiden last out at 6f. Baffert squeezed in three works since his race on March 6, choosing to work him every 5 days which is not something you see often these days. It’s a tough task to go from 6f maiden to 1 1/8 grade 1 and post 10 isn’t gonna make it any easier but I would not be surprised to see him rally to get in the first 4.
Barry’s Bonus Selection - #7 Medina Spirit
Video of the week
The Going in Circles Digest is sponsored by:
