Going in Circles Digest Weekend Preview
Real Writing on Racing 💯
Eclipsing the awards 🚫🏆
In sports the object of the games is to win. Often lessons are gleaned from the competition about trying your best and never giving up and other phrases of encouragement meant to inspire those who aren’t doing the winning. It’s true that adversity does help build character and let’s not forget that these are still just games we are talking about, but clearly winning matters as it determines who is considered the best at whatever endeavor is being played. A large part of the process in trying to determine who is the “best” is via the assigning of awards. Most Valuable player is a tad bit nebulous in mainstream sports because ones value to their team is rarely an a absolute. The general thought process is that the best player on one of the best teams who is regarded as having the best year gets the award. Everyone who is given a vote gets to choose their own parameters as to who they believe deserves their vote and often a narrative develops during the season as to who is most deserving. For whatever reason the voters in the big sports, NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, seem reluctant to continue to vote for the same person year after year (it could be argued that players like LeBron James or Mike Trout should win the award every year). There are no rules regarding suspensions, violations of the leagues various substance abuse or PED standards when it comes to casting ballots. However based on the baseball writers unwritten stance against those offenders or presumed offenders when it comes to the hall of fame (Barry Bonds & Roger Clemons, et al), it’s highly unlikely that a player who runs afoul of drug rules would have any prayer of winning a year end award during the same season of that violation.
That is clearly not the case in horse racing, as a series of violations by the sports biggest name concerning one the very best horses, didn’t seem to affect the results of the Eclipse Awards. Gamine trained by Bob Baffert was a runaway winner of the champion female sprinter award after impressively capturing several of the sports most prestigious sprint races namely the grade 1 Test at Saratoga and the grade 1 Breeders Cup filly sprint. In both races and several others throughout the year, Gamine showed she was a hugely talented and blazing fast filly as she dominated the competition with her worst race coming at the decidedly non-sprint distance of 1 1/8 in the Kentucky Oaks where she was third. She also was disqualified from two separate races including that third place finish in the Oaks for medication violations that were revealed in post race testing. What are the chances that LeBron James would be still voted MVP of the NBA had he gotten suspended twice for legal but still potentially performance enhancing drugs in a given season? What are the chances that his coach would have been voted the award for coach of the year the same year that LeBron and another of his teammates (Gamine wasn’t the lone horse with violations out of Baffert’s barn in 2020) all received drug related suspensions? Try zero point zero percent.
It’s true that human sports and racing while having a lot of similarities, do have some major differences as well. Horses don’t treat themselves and aren’t making the determination of what they are receiving in regards to medication, supplements or even food to be completely honest. Horse racing is also has far stricter protocols and screens for far more drugs at much lower levels than the major leagues do despite what the general opinion in horse racing circles that drug testing in racing is lacking. Of course the horses don’t really care if they win a trophy either.
It’s extremely rare for a horse or trainer to have multiple violations in a given year and still be voted an Eclipse award. As a matter of fact I don’t believe that any horse has ever been disqualified from a race for a medication violation the same year that they won an Eclipse award (correct me if I missed one). Baffert didn’t win the Eclipse for top trainer despite his relatively strong resume including Gamine and campaigning Kentucky Derby and Breeders Cup Classic winning, horse of the year Authentic but he did receive way more than a handful of votes in finishing second.
Where am I going with this? Well to be frank, I could care less about these awards personally as the top of the sport has seemingly lost its way in regard to seeking the actual competition that the foundation of the game was built upon. The best horses are campaigned to avoid other good horses till the Breeders Cup which creates cupcake schedules and lessens the importance of many of our traditionally important races in the spring, summer and fall outside of the Triple Crown and Breeders Cup events. It’s a failure of the sport in general to not tweak the way our major stakes are scheduled, in not creating series that culminate in the Breeders Cup races as opposed to the hodge-pudge of races with very little tying them together as we have now. Clearly the connections of top horses deem these awards important as shown by the soft campaigns we often see. Consider the wild yet deserved praise that Swiss Skydivers 2020 schedule received as she competed at different venues, distances and even still took up the challenge of facing males in a Classic race which she rewarded all of us by winning in an epic upset. Her Breeders Cup non-effort however will probably be the lesson that most of the connections of the best horses will remember, a reminder that taking risk has its consequences.
People have asked me what I thought about the Eclipse votes going to same year medication offenders or the fact that Swiss Skydiver wasn’t a finalist for Horse of the Year which was really an inane and mostly meaningless fight. I usually would answer by saying who was champion filly sprinter four year ago or who finished third in the horse of the year voting two years ago? Most of the time those asking got the point as they had no recollection of those names either. In the end the Eclipse Awards are truly only important to those who actually win them and even then in this era of Wal-Mart style training, owning and breeding empires, the trophy might just wind up on a dusty trophy case that gets another addition to it seemingly every year anyway.
This week in KY Derby preps
There are two Derby preps scheduled for today, the grade 3 Withers at Aqueduct and the grade 3 Sam Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. Both races are 10 point events and serve as preps for higher point races next month at both venues (The Tampa Bay Derby and Gotham).
Withers Stakes
This years edition of the Withers (Gr3) has drawn a field of nine including two shippers from Laurel, one from Parx and one from Gulfstream looking to tackle impressive Jerome stakes winner Capo Kane. He jumped up from a Parx maiden special weight win to cruise home in the first Derby prep of the year, scoring by over 6 lengths despite his habit of bearing out in the stretch. Capo Kane figures to get some pace pressure in the Withers which is a two-turn, 1 1/8th race, his first attempt around another bend. Interestingly Capo Kane wasn’t installed as the morning line favorite as the last out maiden winner, Risk Taking for Chad Brown has been tabbed by the linemaker as the 5/2 choice versus 3/1 for Capo Kane. The fact that Risk Taking already has a win at the 1 1/8 distance and is owned and trained by high profile connection was the main reasoning as the speed figure earned wasn’t the fields best and the performance figure (sheet number) places him several lengths behind the fastest in here. Still these are improving young colts and while it’s hard to gauge how much improvement is coming, I’m staying away from hoping for improvement at a short price. The horse with the best performance number in the field is one that also probably has the most difficult task at hand, Mr Doda. He broke his maiden at Parx last out but has been racing at short distances, going 5 1/2 in both his last two including a defeat in maiden claiming company two back. While Capo Kane showed in the Jerome that disregarding Parx form can be a mistake, it would take a monumental effort by Mr Doda to come back to repeat that same number from his last race at 1 1/8. Todd Pletcher has a pair of maiden breakers in here with Aqueduct winner Overtook and Gulfstream winner Donegal Bay. Overtook, who was a pricey yearling at 1 million dollars, was a well beaten 21 lengths behind last weeks Holy Bull winner Greatest Honour two starts back before being greatly aided by a very fast pace in circling the field to score on December 20. His pedigree Curlin-Get Lucky suggests the 1 1/8 is within his wheelhouse but he would need a big step up again to have any chance here. His entrymate Donegal Bay was dull in his debut back in August at Saratoga but his return race on December 12 at Gulfstream was a facile wire to wire score going a mile out of the chute. Florida based horses often have an edge when shipping back to cold weather locales but the question is will Donegal Bay need the lead to run his best and can he even get it here with the front running Capo Kane drawn inside him? Eagle Orb seemed to be no match for the frequently aforementioned Capo Kane in the Jerome but is an interesting contender here at anything close to the 10/1 morning line. He shows pretty steady progression at a variety of distances and does possess tactical speed which may prove valuable here depending on the pace scenario in front of him. Jorge Vargas, Jr. G who has been riding well gets the mount for the first time and if he can get Eagle Orb decent positioning while not getting hung too wide in the first turn, he may prove to be good enough to score the upset. Shackqueenking comes up from Laurel where he already has a two turn stakes win to his credit. He was third at 7f three weeks ago in the Maryland version of the Spectacular Bid stakes and has some early for that Trevor McCarthy will likely use going into the first turn. Shackqueenking has had steady progression with his performance figures and a small improvement along with a ground saving trip could land him a piece of the pie. Royal Number jumped up to a new level last out in a optional claiming, two-turn 11/16 win while on lasix last out also at Laurel. His best two figures were in two turn races and his pedigree suggests that this stretch out should be within his range. Civil War would seem better suited to races at a venue closer to where the Gettysburg address was given, namely Penn National.
Sam Davis stakes
A full field of 12 will face the starter a few minutes past 5 eastern time at Tampa Bay Downs. There might be a little moisture in the track as showers have been forecast for the Oldsmar area but shouldn’t have much effect on today’s race. Hidden Stash steps up to stakes completion for Vicky Oliver with two 1 1/16 wins under his belt and the inside draw. He has shown excellent progression, has plenty of time since his last two improved efforts, has shown an ability to handle some water in the track and is a great price of 10-1 on the morning line, though I’m thinking that may be a little shorter in the actual betting. Known Agenda a soldier in the Pletcher army, ships over from headquarters at Palm Beach Downs with the rare Derby prep angle of a horse cutting back in distance. He will likely also be shorter than the 6-1 morning line especially with the success of Greatest Honour whom he defeated when breaking his maiden two starts back. He was the beaten favorite in the Remsen in the slop at the beginning of December and has a few sharp 5f works in the interim. Pletcher also has Millean who ran a good fig when breaking his maiden in 50000 claiming company last out but looks like more of just being a pace factor in here. Smiley Subotka was second in the grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill, losing narrowly tatter leading the stretch. His figure from that race was solid but not great and it’s interesting that Dale Romans chose to use a local rider, Daniel Centeno as opposed to one of his regulars. Runway Magic is ridden by Leparoux who piloted Smiley Subotka in his last at Churchill which is a bit surprising. This colt by the ubiquitous sire Runhappy, has never raced longer than 7f and despite keeping good company in those races, would seem to be a stretch (pardon the pun) in here for one of the best guys in racing, Rusty Arnold. Bill Mott has a pair of contenders with Nova Rags and Candy Man Rocket. Nova Rags won the Pasco at 7f at Tampa in his last race, after showing little in his first stakes appearance back at Aqueduct in the Nashua. Though his best races have come in sprints, you’d have to believe with his pedigree the two turns of this 1 1/16 would be within his scope but is he ready for another forward move? You would need a longer price than he is likely to be IMO. Candy Man Rocket is a recent GP maiden breaker at 6f and it’s a difficult transition off of that kind of race to ship and go two turns against even tepid stakes company. Ricochet, Joe Man Joe, Boca Boy, Lucky Law and Last Investment are all outsiders that need to improve quite a bit to even hit the board in here.
Video of the day
The Sam Davis might be a better Belmont Stakes prep