Going in Circles Digest Weekend Preview
Real writing on Racing 💯 (Fountain of Youth/Southwest day)
The Preps start to get real today
The field for the Fountain of Youth (Grade 2) is scheduled to cross the wire somewhere around 6:15 eastern this afternoon and at that time we will have a better idea if Greatest Honour deserves his spot at the top of the Florida Kentucky Derby rankings.
Roughly 15 minutes earlier, around 6:00 eastern, the field for the twice delayed Southwest (Grade 3) should have completed their journey once around, perhaps a muddy Oaklawn Park surface and the status of two year old kingpins, Essential Quality and Jackie’s Warrior should be far more clear.
The $300000 Fasig Tipton Fountain of Youth (Gr2)
A 50 point Kentucky Derby prep
Drain the Clock - Son of Maclean’s Magic stretches out in distance today after dominating a soft field in the Swale last out. Joesph and company dip their toe into the Derby Trail water here and drawing the rail means jockey Edgar Zayas has little choice but to send to the lead and try to wire the field. There are some potential pace contenders in this group as Prime Factor may try more of a free running style like when he broke his maiden at 6f, as he didn’t appear all that comfortable in being hard held as he was in the Holy Bull. Tarantino showed improved speed in his dirt debut also in the Holy Bull, as he was pressing a fast pace, dueling with a long shot sprinter in the early stages before putting that one away and battling on gamely to be the runner up to Greatest Honour. Drain the Clock should be faster early coming out of sprints and I expect him to have at least a length on the field going to the 1/2 mile pole. The short stretch setup for the 1 1/16 races at Gulfstream also plays into his hands as the main contender is a one run closer who would likely prefer a little more ground to work with. I would tend to lean against him in this spot especially as the likely solid second choice in here.
Prime Factor failed to rate and rally in his two turn debut as the 6/5 favorite in the Holy Bull for Pletcher and Irad Ortiz. I expect him to be a little closer to the pace today trying to keep Drain the Clock honest on the lead and get the jump on the closing kick of Greatest Honour. A lot of people are down on him after that last race but I believe that he will benefit from the experience and improve off of that effort.
Sososubtle figures to be a long price coming off a nice maiden score against state bred company in his last for trainer De La Cerda and the Palmers. The third place finisher in that maiden, Joshy Jak came out of that race to break his maiden Thursday against state bred company though that is a far cry from the company that Sososubtle faces today. He would have to move up quite a bit in his first try around two turns and loses his jockey to another rival and also loses lasix which makes this a very tough assignment.
Fire at Will comes out of a strong score in a Breeders Cup race for two year olds…on turf. He is really the wildcard in this spot as he clearly has quality, did break his maiden on the dirt albeit a sloppy track at Saratoga in the off the grass With Anticipation, has good speed figures on grass and strong human connections. Yet he seems like a little bit of a shot in the dark here and despite Maker having been working him exclusively on dirt and commenting that he handles it fine, a race against this caliber of horse might be a little more than he is capable of on the dirt at this point. I commend the try as there is really nothing to lose here and if he does run well enough to get himself firmly entrenched on the Derby Trail bus, they will look really smart. If he doesn’t perform a as well on the dirt there is always the Jeff Ruby at Turfway and the summer grass stakes to shoot for.
Jirafales seems overmatched though it’s good to see Javier Castellano back in the saddle again.
Kings Ovation ran ok when clunking up the inside for second in the Swale. Like a lot of Romans horses his form is erratic though he does seem to have a some ability, the short stretch doesn’t help his chance of getting a check.
Tarantino who is surely TVG host Ken Rudolph’s selection here, proved that he could handle the dirt in the Holy Bull when he was a game runner up to Greatest Honour. Today’s task seems more difficult as Drain the Clock is a different kind of pace factor and new rider Tyler Gafflione may find himself 3 or 4 wide down the backside. I’m thinking the bubble bursts today as the trip seems like it may be more difficult and his speed figure improved a lot from his grass races and he may regress a touch.
Greatest Honour is the boss of the Florida Derby hopefuls after his dominant Holy Bull performance where he swept by the field on the turn to win by a widening 5 3/4 lengths. His speed figure trajectory places him a few notches above the rest in here and he should be looking at a similar pace scenario to the Holy Bull. The biggest question is can he maintain that form as he has improved a little bit each start till the last where he took a pretty big jump. He does pick up 5 pounds today and the post doesn’t help but Shug’s comments this week seems to indicate he was doing well and they passed on waiting to the Florida Derby as he continues to build a foundation for May 1st. Short price looms.
Tiz Tact Toe when I saw this entry I thought perhaps Bob Hess had entered into the wrong race by mistake. The only one that was probably more surprised to see him land here was his previous trainer Barclay Tagg whom he was claimed off from a maiden 50 grass race. Adds blinkers and loses his manly parts as a first time gelding in perhaps the most odd placement in a graded stakes since the late Jaime Mejia was around.
Papetu draws a terrible post for 1 1/16 race at GP and really didn’t have much kick in the Holy Bull anyway. He is probably more talented than he appears on paper but will need a lot of good fortune today to hit the board.
The $750000 Southwest (Gr3)
A 10 point Kentucky Derby prep which is way too few
Essential Quality upset today’s main contender, Jackie’s Warrior in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and in doing so captured the champion two year old colt award. He is fast, has two turn experience, has been training uninterrupted at Fair Grounds and has Brad Cox and Luis Saez on his team. The track surface might be wet today which is something that he hasn’t encountered as of yet in his three race career but he is certainly bred to handle an off track. Essential Quality has one real issue today and that is the lack of early pace pressure on Jackie’s Warrior and Saez may be forced to engage a little earlier than he would like to. He has 30 points toward the Derby already and because of that this isn’t a must win race for him.
Saffa’s Day a maiden breaker last out at Oaklawn, he will need a lot of improvement to get close to the two big horses in here though he is a definite contender for 3rd if the those top two both show up.
Last Samurai seems wildly overmatched in his seasons debut.
Jackie’s Warrior was upset when pace compromised in the BC juvenile as a heavy favorite. Has worked very well for his 3 year old debut and should have an uncontested lead as there are no others in here with anything close to the early speed he possesses. Look for a cat and mouse game to be played between his jockey Joel Rosario and Luis Saez and hopefully they hook up in the stretch run and give us a great race.
Santa Crusier was well beaten with wide trips in the two FG preps and his performance here may give us a gauge as to where those Louisiana Derby trail contenders match up to the divisions biggest names.
Woodhouse seems to be a nice colt with a decent closing kick. Encountered traffic in his last which was a good third place finish in an allowance over a muddy OP surface that he may get again today.
Spielberg is a Baffert shipper to Oaklawn for a Derby prep race which has been a deadly angle for many years. However this colt simply isn’t as good as the usual horses that Baffert sends to Arkansas as his speed figures haven’t show any improvement since early November and aren’t really very fast anyway.