Going in Circles Digest “The Ides of March Madness and the state of the game”
Real Writing on Racing 💯
Is the sun rising or setting on racing?
A perplexing state of bewilderment (part 1)
If a person with little to no knowledge of the horse racing game were to investigate what the future of the sport holds, what is the most likely outlook? Being objective about a subject in which you have in-depth knowledge and naturally formed strong opinions on is a difficult task. Those of us who are considered “insiders” or dare I say, experts, seem to have wildly different outlooks on the future of the horse racing industry in North America. A host of factors including geography, role played, age and level of experience create a wide variety of prisms in which the racing game and its cousins in the breeding and sales sector are viewed. It’s tough to find individuals, let alone groups, that can take a global or macro view of the many different facets of the sport and understand the whys and how’s that make up the confounding paradox that horse racing and it’s tentacles have become. Simply finding a consensus on a glass half full or half empty outlook is a challenge.
Nobody is in charge
One of the weaknesses that is most often repeated when discussing the state of the game is that there is no central authority for virtually anything in the American racing world. A state by state approach has been a constant since the various government entities found that regulating racing means the ability to extract revenue from it. Racing has long been a regional sport for the most part but with the explosion of full card simulcasting about 25 years ago, the customer and participants suddenly had access to new circuits with new names, different wagering menus and varying rules of racing. What was considered a riding infraction worthy of disqualification on one circuit wasn’t considered the same on another. Late scratches, changes in horizontal bet races and betting minimums were different based upon the track in question. One track would give you the post time favorite in the case of a late scratch, others would give you “all”. Confusion reigned and in many ways still does.
Behind the scenes on the backstretch, the various states medication policies were in some cases bizarrely different. Trainers and veterinarians were often not sure that they were or weren’t in compliance with the confusing and changing rules dependent on the physical location of the track they were racing at.
Strides have been made in both areas but now we have the added component of some jurisdictions aggressively pursing differing whip regulations, which has the dreaded side effect of the actual on the track competition being affected. Watching races from California, where the rules are far more restrictive than most everywhere else, has a decidedly different look than we are used to seeing has caused consternation among both the betting public and jockeys alike.
“Drayden Van Dyke will be at Keeneland and Churchill for the foreseeable future…finally he can do what he does. Give his all to win 😎just saying…”
-Gary Stevens (@GStevens_jockey) on the talented young jockey that is leaving California after a series of issues with the stewards over the new whip regulations.
“At this point I feel that the races in California are determined by pure luck almost. I have seen MANY horses that would have won if not for the jockeys riding differently because of the new rules. California used to be a mainstay on my wagering activity but now I limit my handle there to big days only. Even that is becoming difficult as it feels like the jockeys are riding in fear of stewards rulings rather than to just try to win.”
-Barry Spears (@urbnhandicapper) co-host of the Going in Circles Big Monday show
New Jersey has passed the nations most restrictive rules in regards to the use of the riding crop/whip as riders aren’t technically allowed any strikes unless they are for safety purposes. Several other states in the Mid-Atlantic region have adopted a more flexible riding crop policy allowing low limits more similar to the California regulations. Clearly it will take more a lot more data to be collected to determine the new rules effect on handle. In this area of the country there is a lot more jockey movement between tracks than in California and it will be interesting to see how those jocks handle riding under two or three different sets of rules depending on what day it is and where they are riding at.
How about HISA?
This widely touted legislation was passed last fall by Congress and signed into law by President Trump on December 27th. The Horseracing Safety and Integrity Act is designed to “establish national standards to promote fairness and increase safety in thoroughbred racing nationwide”. It sounds great however this piece of federal legislation doesn’t contain a great deal of specifics including how this all will be funded. The bill calls for setting up an independent racing authority, creating anti-doping and medication control programs along with a racetrack safety program under the guise of the Federal Trade Commission who to my knowledge has zero horse racing experts currently on staff.
In theory this law could work to help put together the puzzle of the varying rules and regulations spoken about earlier in this piece. That of course would be a net positive in getting the sport on the same page in many areas especially in terms of universal medication policies. I don’t know of anyone that doesn’t want this thing to work but honestly it’s a great leap of faith to believe that it might not instead prove disastrous for the industry. The funding mechanisms seem to be ripe for issues from the start as it puts a lot of discretion in the hands of the state regulators that this law hypothetically was supposed to replace. The fear that many have is that the two groups that are the source of most of the revenues of racing, owners and bettors will be slapped with additional racing fees, surcharges and perhaps even takeout raises. This of course will be a crushing blow for those two vital but often under appreciated segments of the sport.
The question that begs to be answered is if the legislation has a high likelihood of causing financial pain for the industry, what bar must it clear in terms of success in order to counter that cost and not become a huge drag on the already stagnant revenue flow of racing? A simplistic question with a complicated answer that doesn’t seem to be forthcoming anytime soon. Will this law ultimately lead to a better wagering product that consumers can have more confidence in? Will tangible results be seen across the board? Nothing that has been released so far including an underwhelming interview done by Travis Taggart of the USADA done with TDN’s writers room has given any confidence that those questions will be answered in the affirmative. In that interview when asked about techniques for ferreting out cheaters, Taggert seemed to believe that a tip line seemingly set up like the old TRPB tip line is going to be a game changer which seemed a tad bit naive. Perhaps he doesn’t want to give out too much information but I can pretty much guarantee that any tip line will light up after the next form reversal or “horse of a lifetime” performance. I can also guarantee that virtually none of the callers will have any actual or creditable information other than innuendo or unproven theories.
The NHBPA lawsuit against HISA
I’m not a lawyer and I didn’t stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night so commenting on legal matters isn’t on the docket (see what I did there?). Where I will comment is on the commenters that whined and cried like children. They want to cast stones at the horsemen, who will not only be forced to live under this potentially, deeply flawed law but fund it as well, dare ask the courts to examine some of the questions that they have concerning the constitutionality of HISA. The truth is that it’s far better to have this law either found to be flawed and have those flaws be remedied or be upheld as completely legal in its current form, prior to it going into effect where you might have a whole host of bad actors that are caught, wind up escaping penalty because of their lawyers capitalizing on some technical issue that some judge might use to toss their cases. As for this nonsensical theory that somehow the sport of racing is being shamed because a lawsuit was filed…yeah welcome to the modern world where this is a regular occurrence that the general public has grown relatively numb to. In plainer terms, only legal nerds and the Jockey Club cheerleaders will fret about this.
(Part 2 next week)
Video of the week (Florida Derby’s to remember)
The runner up in Holy Bull’s Florida Derby romp in 1994 was a horse named Ride the Rails. His US racing career is mostly forgotten now, he won a single listed stake, the 50k Foolish Pleasure at Calder as a 2yo for Jim Bracken. However he has had a big impact that is still being felt in racing today as the sire of the top stallion, Candy Ride.
Louisiana Derby (Gr. 2) $1000000 & 100 KY Derby Points
Starrininmydreams - Flopped in Risen Star at 10-1 after having issues getting away from the starting gate for the 2nd consecutive start. Attracts Luis Saez which is a plus but the inside draw probably doesn’t help and he has 27 lengths to make up from his last outing.
Rightandjust - Also exits the Risen Star like the majority of the LA Derby’s runners. Will likely be the pacesetter once again under new rider Colby Hernandez though it’s tough to see him wiring this field.
Run Classic - This Runhappy colt exits a maiden win going 1 1/16 and is going directly to the stakes level for excellent trainer Bret Calhoun. He was purchased a year ago at the OBS March sale for $475k and might be good enough to get a piece of this at a long price. The piece might be 3rd or 4th but I’m pretty suspect of the Louisiana group of three year old colts this season and don’t think the step up is as big as it would be in stronger years.
Proxy - The Godolphin homebred by Tapit has never run a bad race in his 5 lifetime starts. He has been the runner up in both Fair Grounds Derby preps this year, has tactical speed if needed, has Johnny Velazquez, and is drawn outside the main speed. He has had some issues leaving the gate and has appeared distracted in the stretch before which is the downside of Tapit. The main issue with him is that he appears to be a grinder, he doesn’t have high speed or strong closing ability, he keeps up and doesn’t stop and needs the race to really play out in his favor which I’m leaning against happening.
Hot Rod Charlie - The key to the race as the West Coast three year olds appear to be a cut above this year and he will provide a litmus test for the LeComte/Risen Star runners as the new face from the left coast. Regular trainer Doug O’Neill is currently serving a brief suspension so the Breeders Cup Juvenile runner up is listed under Sergio Mora, O’Neill’s long time assistant. He was a close third to San Felipe second place finisher, Medina’s Spirit in the RB Lewis in his only start as a three year old. Joel Rosario is in town for the mount and should be able to workout a good trip behind the pacesetters plus the added ground at the 1 3/16th distance won’t hurt either.
Mandaloun - adding blinkers for the Risen Star worked as he ran his best race to date winning that race by a deceptively easy 1 1/4 lengths. He drew well, has the right style and looms as a solid odds-on favorite. The big question is how good are other horses he has been facing and is he just the best of a middling lot?
Midnight Bourbon - the LeComte winner, he is a consistent sort who has yet to miss the board in 6 lifetime starts. I wouldn’t debate too hard against someone that liked him in this spot but I’m also not really high on him either.
O Besos - at least he isn’t Bezos 🤷🏼♂️