Fun with Friday Stakes

Real Writing on Racing 💯

Apr 14, 2023

Well I couldn’t conjure up much to write about for the Wednesday and Thursday Keeneland cards so we skipped ahead to Friday and a visit from the dynamic duo of Chuck Appleby and Bill Buick. The boys from the UK are back to plunder our turf graded stakes horses once again, arriving earlier than usual this season. Nevertheless we have a pair of Friday stakes to go over but we will begin with a news item (literally) and look back at Saturday’s big races.

🙋🏼‍♂️ We bid farewell to another of the top turf writers of the last few decades with the announcement that the DRF’s Marty McGee is hanging up his notebook and switching over to the popular jockey agent role for Midwestern rider Joe Talamo. Marty has been a friend for a long time and was one of last of the ink-stained wretch era turf writers left. Racing media is increasingly and troublingly more coiffed PR than news these days and losing veterans that understood the importance of reporting the truth or as close to it as allowed is a sobering reality.

🏆 Last Saturday’s three ‘100 point to the winner’ Kentucky Derby prep races all wound up being exciting events with stirring stretch duels, yet I’m not sure the proverbial needle moved much when trying to determine who will wear the roses 22 days from now. Starting with the Santa Anita Derby, Practical Move showed grit in holding off the late challenge of Japanese NAR invader, Mandarin Hero and Skinner outside him. Tim Yakteen has done a nice job getting him eligible for the Derby but I can’t help but wonder if he could have used another race to have him at his absolute peak. The distance question with him is absolutely valid as in his 1st try beyond 1 1/16 he got a perfect, ground saving trip and barely held on. In fact if Kimura on Mandarin Hero didn’t have Skinner and Victor Espinoza squeezing him several times, he may have won the race. Skinner ran his typical Skinner race, giving up lengths at the start and ground on the turns. He and Mandarin Hero will need an assist to get in the big dance but both are very dangerous if they do. National Treasure encountered a spot of trouble but he still seems more like a ‘good figs while chasing but not too much passing’ type than a top horse at this point.

The Wood has been much maligned as a major Derby prep for years and with good reason as the last Derby winner to originate from the Memorial was Funny Cide was who was second in 2003. Last year’s version did produce 2 Classic winners in Preakness champ Early Voting and Belmont victor Mo Donegal, though both were finished before the summer was over. The 2023 edition looks like it will join the forgettable category as winner Lord Miles had never even come close in a stakes event and those who he vanquished in a long, laborious stretch run were the single stake winning Hit Show and maiden Dreamlike. Hit Show did get caught wide both turns and winner did improve a lot but the spirit that emanates from this group smells like teen mediocrity.

Tapit Trice had been highly touted as the top late developer on this years Derby trail but another slow start and what seemed to be an unheralded group as the competition in the Tampa Bay Derby brought more questions than praise. Todd Pletcher agreed that his charge needed more seasoning and selected the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland as the venue to make that happen. Meeting another relatively soft bunch for a major Derby prep, he drew the rail post position which added intrigue to the proceedings. The son of Tapit (who has never sired a Kentucky Derby winner which I’m sure will be repeated at least one million times before Derby day) broke from the gate better than he had in previous starts, admittedly a low bar to clear. Luis Saez hustled him into the first turn as to not be too far back, found a comfortable position on the outside of horses mid-pack down the backside and made a strong move three wide on the final turn to take aim at the leader, Verifying. Tapit Trice wore that rival down in deep stretch under energetic handling from Saez and capped off a sharp effort that likely gave his trainer and rider a lot more confidence heading into the first Saturday in May. Verifying with new rider Tyler Gafflione after an eventful trip in the Rebel under Florent Geroux, stalked unexpected pace setter Clear the Air, took over turning for home but couldn’t hold Tapit Trice off during the last 50 yards in an improved runner up effort. It’s hard to muster up Derby enthusiasm for any of the others including decent but non-threatening third place finisher, Blazing Sevens.

The final round of preps didn’t really solidify any strong opinions for me, if anything several horses whom I would be interested in taking a stab with didn’t even make it in the field, though it’s still a fluid situation with defections expected. Two that ran well this weekend that seemingly will handle the 10 furlongs, Hit Show and Tapit Trice don’t have much turn of foot and may struggle to find good early positions. I am very skeptical that a horse that does have tactical speed, Practical Move, can get the mile and a quarter. Lord Miles is an ❌ and I’m not sure I believe that Verifying is really suited to win the Derby though he does have the pedigree and his tactical speed is an asset. We will have a more in-depth look at the contenders in an upcoming Digest.

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💰The Going in Circles Digest Keeneland play of the day from ‘the Sniper’ Barry Spears ⤵️

💸 We are unabashed fans of Keeneland’s all-turf pick 3 but this one is a doozy, even with the entire world likely singling Modern Games (Ire) in the last leg. The opener which is race 5, an allowance race for 3yo fillies going 9 furlongs has a host of contenders even fading the morning line favorite Malleymoo. Mrs Astor, Safeen, Wonderfull Lady (Fr) and Knockyoursocksoff are all very live in this spot. Our ticket might look something like this 1-3-6-8/2-6-7-11/7 which is $48 and excludes the morning line choices in the first 2 legs.

🌟 We aren’t huge fans of handicapping turf sprints but wow the $250,000 FanDuel Limestone is some race! You can make a legit case for most of the field including horses listed 20-1 and 30-1 on the morning line. Expect a supersonic early pace with Sassy Nature, Accomplished Girl and Stone Silent all flashing high speed. Twirled, American Apple and My Sweet Affair shouldn’t be too far back and a host of closers like Just A Care (Ire), Alluring Angel(GB), Lady Hollywood(GB) and Danse Macabre will be flying home. We didn’t even mention ML fav Love Reigns but at a short price and an ice cold Joel Rosario, we will likely fade her. We will be using Alluring Angel for sure but will definitely spread deep in making horizontal wagers. Good luck 🍀

Makers Mark Mile (Gr I) $600,000 4&up 1 mile turf

Speaking Scout - 4 yo cuts back to a mile and draws the rail in a pretty pace less version of the Makers Mark. He is slower than most in here but has improved, picks up Saez and if you are looking for a horse that may be primed to run a career top at a long price, this one may hold some intrigue but hard to see him winning
Up to the Mark - has run two monstrous efforts since switched to the grass after his career stalled out on the dirt. Both came over the chopped up GP course and featured decent to strong pace set ups which is doubtful here. Figures to be flying at the end, the question is does the lack of pace give him too much to do?
Chez Pierre (Fr) - Old Pierre doesn’t show up to race often but it’s usually a good effort. Got caught wide in Emmanuel’s big win at Tampa back on Feb 4th but had run huge fig when taking down Henry Clark at Laurel a year ago. Offers a decent price and picks up Prat and may wind up on the lead dictating a slow pace but I question if he is really this caliber
Emmanuel - in a group lacking early speed, he does have some though it’s been awhile since he displayed much of it. His Tampa Bay Stakes (Gr III) was a huge effort off the bench and he did regress a touch when taking down the Ft Lauderdale (Gr III) but that wasn’t completely unexpected. He had better have his running shoes on here though as out kicking Steady On and Ft Washington isn’t quite the same as matching strides with Modern Games (Ire).
Dr Zempf (GB) - looked great in US debut last month dominating allowance types at GP when adding lasix, but this is a big step up in class. Was mainly a sprinter in Europe, competitive at the group 2/3 level but nothing in the same stratosphere as Modern Games (Ire). He is coming into this in sharp form but questions remain about his ability to handle the Pletcher pair let alone the favorite.
In Love (Brz) - it’s been quite some time since the now 7 year old gelding has shown the type of form needed to compete in here.
Modern Games (Ire) - needs no introduction as he has been a major part of the Appleby wrecking crew that has dominated domestic grass events in recent years. It’s rare that we see horses like this ship to the US to make their season debuts so if there is any weakness maybe that could be it. The pace scenario isn’t ideal for his style but he has perhaps the best jock in the world, opposition that hasn’t proven itself at this level and a devastating turn of foot.
Cabo Spirit - has developed into a nice west coast graded stakes performer but needs a huge effort here to even get close to the board.

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