First look…won’t be the last look
Real Writing on Racing 💯
We found that doing a daily blog about a track that we aren’t physically at was not really going that well…so we figured that we’d focus on everybody’s favorite topic, the Kentucky Derby! Yes we are also well aware that you are likely being bombarded in other forums about the little horse race held on the first Saturday in May, but no one ever seems to get enough of the Derby.
Oh I have thoughts about the race and the 20+ horses currently under consideration, but strong positive opinions are not among them. There are plenty that I DO NOT like, a bunch that I’d lean against and close to half the field that might be able to win, just none that I can say “Yeah that’s the one”.
We are going to do a horse by horse rundown of each of the current contenders (from 23 to 1 on points earned) with a blunt assessment of each. We also have included a handy chart with our letter grades plus friend of the Digest, Craig Milkowski from TimeformUS has been kind enough to let us use his handy pace chart of all the Kentucky Derby preps with the TimeformUS Ratings for the first three on the board as well pace figures for each race (found under the contenders list).
Click here for a brief explanation of the TFUS figures.
The Going in Circles Digest Kentucky Derby contenders list
King Russell - We didn’t even know that he was on the Derby trail prior to the Arkansas Derby field crossing the wire and his connections hadn’t nominated him to the Triple Crown so it appears they hadn’t either. Obviously has improved at the right time but it’s a very long shot for him to get into the field to be a longshot.
Mandarin Hero - I have been an unabashed fan of international participation in our big races as it is healthy for the sport and introduces a lot of new eyes on our domestic game. This guy ran a bang up race to be second in the Santa Anita Derby in his US debut and with a tad bit better fortune might have won and been one of my top choices. That said we have had very few Japanese horses come to compete on the Derby trail period, let alone stay for more than one race so we are in uncharted waters with him in either the Derby or Preakness if he winds up there.
Major Dude - If I was Mr. Pletcher I’d want him in for selfish reasons such as he’d keep a potential live contender out thus assisting his three other much more likely winners. If he does drawn in I will be drawing a line through his name as he has not shown to be a top, top class runner on the dirt. If he winds up winning a race on the first Saturday in May, it’s far, far more likely to be the American Turf (Gr II) on the undercard.
Cyclone Mischief - he isn’t this years poster child for ‘decent horse most likely to be never heard of again after a awful showing in the Kentucky Derby’ but he was a contender (the winner of that title is up soon). His coming out party was an allowance race at GP going a one turn mile where he got a perfect trip behind fast fractions. Too bad there isn’t a race like that on the Derby undercard…(hint - Pat Day Mile)…but seriously he has lost ground in the stretch in his two stakes tries at GP and wouldn’t be close to even being in the field had Mage not got jostled in the stretch run of the FoY.
Skinner - he has lurked around the edges of the Derby trail as a ‘wise guy’ futures horses (full disclosure I have a ticket on him at 38-1) though his inability to run straight or overcome his seemingly inevitable wide trip is concerning. Some of that smoke started when Ragozin gave him a ludicrously high fig when breaking his maiden but he did run fast that day (not as fast as they had him which was faster than older horses did winning Breeders Cup races last fall). His main obstacle is his lack of early foot which puts him near the rear of the bulky field. He has given off Giacomo vibes (same trainer, similar path) but that was more of a flukey result than anything that day. I’m clearly rooting for him to get in and to win but worry that his bandwagon is getting full and not sure that he really deserves it.
Jace’s Road - with the defection of Blazing Sevens (smart move btw) he is now in the field which means that he is the official ‘decent horse most likely to be never heard of again after a awful showing in the Kentucky Derby’ otherwise known as the Midnight Interlude Award. That colt went into the 2011 Kentucky Derby with a solid record in four starts including winning the Santa Anita Derby but bombed in Louisville, then again in the Preakness, became an mediocre grass horse, never winning a graded states again. Jace’s Road simply doesn’t look like he will get the 10 furlong trip as he has competed in five stakes and lost ground in the stretch of each of them except one, the Gun Runner at FG. That took place at a meet where his trainer won at a 37% rate and he was allowed to set an uncontested pace against a soft group, something that is unlikely to happen on May 6.
Continuar - the Japanese road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier is a bit of a wildcard as he was a couple lengths behind his highly touted Japanese counterpart Derma Sotogake in the Middle East but was regarded as being in his league in Japan prior to that by several reports that I have seen. Travel is an issue as the trip from Tokyo to Saudi Arabia to Dubai to Chicago to Louisville is a lot for young horses and is hard to quantify. The UAE Derby hasn’t been a source of Derby success since it’s inception though a soft group of domestic horses and a power house performance from Derma Sotogake have raised expectations this year. Now this son of Defrong (American based runner who found most success sprinting despite being by Gio Ponti, who was best as a grass marathon horse) was left in the wake of his Japanese compatriot at Meydan but his stalking running style may be more conducive for the Derby if a fast pace ensues.
Reincarnate - I actually have a future bet on this colt too though I made it so long ago that I forgot what odds I have. He was impressive in the Sham at Santa Anita before the Baffert purge to Yakteenville. Got a tough trip after a slow beginning in the Rebel though he showed grit by closing ground over a sloppy track that he seemed perplexed by early in the race. His 3rd in the Arkansas Derby last out was easy to dismiss at first glance though he does have some positive attributes, namely good early speed and he has run good figs. Is flying completely under the radar here and if he draws outside I’d give him some consideration as this years Medina Spirit.
Disarm - his three year old campaign has a rushed sort of feel that rarely is parlayed into Kentucky Derby success. His three races since coming off the bench after an ultra impressive Saratoga maiden breaker, have all been okay but left you walking away thinking that wasn’t his best shot. His pedigree certainly seems to be stout enough and of all the horses in the field, he has really not had a signature effort…the issue is perhaps he has reached his current ceiling and just isn’t good enough? The opposing view is that he needed start number one, start number two he was the only member of the field closing into a dawdling pace and the wheel back into the Lexington was a necessity, not an ideal spot. Of course he is wheeling back again and a little piece of me hopes that he runs huge so that the big trainers who space their Derby horses to the point where even NASA is concerned, take note. Alas his Derby destiny seems to be a fair effort when running 9th.
Mage - one of the more interesting horses in this field. The son of Good Magic is less experienced than what we’d normally prefer but this is a field of horses that are full of holes in their resumes. His primary issue outside of not having the traditional foundation found in successful Derby runners is his tardiness leaving the gate. His debut was sharp, he broke fine and sped through a wire to wire win on the Pegasus World Cup undercard with a solid TG fig. His follow up was a tough trip 4th when stretching out in the Fountain of Youth, though he did show determination, signaling he was a colt moving forward. His Florida Derby was another race marred by a slow start yet he showed serious ability sweeping past 2yo champ Forte on the far turn before getting run down late by the same runner. He keeps getting better, his fitness level should be improved after two wide trips in his two stakes appearances, there is tactical speed to be used if he leaves the gate better and he very well may have another move forward coming.
Sun Thunder - he’s a tough one to peg. I mean the biggest question might be…is he good? Was the Risen Star (Gr II) a fluke? His subsequent efforts in the Louisiana Derby and Bluegrass were uninspiring, he is a one run closer that ran evenly while finding traffic which obviously is an issue in a 20 horse field. Not crazy about his pedigree at 10f either and finding it difficult to warm up to him.
Verifying - problem number one is our reservation about his ability to negotiate the 1 1/4 distance. Comes into the race off of a perfect trip runner up finish in the Bluegrass where he had no real excuses except just not good enough to hold off Tapit Trice. He isn’t without a chance but his best style seems to be up close stalking the pace so his starting gate post assignment will be key.
Confidence Game - I have no confidence that this one start prep season will be sufficient preparation for the Candy Ride colt to negotiate the grueling 10 furlong Classic. It isn’t lost on us that his only effort that is remotely good enough to be competitive in the Derby came over a sloppy track. Big fans of Keith Desormeaux but can not get onboard this plan.
Hit Show - drew outside in the Wood and it cost him as he was wide throughout and couldn’t hold off the late charge of lightly regarded contender Miles Ahead. Not a fan of the two start campaign either, especially when the first start wasn’t particularly taxing. His chief issue is a lack of tactical speed, he will need to be lucky during the first half mile of the race that things fall exactly in place so that he isn’t caught in a situation where he has to do too much as he has a grinding late move and getting stopped or even steadied will spell doom.
Rocket Can - I just don’t see him as being good enough. His tough trip win in the Holy Bull (he was 4 wide both turns) was one of the slowest south Florida Derby preps in recent memory and his subsequent efforts were ordinary.
Raise Cain - he ran great in the Gotham over a sloppy track with a great setup for his one run closing style. However has no other races on his resume that would lead you to believe that he is a serious candidate without some sort of downpour occurring and getting a supersonic pace meltdown.
Kingsbarns - in the 2015 Todd Pletcher came into the Kentucky Derby with a lightly raced yet undefeated colt named Materiality. That son of Afleet Alex had been an expensive yearling purchase ($260k) who was successfully pinhooked into being an even more expensive two year old in training purchase (400k). Kingsbarns was also an expensive yearling purchase (250k) who was successfully pinhooked into being an even more expensive two year old in training purchase (800k). Materiality debuted in a one turn race in January at Gulfstream Park, Kingsbarns debuted in a one turn race in January at Gulfstream Park. Materiality easily won a two turn race in his second start as did Kingsbarns as well. Materiality made his graded stakes debut in his third start, a wire to wire win in the Florida Derby, setting slow fractions when doing so. Kingsbarns made his graded stakes debut in his third start, a wire to wire win in the Louisiana Derby, setting slow fractions when doing so. Will the eerie similarities between the two continue? If you are a Kingsbarns backer you’d hope not as Materiality hesitated at the start, was away last and weaved his way through the field after that disastrous beginning to finish 6th beaten a little less than 8 lengths behind American Pharoah. He ran back in the Belmont stakes, was sent off third choice, chased American Pharoah for a mile, stopped around the final turn and faded to be last. That was Materiality’s final start and sadly he was put down as a result of complications from laminitis the following year. Does this mean that Kingsbarns is a toss? Of course not…there is no American Pharoah lining up against him and every race is it’s own unique happening. However the lesson is to beware of horses that have had nothing but easy trips, that have never faced any real adversity and have beaten up on mostly second rate company, especially at underlaid odds.
Derma Sotogake - his UAE Derby was probably the most impressive ‘tour-de-force’ of the Kentucky Derby trail this season (Arabian Knight in the Southwest a close second). That dominating wire to wire win coupled with increasing realization that Japanese trained horses are problem on the international stage, has stirred up a lot more buzz than the typical Dubai winner would. Is it warranted? On a sheer talent scale it’s tough to deny that Derma Sotogake is among the tops in this spotty group assembled for the 149th edition of the Kentucky Derby. The thing is that the race isn’t won on sheer talent, a host of other factors, some tangible like post positions, fractions and trips…others like travel hangovers aren’t. You’ll hear all sorts of stuff like the UAE Derby hasn’t been productive as a prep (it hasn’t) but that really has no bearing on this years race. My question is how much does all the travel affect a young horse going into the most chaotic, stressful situation that they will ever face? As pointed out with Continuar, these two have been on the road since early February having shipped from Tokyo to Saudi Arabia, then to Dubai then to Chicago then finally shipping to Louisville last week. We used to hear a lot about how shipping to Dubai for the World Cup would knock American horses off schedule for months afterward and this scenario would seem to be quite a bit more taxing. Top 3 year old Taiba shipped to compete in the Saudi Cup on 2-25 and has only had two easy works since returning with no imminent races scheduled. IMO a Japanese based horse can surely win the Kentucky Derby, they just might be better off prepping to do it via domestic preps in the future.
Lord Miles - should have a similar effect on the race that 2021 Wood Memorial winner Bourbonic did…none.
Two Phil’s - gotta give trainer Larry Rivelli credit, he has pushed a lot of the right buttons with this colt. Had him ready to run last summer, broke his maiden at Colonial then found a nice easy spot for his stakes debut at Canterbury in the Shakopee Juvenile at 6f before sending him to the wolves for his two turn debut in the Breeders Futurity (Gr I), his only weak race. He recovered nicely to win the Street Sense (Gr III) over the Churchill surface, albeit a sloppy one. His two FG forays were both tougher trips than they looked because of wide draws and the Jeff Ruby (Gr III) over a synthetic surface, was a gamble that paid off. The Hard Spun colt does have two races going 9 furlongs, has a solid foundation of 8 lifetime races and his TG pattern is great (lifetime from first race 15-11-7.75-7.75-7.75-4-4-2). He can absolutely win if he gets a fortunate trip.
Tapit Trice - often Derby trail contenders can elicit some widely different views. Some, like this expensive Tapit colt, manage to attract some wild comments about how great or not great he was based upon the same race. In the aftermath of his stakes debut in the Tampa Bay Derby, where he broke slowly as usual and swept by the entire field to win going away, praise and scorn were both shared on horse racing social media. The positive viewpoint was that he showed immense an ability to overcome a very difficult trip over that particular course where deep closers almost never prevail. The naysayers pointed out the slow beginning, the fact that jockey Luis Saez had to ride Tapit Trice hard the entire way versus the soft competition. Todd Pletcher seemed to fall in the middle and decided that more seasoning was needed and pencilled in the Bluegrass Stakes for his final Derby prep. He did break better in Lexington and Saez was able to get him a less stressful trip while not needing to make up so much ground, resulting in him wearing down Verifying, who was at least a notch above the Tampa Bay Derby competition. He has talent, the pedigree to get the distance, an elite jockey and has run fast enough but the odds are that he is in the back 25% of the field as they turn to head down the backside and with an iffy pace scenario…can he overcome that and being wide when making his run?
Angel of Empire - outside of one odd try on the grass at Kentucky Downs last fall, this Classic Empire colt has never run a bad race. Stamped himself a contender when rallying from far back under a perfect Luis Saez ride to win the Risen Star and backed that up with an even more impressive score in the Arkansas Derby. In the Oaklawn race, he circled the field on the turn, blowing past several of the Derby field participants to win drawing away under Flavian Prat. Seems to handle traffic ok, has run excellent figs his last two and honestly has the feel of a real contender.
Practical Move - he really hasn’t done much wrong, has tactical ability, and has run excellent speed figures. That said I’m not overly excited by his light campaign and questions about his ability to get 10 furlongs weren’t quelled in the Santa Anita Derby where a perfect, ground saving trip was required to barely enough to hold off Mandarin Hero and Skinner.
Forte - Todd Pletcher came into the 2023 season knowing his champion 2yo colt already had a lot of eligibility points towards the Kentucky Derby, a luxury no one else had. He chose a two race prep schedule which ordinarily we wouldn’t love but in this case, he had 5 races as a juvenile, with a pair of them being around two turns. In other words, a solid foundation. He made light work of the Fountain of Youth field but had to overcome two big obstacles in the Florida Derby, a terrible post draw and the rapidly improving Mage. Forte was able to make it back into the winners circle once again though not without making it interesting by having to run down Mage in deep stretch after that one had circled past him on the far turn. The adversity likely was a positive especially with only two races since November but a few nagging questions loom. Namely has he reached his peak already and is that good enough to overcome whatever issues that he will have to overcome to win? Respect the tremendous job Pletcher has done managing this colt’s career to the point where I think Forte might not be much better than many of the other contenders as the calendar flips over to May, despite his gaudy resume.
The Going in Circles Digest Kentucky Derby contender list graded
The official TimeformUS Derby Prep race pace ratings
Superb article
Very good read👍🏼