Final Derby Prep Grades
Real Writing on Racing 💯
Which Kentucky Derby prep races were the most impactful leading up to this years Derby draw later today? It’s not exactly ground breaking stuff here but with Derby information overload going full speed as we await the Oaks/Derby card past performances, we figured we’d take a quick look back at prep season. In honor of the recently completed NFL draft and the obligatory grades assigned to every pick and overall team scores, we decided that we would hand out grades too. We did this exercise a couple months back (Click here to see the earlier scorecard) and we will show that chart as well as the final grades plus TimeformUS figs for the winner and a color coded pace rating for unusually fast or slow paces for selected preps. Finally we will rank the top 10 preps from an unusual trail for the 149th Kentucky Derby.
This was from a special edition of the Going in Circles Digest on 2-28:
This is our final chart that has been enhanced with TimeformUS figs and hot/cold pace color designations for selected races
Some thoughts after analyzing and grading this years Kentucky Derby prep schedule in its entirety:
The Sunland Park Derby should be downgraded. Obviously the tragic injury that befell Wild on Ice after a workout last week prevents him from earning the Sunland Derby any street cred points but the race is over-pointed. How is it possible that Fountain of Youth, Rebel, Risen Star, San Felipe or Tampa Bay Derby is equal in Kentucky Derby eligibility points as the race in New Mexico. Basically it’s the Baffert 5th stringers versus the Doug O’Neil 3rd stringers, Todd Fincher and a couple of locals that might take a flyer with a state-bred son of Marking. Make it 20 points and like the El Camino Real and Lexington as well as dropping the John Battaglia to 20 points too.
Raise the 20 point races (Sam Davis, Withers, Southwest, Holy Bull, Robert Lewis and Lecomte) to 30 points. The participation level is not great because the point level is too low and these are still more important races than the four listed above.
Create a foreign horse wildcard spot. CDI has basically designated two positions for foreign horses, the Euro path and the Japanese path. In the case where one of those automatic bids isn’t being used, allow a foreign horse who ships to the US and hits the board in a 50+ point US prep, to use the vacant spot. This encourages foreign competition, creates a little buzz and also gives US participants and bettors an opportunity to see those horses against familiar foes prior to the Derby itself. 17 spots (UAE Derby seems like it will be won by foreign horses most years) for domestic horses is sufficient.
The Going in Circles Digest top 10 Preps for Kentucky Derby 149
Fountain of Youth - With 4 contenders emerging from the FoY, that is 20% of the field including favorite Forte, ascending contender Mage, Holy Bull winner Rocket Can and Cyclone Mischief. Forte was clearly the best in here (Earned a TFUS fig of 118 and TG of 2.5) though Mage made a good impression overcoming a difficult trip in his two turn and stakes debut to be a close 4th. The other two have done enough post-FoY to qualify themselves for this relatively mundane field for the 149th Kentucky Derby. Our only prep getting graded an A.
Arkansas Derby - the best horse that competed on the Oaklawn Park road to the Kentucky Derby was Arabian Knight who unfortunately was knocked off the trail after his facile win in the Southwest. Clearly the second best contender to emerge from Hot Springs was Angel of Empire who dusted a decent field in the Arkansas Derby (TFUS fig of 117 and TG 2) earning it the number 2 spot in our rankings. The strength of the win coupled with Reincarnate and Rocket Can also making the field and strong performance figs gives it the slight nod over the other A- preps.
Florida Derby - a few months back when we had bloodstock maven Sid Fernando on the Big Monday show, one of the nuggets of information that he shared with us was how important the Florida Derby has been in terms of “making” stallions over the last few decades. Now that doesn’t have much impact in terms of these rankings but this years FL Derby was our third ranked Derby prep. Forte overcame a tough post and a fierce challenge from Mage to get the victory (TFUS fig of 116 and and TG of 3.5) with Cyclone Mischief hanging around to pick up enough points to get him in. There was a timing error and the speed fig didn’t come back as strong as the Fountain of Youth but with the favorite and two other contenders making the field we gave it the nod as number 3.
Breeders Cup Juvenile - coming in 4th was this race from last year with Forte winning (TFUS 117 and TG 2.5) and Verifying both getting in the Derby starting gate. The margain over the 5th ranked prep was a slightly better TFUS/TG figures for the winner.
Breeders Futurity - the final prep graded an A- on the strength of Forte (again) and sneaky contender Two Phil’s making the final Derby field. The TFUS fig of 115 and TG of 2.75 placed is a tiny notch behind the BC Juvy.
Santa Anita Derby - if runner up Mandarin Hero had made the Derby field, this would have been in contention to be our top rated race. However with only solid contender Practical Move (TFUS 121/TG 4.5) and the fringe but bandwagon friendly Skinner being in there, it got a B+ not an A or A-. The sorta slowish TG figs from the race didn’t help either.
Bluegrass - the featured race of the spring Keeneland meet nailed down 7th with good showings from Tapit Trice and runner up Verifying. Tapit Trice’s TG of 1 was the best of the Derby entrants though the TFUS was just 115 and Sun Thunder’s uninspired and well beaten 4th didn’t help the cause.
Rebel - this prep edged out San Felipe/Risen Star because of figures. Winner Confidence Game earned a 117 TFUS rating and TG of 2 beating other Derby horses Reincarnate and Verifying. In these rankings we don’t hold Keith Desormeaux’s dubious decision to skip the rest of the preps against the race itself.
San Felipe - a lesser version of the Santa Anita Derby minus Mandarin Hero with Practical Move earning TFUS fig of 119 and TG of 3.75 with Skinner being the other Derby entrant
Risen Star - Angel of Empire’s coming out party plus Two Phil’s solid effort and a third wheel in Sun Thunder overcomes slowish TFUS fig of 110 though a 2.5 TG was solid.
Honorable mention: UAE Derby, Lecomte, Louisiana Derby