Dull Derby Doings

Real Writing on Racing 💯

Feb 18, 2023

The Kentucky Derby’s moniker of the “Fastest two minutes in sports” will apply almost every year except for the rare occasion when a Secretariat or Spend a Buck shades the actual 2:00 mark in the demanding 10 furlong Classic. Based upon the early returns thus far this 149th Derby prep season, Big Red’s stakes and track record time of 1:59.40 seems quite secure. To say that the first ten 3 year old Derby point preps have been dull is both being kind and putting it mildly. We have seen a lot of uninspiring performances from a lackluster (so far) group of sophomore colts with the notable exception of a ultra talented colt from a ‘Derby suspended’ outfit, who is being handled with kid gloves.

The marquee names from last years two year old division have barely made an impact on this Derby trail. A quick glance at the top 10 choices in last years final 2022 Kentucky Derby Futures pool reveals that outside of Instant Coffee’s professional looking win in the Lecomte Stakes (Gr III) at FG last month, nothing has happened at all with that group.

Kentucky Derby Future pool #2 - closed 11/27

Obviously a certain trainers horses weren’t eligible to be included in that pool. Yet of his vaunted crew that has commandeered the entire southern California Derby prep season, none looked particularly Baffert Derby winner-esque outside of Southwest (Gr III) winner Arabian Knight. Newgate finally won a stakes when capturing the Baffert exclusive Robert Lewis (Gr III) but post-race was promptly added to the disabled list with a hock injury. Reincarnated, who stunned the Baffert-laden Sham Stakes (Gr III), is presumably being pointed to the San Felipe (Gr II) on March 4 though he doesn’t fit the mold of the typical contender from that outfit. Cave Rock, who flashed brilliance last fall by going 3 for 3 including crushing the American Pharoah (Gr I) at Santa Anita by over 5 lengths before finishing second as the overwhelming 1-2 favorite in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, just had his first work of 2023 on February 13. The prevailing news out of California that pertains to this Derby trail has been the dearth of prep race entries from non-Baffert trainers, not huge performances by his. Still the February 28 deadline to transfer horses to non-suspended Derby trainers (everyone else basically) in order to remain Kentucky Derby eligible looms as the least dull moment of this prep season.

⚖️ It would be unthinkable most years but could the animosity between the Bob Baffert crew and Churchill Downs Incorporated possibly lead to a scenario where the best three year old colt, so far by most measures, Arabian Knight, skips the Kentucky Derby? Imagine if his next start is in the Santa Anita Derby under the care of Mr B and he blows the doors off the field and goes directly to the Preakness? Remember he is owned by Zedan Stable who was also the owner of Medina’s Spirit and has made no bones about being Team Baffert to the core. Two DQ’s in the Derby have probably not made the CDI suits happy despite continued record business that weekend, but a Kentucky Derby field missing (by choice) the potential ‘next big star’ in racing might sting a little.

🦩 Just a reminder that if you are in the South Florida area and have never been to Hialeah, take the time to go check it out. Amazing place where you can still feel the history seeping out of it.

👽 If aliens do show up soon, we can sit them down and attempt to explain some of the horse racing decision-making processes and bureaucracy…they might leave thinking there is no signs of intelligent life on this planet.

🔨 Oaklawn’s 8th on Friday scratched down to a field of four but it was nice to see stakes quality horses competing in an open allowance race on a Friday afternoon. CZ’s Rocket failed in his bid to get over the $2 million dollar mark in earnings which isn’t really breaking anyones heart to be honest. Expect to see the winner Edge to Edge, CZR, Necker Island and Morello head back to stakes competition in the Whitmore and/or the Count Fleet later in the Hot Springs meet.

📷 A mini-controversy erupted on social media Thursday night because some players were unable to grasp the concept of camera angles and placement of the photo finish camera. The race in question was the 8th at Turfway and understandably if you don’t regularly tune in to that track, it’s easy to see how it was confusing as the camera that shoots the pan shot is located past the wire. Naturally from that angle, it appears to give the runners on the inside an advantage over the outside hence the outcry. The photo finish camera, however, is directly on the line so the pictures that it takes are accurate. Pompano Park had a similar pan shot flaw and in time you can train your eye to adjust for the less than perfect angle. It’s totally legitimate to wonder why a brand new $200 million dollar facility doesn’t have a far better pan shot camera position but claims that the pics are photoshopped or some other conspiracy are silly.

🇯🇵 Best of luck to Chuck Fipke’s Shirl’s Speight who has shipped to Japan to take on Grade 1 performers in the $1.9 million dollar February Stakes going a mile on the dirt at Tokyo Racecourse. Post time for the race is approx 1:40 am (EST) Saturday night/Sunday morning.

⚜️ The Fair Grounds has a nice card today with a host of stakes races and some tough allowance and maiden special weight’s too. The 8th race, an allowance for 3 year olds going 8.5 furlongs, has potential stakes horses Cagliostro, First Defender, Banishing and Willakenzie plus others. Tawny Port and Pioneer of Medina make their 4 year old debuts in the Mineshaft (Gr III) against a bunch of ‘B team’ types but I’m interested in another 4 year old in there, Hoist the Gold. He is by Mineshaft out of a Tapit mare and has never run in a two turn race in any of his 16 lifetime starts. His last race was a solid effort when third behind Taiba in the Malibu at 7f and from the inside post he might find his late kick is still effective at a route distance.

🌴 Kathleen O makes her return to the races today at Gulfstream in the Royal Delta (Gr III). Also in there are nice fillies, Classy Edition and Midnight Stroll

🦀 Laurel has a good card today too though it doesn’t seem like that circuit gets enough attention. The Barbara Fritchie (Gr III) and General George (Gr III) anchor the card, which has some other non-graded stakes as well. Pretty good field size and competitive racing should lead to Laurel ranking higher on the simulcasting hierarchy…but for whatever reason, it doesn’t.

📰 Sid Fernando talks about Curlin and how one trainer has had an incredible run with his progeny. Check it out here.

😔 RIP to Hall of Fame trainer John Veitch who passed away this week at age 77. He trained some really great horses over the years including Alydar, whose chief misfortune was being born the same year as Affirmed.

Rachel Alexandra (Gr II) $300,000 1 1/16 3yo fillies

Vahva - Gun Runner filly figures to appreciate the longer trip but this is a tough group and she can’t give up ground at the start like she did when stumbling out of the gate in the Untappable back on the day after Christmas. She is due to improve but again this is a good field and she isn’t all that close on figures.
Hoosier Philly - Undefeated (pet peeve alert - I won’t use that term until a horse wins three races) filly is probably the unofficial leader of the division, especially after last years champion 2 year old filly Wonder Wheel, was upset last week in the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa. She has run excellent speed figs for a two year old filly, handled both a fast track and a sloppy one, albeit over the same Churchill Downs surface and wins the visually impressive award as well. She only has three works since her last race at the end of November but they have all been bullets and Amoss is good at getting them ready off of a break. If she has any vulnerability it might be that her jockey Edgar Morales, who I believe is perhaps the top ‘up and coming’ jockey in the country, doesn’t have a lot of experience riding huge favorites in these sort of races. She doesn’t have a huge edge in figures but like I said last week in the Withers about Hit Show, these sorts of good horses but not overwhelmingly good horses, seem to win an annoyingly high percentage of races these days. If I play the pick 5 (15% takeout!) I probably will not single her.
Knockyoursocksoff - if they suddenly moved this race to the grass it would still be a good race! I’d also give this filly a better chance on the turf though she seemed to handle the dirt fine in the Golden Rod (Gr II). Her style is the issue here as the pace gods didn’t bless this race with a serious amount of early speed and Knockyoursocksoff possesses little of it.
Chop Chop - she was a terrible favorite in the BC juvy fillies and ran horrid in there. Actually ran better than it might appear in her seasons debut in the Silverbulletday, where she chased a moderate pace from the outside and perhaps fell victim to a tad bit of an overconfident ride (tough to be 4 wide both turns in a 7 horse race) when beaten by her stablemate The Alys Look, who is no slouch. Cox adds blinkers which is not something that he does a lot (279 times out of a 7479 race sample size). I may guess wrong here but at a short price I’m thinking regression off of the big number (TG 5.5). Can she win? Absolutely. Will I be surprised? Not overly as she does have the recency edge over her main rival. Will I use her? Probably not.
Pretty Mischievous - solid filly from solid outfit makes her seasons debut here. She got spanked by Hoosier Philly last year in the Golden Rod but made amends next out taking down the Untappable beating The Alys Look (came back to win Silverbulletday) and Vahva. Still she has to improve quite a bit to beat the top ones in here and I’d prefer a longer price if I’m gonna need significant improvement.
Miracle - I have seen the movie Miracle at least 378 times. Winning this race won’t qualify as an upset nearly as big as beating the Soviets in 1980, though she is a NY bred and that historic game was played in Lake Placid, NY. She does have one important trait that hopefully jockey Johnny Velazquez will utilize, early speed. She hasn’t started since finishing 2nd in the Maid of the Mist stakes back in October, setting strong early fractions with blinkers added for the first time. Transferred to Pletcher since that race, she ships in from Palm Beach Downs with a steady series of works, solid speed figures and a pedigree that says more ground will be greatly appreciated (she is by Mendelssohn out of the female family of Curlin). Will she be able to get away on an easy lead? Is she good enough even if she does? I don’t think she will be 12-1 but I’d keep an eye on how the surface is playing before throwing her in or out.

Risen Star (Gr II) $400,000 1 1/8 3yo’s (50 point KYD point race)

Quiet as Midnight - the best thing I can say about him is that after the Risen Star, the allowance class at Delta Downs that he recently ran second in…should still be available to him. I also wonder how many times in his life has trainer Benard Chatters been called Bernard? Probably an annoyingly high number.
Single Ruler - It seems like every year Keith Desormeaux comes up with an inexpensive colt or two that make some noise on the southern Louisiana road to the Kentucky Derby. Confidence Game, who was a $25k yearling purchase by Candy Ride, finished third in the Lecomte (Gr III) and this colt (who was a 65k yearling) by Empire Maker is as live in this spot as a 30-1 morning line horse could be. After not showing a great deal when sprinting in his first two races in Kentucky last fall, he has run much better in two turn races despite being wide on all six turns in his FG races. He graduated in style in his latest with blinkers added, running a big boy speed fig (5 TG) and if Jose Riquelme can work out a trip while saving some ground on the first turn, he is very dangerous here at a huge price.
Shaq Diesel - No idea why Richards didn’t run him in the softish Sam Davis over his home track last weekend rather than shipping 10 hours to get hot and dirty. Appears overmatched.
Determinedly - horses like this are generally less respected these days than the flashy maiden breakers but a case can be made that the development by racing is a better option for the individual horse than via training. Racing gives us evidence, we can see and measure improvement via racing performances while training is just projection. I say it every year and it generally falls on deaf ears but Bob Baffert’s Derby secret, beyond the obvious of extremely talented horseflesh, is the grind that he puts his contenders through. He trains them hard and runs them often enough to provide a solid foundation for the most difficult race that an American thoroughbred will face. Justify debuted this weekend five years ago and Baffert still managed to squeeze three starts in him before the first Saturday in May. American Pharoah only had two starts as a 3 year old (after three in seven weeks as a two year old) but the Derby was also start number three in a 49 day period. Medina’s Spirit raced four times as a three year old before winning his Derby (btw-Equibase still has him as the “official” winner of the 2021 Kentucky Derby). What does all that have to do with Determinedly? Well not all that much as we can see that his development has plateaued though his frequent racing has given him seasoning to the point where running pretty good numbers (TG 6.5) hasn’t caused regression. However he hasn’t improved either and at this point in a three year old colts form cycle, improvement even slight incremental gains is important. Could he break through those numbers and run well in here? Sure he could. Do I think he will? No I don’t but mostly because I think he may have distance limitations more than a lack of development. The Pat Day Mile (Gr II) should be on his agenda if he fails to stay the 9 furlongs this weekend.
Harlocap - somehow this Justify colt has fallen under the radar as he was quietly the first horse transferred away from the care of Mr Baffert, though he was posting works at Santa Anita as recently as last Saturday. Presumably since entries for this race were taken later that morning, Asmussen hadn’t even seen this one before making the entry. He is actually pretty good with a two turn win under his belt but I have no idea what to expect here. Does have some tactical speed to gain position in what might be a scramble into the first turn.
Angel of Empire - in most barns he’d be the stables three year old star, in the Cox conglomerate I’m not sure if he breaks into the top 10. He is pretty good though his style lends itself to trouble in oversized fields like this 14 horse affair. His figs are on the slow side but he has improved each start outside of a failed Kentucky Downs venture. Use on bottom of tri’s and supers perhaps yet even in a large field you likely won’t get fair market value (18-1 or thereabouts) on a trainer who is winning 41%.
Sun Thunder - pricey weanling purchase is progressing though perhaps not fast enough to beat these currently. His main issue is a lack of tactical speed which is the style that many McPeek horses employ. In all of three starts he has settled at the back of the pack and made runs of varying success. Traffic will be an issue
Tapit’s Conquest - I saw where a TV handicapper said he believes this horse might be a Triple Crown winner. Why? I have no idea as he is a talented sort but hasn’t really shown the extreme ability that a Triple Crown winner must have. He has run good figs and last out was hampered by a slow pace against a more seasoned rival, plus he is trained by a 41% trainer. I’m not exactly sure what style that he will employ in an oversized field but you’d imagine that they would like to be in the first flight.
Curly Jack - seems like he peaked in September as his form has been trending south since. I’m not going to put too much weight into the runner up effort to Instant Coffee in his final 2 year old race either. Not for me.
Two Phil’s - A real horse, I was against him in the Lecomte because he figured to get hung wide and a wide trip he did get. He has improved and improved and ran an excellent TG last out (4 after three consecutive 7.75’s). The problem is he is again drawn wide and could run a big number yet finish off the board because of ground loss. I wouldn’t try to talk you out of him if that’s who you came up with.
Silver Heist - what does Corey Lanerie do? He is light raced and drawn outside in a large group. Tough to see success here.
Crupi - see Determinedly comments. I like the fact that he has raced steadily because he is a maiden. I don’t like the fact that he ALWAYS finds trouble in races, sometimes of his own doing. The draw won’t affect him as it will others as he is likely to be lagging back going into the first turn regardless. He will need some help with the pace and it appears on paper that it will be a solid one. Ran a huge fig last out (TG 3.25) and will need to be in that neighborhood again today if he is gonna be part of the winning mix. As far as jockey James Graham goes…when he isn’t filling in to for the Lucky Charms leprechaun 🍀 he is out there upsetting big races at nice prices! If speed is deadly he is probably in trouble but on a fair track with a swift pace, he is dangerous. Hail Crupi, this was his namesakes time of the year. RIP Jimmy.
Victory Formation - perfect record so far, wired a fair bunch in the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn on New Year’s Day last out. Prat seems to have little choice but to send hard from post 13 and try to get to the lead or really close to it. He has been on the inside in all his races, has yet to overcome traffic and he might be pressed if he does clear to the lead. I’m not totally discounting his chance but I don’t really like it, especially at a short price.
Private Creed - color me surprised when I saw his name on the overnight as his entire, successful career, has been on the grass, mostly sprinting. Tough spot to make dirt debut with him drawing close to the outside rail from post 14.

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