Descending on Derby Weekend Preview

Real Writing on Racing 💯

Apr 29, 2021

Hello Derby!

The big event days are here to stay in thoroughbred racing and none is bigger than the first Saturday in May! Kentucky Derby Day marks the end of the road for the Derby trail and the first step along the Triple Crown series, bridging Fall to Winter to Spring and ending in Summer at Belmont Park. The field is finally set, the post positions are drawn and all we can do is wait for post time which is right about 6:57 eastern on Saturday, to see who winner of the 147th Kentucky Derby will be!

In order to help pass the time till the horses enter the special 20 stall Derby starting gate, we have put together a Derby weekend preview for you to check out. Last week we put out our KY Derby rankings which measured who we thought had the best shot to win the race down to who we thought has the least chance. This week our Going in Circles handicappers, Barry Spears and Jason Beides are giving you their choices for the race with all factors including odds factored in. We are doing huge preview podcast covering both Oaks and Derby days, featuring some horses to keep an eye on and potential wagering opportunities, look for it here Thursday evening about 10.

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Kentucky Oaks 147🌸

Free BRIS past performances for the Kentucky Oaks

Free past performances for Churchill Friday

🌸Our view of the Kentucky Oaks field 🌸

*Odds posted are Going in Circles official line (Rated by 🌸)

Paulines Pearl - R. Santana Jr 10-1 🌸🌸🌸Tapit filly prepped for the Oaks in Arkansas, running a close second in the Gr 3 Honeybee and following that up with a score in the Gr 3 Fantasy.She earned an 89 Beyer and 6 on TG for that effort and 20-1 morning line seems insanely high considering this relatively middling group that she faces here. She has shown the ability to rate behind horses and is going to get to save ground in the early stages. A real threat at a good price.
Maracuja - K. Carmouche 35-1 Honor Code filly tries the Oaks despite having only one stakes and two turn appearance, a runner up finish in the Gr 3 Gazelle to one of the favorites for the race, Search Results. She jumped up in speed figures from mediocre numbers to an 88 Beyer and 6.5 on TG for Oaks rookie Atras. She has always been on the outside when she made her run during her brief four race career and might have to eat some dirt after drawing down inside. Unlikely that she is ready to take the needed next step.
Clairiere - T. Gaffalione 12-1 The second filly Asmussen/Stonestreet filly in the field (Paulines Pearl) this Curlin filly exits a second place finish in the Gr 2 FG Oaks to her nemesis Travel Column, having traded decisions with that rival in her last three starts, all Gr 2 events. Her speed figures match up with the contenders as she earned an 87 Beyer last out as well as a 6 on TG but she was lugging in down the stretch plus her style causes ground loss so she has to improve a little more than the rest. She doesn’t have any tactical speed and is likely to be at the back of the pack, potentially compromising her chances in a field that may not have a strong pace. The 1 1/8 distance is not going to be an issue considering her pedigree with the aforementioned Curlin as her sire and her dam, Cavorting was a Grade 1 winner at the distance in the Personal Ensign Stakes at Saratoga. However that lack of early foot puts Clairiere at a disadvantage, and unless speed is dead on Friday afternoon, I’d downgrade her chances.
Crazy Beautiful - JL Ortiz 18-1 A gray Liam’s Map filly who is one of the Oaks fields most experienced entrants with seven lifetime starts, she wore down the field to win the Gr 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks by 2 1/4 lengths. She earned an 83 Beyer which matched her lifetime best when 6th in the BC Juvy Fillies last Fall but got a better TG figure, a 6.25 after getting an 8 in her three year old debut. I’m of the opinion that the south Florida stakes fillies weren’t a stellar bunch this season and not much has happened this spring to change my mind. Note she has been fractious in the gate her last two starts.
Pass the Champagne - JJ Castellano 8-1 🌸🌸🌸Debuted as the favorite this January at Gulfstream in a 7f maiden that was won by Gr 3 Beaumont runner up and undercard Gr 2 Eight Belles stakes contender Slumber Party. The chestnut daughter of Flatter was away slowly but methodically made up ground that day, finding a bit more trouble before getting up to be second. Sold privately after that race she changed barns to George Weaver who entered the filly in the same race a month later where she broke better, stalked the leaders while 4 wide, swept by the field and won by an easier than it looked 2 1/2 lengths. Shipped north to Keeneland to compete in the Gr 1 Ashland she again had some trouble leaving the gate, brushing the door when breaking. She recovered and settled into the pocket behind the leader while pulling on Castellano to go. After briefly looking to be blocked going into the final turn, she edged out and quickly opened up a clear lead turning for home. Malathaat, who is the morning line favorite in the Oaks, ran her down right before the wire but it was a strong first effort against stakes caliber fillies in also her first two turn race. She did rate while being down on the inside but from post position 5, but with little speed drawn inside her, I’d look for Castellano to push her away from the gate and be forwardly placed depending on who from the outside flashes speed going into the first turn. She ran an excellent speed figure in the Ashland earning an 88 Beyer and a 5 TG which makes her one of the fastest fillies in the field. In my view she is also one of the fillies most likely to improve on Friday afternoon and is dangerous at a long price.
Travel Column - F. Geroux 4-1 Gray Frosted filly is co-second choice on the CD morning line coming in off of a facile win in the FG Oaks over arch rival Clairiere. She is consistent, has tactical speed yet also has shown the ability to close ground as she did in her Gr 2 Golden Rod win last fall over the Churchill a surface. She’s run fast coming off of career best Beyer of 90 and TG of 4.5 and has had 6 weeks to recover. Honestly there isn’t a whole lot not to like about her other than some pretty suspect company that she was keeping in New Orleans. If you like her, I won’t try to talk you off of her.
Ava’s Grace - D. Cohen 100-1 ❌ SCRATCHED ❌ She figures to be part of the pace, if not the leader going down the backside. Really not much else to say about her as she is not going to be able to slip away from this group and simply isn’t good enough at the current time.
Moraz - F. Prat 45-1 Set a dawdling pace in a four horse Santa Anita Oaks before losing lead when Soothsay moved up on her inside going into the final turn. She really had no answer and was through before hitting the 1/8th pole. Her Santa Ysabel was a more normally run race and she did fare better in that spot getting a 86 Beyer and 6.5 on TG. Still she seems like a reach in this field.
Coach - L. Saez 40-1 This filly seems to be a cut below the better fillies in here and her best chance seems to be hoping for a fast pace to close into and maybe pick up some of the pieces. She does own a listed stakes victory over this surface last fall but she also hasn’t been all that sharp this year.
Malathaat - JR Velazquez 2-1 🌸 The morning line favorite, this regally bred Curlin filly is undefeated in four starts, getting up in time to become a grade 1 winner in the Ashland at Keeneland last out. Another filly that doesn’t have too many knocks as she had enough speed to win the Tempted stakes last November in wire to wire fashion and showed a different dimension rallying from off the pace in the Ashland. Clearly with her pedigree (Curlin-Dreaming of Julia by AP Indy) the distance isn’t an issue. She is plenty fast having run an 89 Beyer and 4 TG though not really significantly faster than the other contenders. A logical contender that will take some beating if she is able to workout a decent position but the price won’t be very attractive.
Will’s Secret - JK Court 15-1 🌸 There are very few occasions where I will play a horse like this filly in a race like the Kentucky Oaks. Yet this is the exact type of spot where Dallas Stewart horses are dangerous! This filly is actually one of the fastest fillies in here according to TG which has her running 5.75 twice this year in the Martha Washington at Oaklawn and again when running third after a wide trip in the Ashland. Will’s Secret has seasoning, versatility, some tactical speed, will pass horses and is going to be a huge price on the board. I’m not picking her to win but she is a must use underneath in the exotics.
Search Results - I. Ortiz, Jr. 9-2 Lightly raced Flatter filly broke her maiden in early January at Gulfstream but was sent north to Aqueduct to compete in the Busher Invitational going a one turn mile, where she defeated the talented Miss Brazil. She came back to win the Gr 3 Gazelle four week later in her first start around two turns over the lackluster surface in Ozone Park. Search Results won that race seemingly well within herself (.35 faster than the Wood Memorial on the same day) it’s harder to gauge over the extremely slow going, earning a 92 Beyer and 5 TG which matched her previous races numbers. She does still act a little green and I don’t think she beat much of substance in the Gazelle but she is good enough if Irad can workout a trip from the outside. I’m always leery about using such lightly raced horses in these sort of races though, especially at a short price.
Competitive Speed - C. Landeros 80-1 This filly clunked up to a couple of on the board finishes in the Davona Dale and Gulfstream Park Oaks but never really threatened and is seriously compromised trip-wise from post 13.
Millefeuille - J. Rosario 25-1 It’s a rare sight to see Bill Mott and Joel Rosario team up with a 20-1 morning line shot. This Curlin filly seems talented yet hasn’t put it all together yet, twice coughing up leads in deep stretch where she looked like a winner though her last was a big improvement from an odd no-show in the Davona Dale where she was beaten 21 lengths. She has some tactical speed like so many others in this race but she can be headstrong and post 14 is a dilemma. She hasn’t run faster than a 7 TG and with ground loss close to a certainty it’s hard to see her getting a winning trip without massive improvement. Hey it’s a shot at taking two of the best in the game and getting a huge price so we don’t recommend her to get a piece but stranger things have happened.

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Kentucky Derby 147 🌹

Free past performances for KY Derby day

🌹Our view of the Kentucky Derby 147 field 🌹

*The odds posted are the Going in Circles official line (rated by 🌹)

Known Agenda - I.Ortiz, Jr. 4-1 🌹🌹🌹🌹Draws the dreaded rail post position which makes his potential trip a little tricky. He has the right rider to deal with the situation as Irad’s aggressiveness might be required to bull his way out of a tight spot though in a 20 horse field it’s hard to project what may occur. Clearly he has the talent to get the job done, his two races since Pletcher added blinkers were very good. He has the pedigree to get the trip and has 3 wins at 1 1/8 giving him a solid foundation of 5 two turn races since early November. If he can get a similar trip to the Florida Derby where he sat mid-pack on the rail, finding a seam to run without finding too much traffic trouble, he will have a big chance.
Like the King - D.VanDyke 80-1 A nice horse who probably is overmatched here as his two dirt races were subpar and he simply doesn’t look good enough.
Brooklyn Strong - U.Rispoli 75-1 Showed some promise last fall in New York but didn’t do much running in his only three year old start in the Wood. Wasn’t even pointing to the Derby till a rash of defections moved him up the list and the last minute decision to run is not how Kentucky Derby’s are won. Hopefully he can make it through ok and perhaps focus on the B-level (Ohio Derby) and NY bred races later in the summer. I’m sorry if that is harsh but the long list of carnage that the bottom half of the Derby chart shows every year is not a mirage.
Keepmeinmind - D.Cohen 65-1 Has never got untracked this year since showing promise in runner up performances in Breeders Futurity, BC Juvy and winning the KY Jockey Club over the Churchill Downs surface. Another that backed into getting in the race and it’s hard to like him though Doug Salvatore on Going in Cirlces LIVE suggests using him on the bottom of trifecta/superfecta tickets at a huge price if he reverts back to his one run, closer style.
Sainthood - C.Lanerie 80-1 Was probably best in the Jeff Ruby though it’s hard to believe that makes any difference in this race. His two dirt starts were slow and while he seems like an improving sort, it’s hard to make a case that he will make the huge jump required to even be a fringe contender.
O Besos - M. Pedroza 22-1 🌹Also an improving colt, he rallied in the Louisiana Derby to just miss second behind Hot Rod Charlie who led throughout that race. He is likely (and should be) far off the pace in here and should be rallying in the stretch, perhaps picking up the pieces and landing on the board. He still has room to improve and frankly he will have to as it’s hard to imagine he will get the clean run he got at the FG in a 20 horse field full of lightly experienced contestants. Like so many in this race, his last race is a jump up from his previous efforts and it’s difficult to know if that was his best or if he has another improvement in him. Answer that question properly and you might find a live long shot right here. Greg Foley is a good guy and I will be rooting for him.
Mandaloun - F.Geroux 18-1 This horse can make you look like a genius if you back him to rebound off of his complete non-effort in the Louisiana Derby and he goes on to win the Kentucky Derby. He can also make you look foolish if he repeats that effort which should land him about 17th in this race. Doug tried to suggest that the wide trip did him in but I’m skeptical as he looked like he was out of gas before even getting to the second turn. There have been no excuses given for that poor performance so this is a shot in the dark though his recent works suggests that he is coming into the race in good spirits. I have flip-flopped on him from a must use to a toss and I’m really not even sure now.
Medina Spirit - JR.Velazquez 8-1 🌹🌹🌹Drawing inside the other likely early speed runners may force Johnny’s hand here as he may try to send to the lead out of the gate and going into the first turn, perhaps conceding and taking up a stalking position if someone else is dead set on going to the front. He has danced every dance this year and despite Baffert’s seemingly never ending list of high dollar, blue blooded Derby prospects, the son of Protonico is his only one left standing. His TG pattern is steady and he hasn’t made a big jump forward yet, if this race is where he does it, there is a good chance that he and his white haired lightning rod trainer are standing in the winners circle and you are going to get a better price than you should as I have him on the Going in Circles morning line at 8-1 vs the official price of 15-1.
Hot Rod Charlie - F.Prat 10-1 🌹🌹 Ran them off their feet in the Louisiana Derby, showing more speed than he had in prior starts. His race prior was a decent effort in the Robert Lewis where he seemed to hang a bit in the stretch, unable to get by a stubborn Medina Spirit. He has the requisite experience with 4 two turn races including a super effort in the Breeders Cup Juvy in his first start after breaking his maiden. Prat will likely use that tactical speed to position himself on the flank of Medina Spirit and take up a stalking position down the backside. He is in the same boat as that one as far as speed figures go as he hasn’t made a jump up yet and doing so might put him in the winners circle.
Midnight Bourbon M.Smith 25-1 I’m not a fan of this horse in this race as he is a grinder and doesn’t quicken like he will need to do in a huge field. That doesn’t mean I don’t think he is an improving colt that has a lot of ability, I just don’t like him in this particular race at this distance. To me is is better suited to a race like the smaller field derby preps where he can easily find a forward position and just gallop and gallop and gallop. He has also been acting very high strung, acting up while paddock schooling Tuesday afternoon. My future book favorite for the Jim Dandy.
Dynamic One JL.Ortiz - 15-1 🌹🌹🌹I really liked his race in the Wood as he was very wide around the first turn and at least four wide on the second turn (TG has him 4w5w) and still surged to the lead mid-stretch only to get run down late by his stable mate Bourbonic who saved ground both turns. He jumped up on figures and while he might not have another big improvement left in him, his number puts him in the top rung of contenders. I believe the seasoning and fitness he received in the Wood is a plus and if Ortiz can time his run and get a little lucky with the trip, he has a real shot.
Helium - J.Leparoux 100-1 I bet him in the Tampa Bay Derby because while his dirt pedigree was a little bit of a mystery, I had zero respect for most of that field and as a pretty good horse who had run well in both starts at Woodbine, I thought he was live at 15-1 in there. That said I’m baffled as to why Casse did not run back off that effort which while good, wouldn’t seem to be nearly enough in terms of seasoning (he has never been behind horses) or fitness (one race in 6 months), even in a prep like the Lexington. The horse he beat that day, Hidden Stash, didn’t impress in his subsequent start and this seems to be more of a case of “let’s get there” than “let’s try to win”.
Hidden Stash - R.Bejarano 125-1 He came into the year as potentially a horse that could show continued improvement and jump aboard the Derby trail. That improvement didn’t really materialize yet because of defections, here he is. Cant recommend in any fashion.
Essential Quality - L.Saez 7-2 🌹🌹The undefeated, reigning 2 year old champion is coming into the Derby off of a hard fought victory in the Bluegrass. He hasn’t really done anything wrong in his career, has exhibited versatility, has run excellent figures and has tactical speed as well. Clearly him winning this race wouldn’t be a surprise but there is the question of does he really want 1 1/4? My other observation about him is that he has had four good trips in a row, might some adversity in the Derby cause him to enough trouble to get beat? At 2-1 there is no way that I’m playing and honestly I’m more likely to leave him off of tickets than include him.
Rock Your World - J.Rosario 10-1 Showed real talent wiring the field in the Santa Anita Derby in his dirt debut. That he has speed and ability is not in question, what is not yet known is will he need the lead in this race to be at his best and if he isn’t on the lead, can he take kickback and still finish? Horses as lightly raced and lacking in experience as this colt is rarely make an impression in the Kentucky Derby let alone win it. He has yet in any of his three races to have been in behind horses and it’s hard to imagine that he will be able to come off the pace while losing ground on the turns. With Caddo River out and the Concert Tour trip still fresh in his mind, might Rosario gun Rock Your World to the lead right from the start? Honestly I’d like his chances a lot more if that is the tactic that is going to be employed.
King Fury - B.Hernandez, Jr. 75-1 Another late entrant, he relished the sloppy track at Keeneland, winning the Lexington though the forecast looks like a fast track is in store for Saturday. He has never run two good races in a row and is coming back on relatively short rest off of his biggest speed figure which makes the proposition of him winning dicey. The distance shouldn’t be an issue with his pedigree being by Curlin though his mare, the top class Taris was a sprinter. His late running style makes him another that might be able to get on the board at a long price.
Highly Motivated - JJ.Castellano 15-1 Ran well in the Bluegrass but inexplicably changed leads late, costing him momentum and he was nailed on the wire by Essential Quality. Another horse that is clearly talented but I’m skeptical about his pedigree in terms of getting 1 1/4 especially with a wide draw which is likely going to cause ground loss at least on the first turn. I said on Going in Circles LIVE that I’d love to bet him in the Woody Stephens stakes (7f grade 1 on Belmont day) future book because I don’t think that he will be heading to Baltimore after Saturday’s race. If he wins I will admit I was wrong and simply turn the page but I’m pretty confident I’m not.
Super Stack - R.Santana, Jr. 30-1 Greatly benefitted from a cut throat speed duel in the Arkansas Derby, sitting in the pocket behind the embattled pace horses and shifting out in the stretch to go past them and post the upset. The group he beat looks more and more suspect, he hasn’t shown in his prior races that he was close to the top of the class and post 18 might prove troublesome in getting him early positioning.
Soup and Sandwich - T.Gaffalione 90-1 I don’t think this horse has had nearly enough preparation or experience to win this race. Again another talented horse that may well win a bunch of races down the road but is ill-suited to win this one. No clue as to what the plan will be from post 19 as he is another that hasn’t spent much time rating behind horses and is likely not fast enough to clear the field going into the turn.
Bourbonic - K.Carmouche 45-1 - The post draw doesn’t really hurt too bad as he will likely be employing the same tactics as last out when he trailed in the Wood Memorial before unleashing a strong stretch rally to shock that group at 72-1. It was his only good race and sort of a flukey one over a ludicrously deep Aqueduct surface which seems to be the opposite of what he might find Saturday in Louisville. He needs a pace meltdown and some traffic luck but if he gets both of those he may sneak onto the back end of the superfecta results.

⭐️ Here is a link to the Going in Circles LIVE show from Tuesday with excellent racing analyst Doug Salvatore going through the Derby horses individually

⭐️⭐️ Here is a link to the second half of that show with THT Bloodstock’s Kerry Thomas talking about his annual report Kentucky Derby Herd Dynamics. You can find that report here

Links to Derby stuff…

🌹 Joe Nevills of the Paulick Report does a nice job breaking down which Derby horses are best bred to get the 1 1/4 distance

🌹Wallethub.com has a plethora of mostly silly Derby data but it’s sorta interesting

🌹DRF’s Road to the Derby is a great resource with the result chart, race recap and analysis of every KY Derby prep in order by date.
🌹Here is a look at some of the Oaks undercard stakes, Latroienne and Alysheba and Edgewood, Eight Belles and TwinSpires Turf Sprint

🌹ABR’s listing of the Derby Week TV and Radio coverage

🌹The Champ Tyson Fury is going to be in town for the big race Saturday to see his namesake race

🌹Wanna free roll at a million bucks? Check this out!

Going In Circles Digest

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