Derby weekend winners and losers

Real Writing on Racing 💯

May 07, 2024

Success for racing during these times is measured in far different terms than it had been for the vast majority of its existence. This past week at Churchill Downs was much less tumultuous than last years Derby week, despite the latest NY Times attempt to paint racing in the worst possible light, using last years pre-Derby spat of fatalities in Louisville as the basis for its negative theme. Fortunately due to a plethora of factors including simple luck, we were spared from having to deal with issues of that nature last week. Outside of a single disagreement between the head regulatory vet and the connections of Honor Marie, which was settled after a considerable amount of diagnostic testing showed the colt to be sound, it wasn’t a late scratch-fest like 2023. The weather wasn’t ideal with quite a bit of rain creating a wet track for Oaks day and the early portion of the Derby day card, but it could have been worse. Yet business was booming, CDI announcing Sunday that wagering turnover for Derby Day and the big race itself smashed previous highs set last year, $320.5 million vs $288.7 and $210.7 million vs $188.7. Those numbers include $10.1 dollars bet on the Derby from Japan. Total handle for the week set a new standard at $446.6 million, just staggering numbers. Consider that when the controversial Bob Baffert last participated in the Kentucky Derby in 2021, a total of $233.1 million was bet so handle on Derby Day has increased 27% in his absence. That is information that should temper many of the dubious arguments that the extended suspension imposed by CDI has somehow lessened the importance of or damaged the Derby itself. Fair or unfair, we all have been witnesses to CDI’s allegiance to the alter of the bottom line over all else and that reality may play a part in their upcoming decision on Mr Baffert’s status. Here is hoping that the proper contrition is shown, the correct rings are kissed and we can finally put the sordid episode in the past where it belongs.

Derby Week Recap

Winners:

Ken McPeek - Pulled off the rare Oaks/Derby double for the first time since Ben Jones did it in 1949. Not only that, he won the dual classics with a 40k yearling by a stallion that stands for $7500 (Fast Anna) that has produced zero two turn dirt graded stakes winners before Thorpedo Anna; and a homebred by $10,000 stallion Goldencents, who only had 1 other Grade 1 winner through 7 crops to race. McPeek greatly enhanced his Hall of Fame candidacy this weekend which is something that I hadn’t considered before Sunday. He’s now won all three legs of the Triple Crown plus the Travers, the Kentucky Oaks, many of the major graded stakes in Kentucky plus has over $121 million in earnings with 2022 wins as of today. I also hadn’t noticed that he has 17 Breeders Cup placings and famously selected and purchased Curlin as a yearling and it’s not as though he is close to the end of his career.
Brian Hernandez, Jr - He pulled off the slightly less rare double but it was a coming out party for a classy, professional rider who has had a fine but mostly under-the-radar career nationally. He rode Thorpedo Anna in a clever fashion by aggressively sending her to the lead and not allowing some of his chief rivals on the outside to cross over on her, plus forcing them to lose ground early. His Kentucky Derby ride was reminiscent of fellow Louisana bred jockey Calvin Borel’s rail skimming steer on Super Saver in the 2010 Derby. He grabbed position on the rail almost directly out of the starting gate, held on to it while in the pocket behind the early leaders, who were setting a swift early pace, squeezed through a narrow opening inside the tiring Track Phantom turning for home, opened a clear margin mid-stretch and left just enough in the tank to hold off Sierra Leone and Forever Young. Hernandez has won over 2500 races and $130 million in purses plus he did win a Breeders Cup Classic on Fort Larned a little over a decade ago. This weekend however, he didn’t only remind everyone about his talent 20 years after winning an Eclipse as champion apprentice jockey, he immortalized himself in Kentucky Derby lore and that lasts forever.
Churchill Downs - After spending the better part of the last three years duking it out with Bob Baffert and company over their suspensions of him at CDI properties, they came out looking like a winner once again. The 150th Derby celebration went off without a hitch, the pricey, new paddock drew rave reviews, the racing all week was competitive, the controversies few, no breakdowns and booming handle figures added to huge attendance numbers spelled out a huge W for the often maligned Louisville corporation. The ratings from NBC announced on Sunday indicated that the 150th Derby was also the most watched Derby since 1989 (Sunday Silence vs Easy Goer) which I don’t think anyone saw coming. It would be nice to see CDI and Baffert come to an agreement that allowed his participation once again moving forward, as their point has been proven without a doubt and an reaching out with an olive branch at this point makes more sense than not.
Kaitlin Free - Churchill Downs affable paddock host has been a mainstay on their programming for several years now with Turfway Park and Colonial Downs on her schedule beyond the flagship. She is always well-prepared with her pre/post race interviews, but has also proven to have an excellent opinion as a handicapper (is not afraid to be against chalk) and assessing horses physical condition as well. After basically nailing both the Kentucky Oaks and Derby this weekend, many prominent figures have taken note including noted racing historian and bloodstock expert Sid Fernando and ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit who said on X (formerly Twitter), “Nailed it Kaitlin Free I know who I’ll be listening to moving forward. Congrats on this accurate and next level analysis!”.
Travis Stone - Great race call of the Derby to go along with a week of his excellent calls. I’m a track feed truther, I find the network coverage to be abhorrent if you are trying to wager and the race presentation plus Stone’s steady calls are easily far more palatable.

Losers:

Todd Pletcher - It’s not often that someone who trains as exciting of a prospect as Mindframe could be called a loser. That colt, a 3yo by Constitution dusted a good allowance group Saturday morning on the Derby undercard, earning a 97 Beyer after he had gotten 103 for his debut score in late March at GP. Yet outside of Mindframe, the Pletcher barn has had a poor showing since the calendar turned to May with a 29-1-3-4 record overall, including Leslie’s Rose and Fierceness running 13th and 15th in the Oaks and Derby coming off big wins their preps for those spots. While this is likely to only be a blip on the radar, it hasn’t been a big week for the Pletch and the Commish.
John Stewart - a newby on the ownership scene, Mr Stewart spends more time on social media than even Commish Repole. He has been spending money like it’s burning a hole in his pocket (which is a good thing) and he has shown a willingness to support important initiatives like aftercare and backside benevolence. However he lands on this side of the docket after his Derby week results were less than stellar. Recent extremely pricey 2yo purchase ($740,000) for Resolute Racing, a Complexity ridgling named Mensa, ran a well beaten 6th in the Kentucky Juvenile earning a 37 Beyer. Stewart was also a partner in Derby starter Just a Touch who absolutely bombed, beaten over 50 lengths in an inexplicably bad performance. We are not wishing ill will on anyone excited enough to invest tens of millions in the sport in many different areas but a quick reminder that this game has humbled virtually every one that has ever been involved. Talking about winning big races is easy, actually doing it is not, as I’m sure his new friend the Commish will attest to.
Bob Baffert supporters - Bob is heading to Maryland next week with a great chance to add to his already giant Classic race trophy case, so missing the Derby is not the end of the world for him (even if Muth did just beat up on Mystik Dan). Even his most fervent supporters, who have bombarded the social media world for 3 years with inane theories about the demise of Kentucky Derby sans Bob, have little to support their claims after every financial indicator has gone way up since 2021. Once again, here’s to hoping that the differences can be settled and he will be allowed to participate in the 2025 Derby…but all the projected doom and gloom from his fan base have been terrible misguided.
The Kentucky Stewards - While most of the races this past week went off without a hitch, the lack of an inquiry after the running of the Kentucky Derby has thrust them back in the spotlight and not in a positive light. It’s imperative that the public believes that the rules of racing are being properly adjudicated and there are more eyes on the Kentucky Derby than any other, by a long way. That the incident between Sierra Leone and Forever Young didn’t merit the stewards lighting the inquiry sign to show the public (the world in this case) that they are looking, is a mistake. Especially so considering the long period of time it took for the placing judges to examine the photo to make sure that they had the correct order of finish. The rules of racing in Kentucky are mostly vague but a case could be made that Sierra Leone herded Forever Young (rule 2), costing that horse a finishing position (rule 4-especially based on the scant margins ) and Tyler Gafflione intentionally placing his hand and whip on Forever Young’s flank could also possibly have been a foul according to the KY regulations (rule 3).
I’m not advocating that they SHOULD (I probably would have but I’d rather have less Stewards interference than more so I see the other side too) have taken Sierra Leone down but that the incident clearly merited an official inquiry being called so that the rest of us know that the stewards did in fact see it. Statements released Monday afternoon aren’t nearly enough and had the photo finish revealed that Sierra Leone did in fact win the race, we would have a far bigger problem on our hands.
Larry Colmus - Unfortunately drubbed the call of the Derby by misidentifying Mystical Dan as Resilience. Hey calling races is a tough job, the Kentucky Derby especially so…but…he only has one job for NBC….