Derby Listing and Tepid Preps
Real Writing on Racing 💯
It’s a decent racing weekend in terms of quality races and we have some stakes action to wager on! Fair Grounds is running a Derby prep as well as some other stakes and we will take a quick look at that card. We also figured we’d post an official list of horses (In no particular order) who we think have a chance of winning the 149th Kentucky Derby at this time, not a ranking of the credentials of the various three year olds. As always we’d love to see your lists and comments, just remember this is supposed to be a fun endeavor, it’s not the end of the world if they all bomb 💣.
The Going in Circles official Kentucky Derby List Jan 15
Post Time - I’m holding a LIVE Derby futures ticket at 263-1
Forte - He is good
Instant Coffee - Trainer is currently unbeatable
Arabian Knight - Baffert trains for now
Crupi - Might be this seasons Commandperformance but maybe not
Disarm - Hoping for late development
Verifying - Looked damn good last week
Corona Bolt - My Bolt D’Oro bias shows
Gilmore - Sleeper Baffert
Lecomte Stakes (Gr III) $200,000 8.5 furlongs 3yo’s
Echo Again - Destroyed maidens first time out at Saratoga but has been in full retreat in the stretch in two races since, both stakes around two turns. Likely pacesetter or just off of it again, especially with Itzos opting to scratch to run at Turfway, though Asmusssen has been known to change course with tactics (Epicenter in last years LA Derby). If speed is strong on Saturday he’d be upgraded but not overly enamored.
Denington - adds blinkers and Lanerie off of a pair of relatively mediocre stakes tries where he gave up a lot of ground early in the race. If speed is awful on Saturday perhaps you can toss him underneath in exotics.
Bromley - Two for two sprinting for a resurgent Paulo Lobo. Paired 9.5 TG figs which is a good pattern to build upon though I’m more inclined to believe he was simply getting decent numbers in ideal situations with great trips against suspect competition. Sometimes looking at the sire may give you a clue as to how a young horse may fare when presented with a new situation (stretch out in distance/surface change, etc.) however Bromley is by Mastery whose progeny had very little success doing anything so far as his first crop has now reached 4 years of age and he has produced only one stakes winner from 149 starters. If he is 20-1, taking a flyer that he might jump up going long first time (he may get a good stalking trip) isn’t the worst bet in the world but at anything close to his 5-1 morning line, no thanks.
Confidence Game - Another bargain purchase that Keith Desormeaux has turned into a solid performer. The 25k Keeneland September grad makes his sixth start here, the Candy Ride colt sports a 5: 2-1-1 record with $183k in earnings so far. He has shown versatility, winning both races on the lead though also showing the ability to pass horses in his other ‘on the board’ finishes. His only stakes attempt came back in September when jockey Jimmy Graham might have moved him a little too soon and a little too wide when he was 5th in the Iroquois (Gr III), a race whose form has held up pretty well. His TG figs are light (9.75 top) though steadily improving, can handle the distance, has some versatility and should be a decent enough price.
Tapit’s Conquest - off 112 days since breaking his maiden going this trip back on October 1 at Churchill Downs. Certainly can win as trainers stats are difficult to believe in many of the pertinent categories including winning at 45% at the current FG meet (19-12-3-2 since Dec 17 at FG). Geroux batting 39% for the outfit over the last 60 days. Is cross-entered in the 9th race Saturday, a six horse allowance race for three year old’s going the same 8.5 furlong distance (Cox has another impressive Tapit maiden breaker in there as well) which is where he may ultimately land. If he runs in the stake he merits respect though I’d lean against more than for.
Itzos - Scratched
Instant Coffee - showed grit winning his unveiling at the Spa at 14-1 and simply got too far back in start 2 at Keeneland in the Breeders Futurity (Gr I). Rebounded from that 4th place finish to capture the slowish (soft pace for the level) Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill though he overcame a wide trip in doing so. His TG’s have been steady (his last suffered from the weak early fractions) and no one in this group has run particularly fast, though you are going to take a hit on what his fair market odds should be. Of course you are betting on a 45% trainer with one of the top jocks in America flying in to take the mount so it’s folly to believe that a good price looms. In my view Instant Coffee has a lot of improvement left in him and a leap forward is a big step towards the top of the division but that is just speculation and taking short prices on horses like this can lead to agita.
Two Phil’s - These are the toughest horses for me to evaluate. Minor track sensation tried the big leagues (and two turns), gets comeuppance from Forte and Loggins, rebounds by crushing softish group in the slop the weekend before the Breeders Cup. Has been training at Hawthorne which serves to either toughen him up training in the Chicago winter cold or causes him to inhale too many toxic fumes from the Waste Management operation across the street from the backside entrance. Oddly enough is the first FG starter for Rivelli which was surprising to me. He has run TG as fast at Instant Coffee BUT the manner in which he ran them (sprint/chasing super fast division leaders/sloppy track) make me question whether or not he is for real. The Riv wins at a apocalyptic rate but rarely competes in these deeper Derby prep waters. I imagine a relatively wide trip may be in the offing and that isn’t ideal either.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Echo Again
Silverbulletday (Listed) $150,000 1mile 70 yards 3yo F
Norah - Sounds more like your aunt from Elmira than a Kentucky Oaks filly but she does have a nice record (3-2-1-0) against fellow La Breds. The homebred daughter of the late Fast Anna is out of a Malibu Moon mare that had a brief racing career so how she might handle the stretch out is a mystery. Fadeville.
Cotton Candy Annie - Was claimed out of a winning effort for maiden 50k in early November at CD, paid quick dividends winning a sloppy track allowance race at the end of the month before a wide trip debacle in her FG and stakes debut. This isn’t a particularly strong KY Oaks prep but this isn’t a particularly good filly. Faderoo too.
Hayunevano - Name makes me hungry as it reminds me of a ‘south of the border breakfast’ option. Has some speed which she flashed last out in the Untappable Stakes over this surface, at this same distance 28 days ago. However she isn’t all that fast and unless she sneaks away to a long and lonely lead, she will likely just be toast in here. Interesting perhaps only to me but she rarely works, only 2 ‘official works’ since Breeders Cup weekend though she has run three times since then (in other words a entire racing season for Flightline).
The Alys Look - Made a nice run on the turn to menace mid-stretch in the Untappable but couldn’t gain late on perfect trip winner Pretty Mischievous. The “other” Cox gets Saez as regular pilot Geroux moves to race favorite and the “main” Cox, Chop Chop. She cruised over maidens the start prior over this same surface and her only off effort was in the slop at CD. She hasn’t gotten great TG’s despite being wide in her last two but this class of three year old fillies have been pretty slow as a group. Has worked in company with Chop Chop last 2. That said she is likely sitting on a move forward though the human connections will prevent too much of an overlay.
Chop Chop - I am as strong of an advocate of waiting to see how the various conditions play out (weather, scratches, biases, wind, etc.) before going 100% in or out on a horse, that exists. That said these are the types that I will almost always bet against. She was a terrible, terrible favorite in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies and I didn’t use her on a single ticket (I still didn’t win lol). Horses with visually impressive efforts that produce slow figures are the Micheal Jordan’s of tossouts and in this day and age where computer algorithms dictate where a great deal of the money comes from, aren’t all that common. She was bet down because of a furious rally from far back in the Alcibiades when second to race winner, and eventual Breeders Cup champion Wonder Wheel. However that race only got her assigned an 8.5 TG (81 Beyer) and with a one run closing style shown in her only dirt race, passing 12 or 13 better fillies in the BCJF was unlikely. She did manage to get totally lost that day and never even offered up a mild late run and Mr Rosario may not have been asked to participate further with her. That said this isn’t a strong field and her Alcibiades effort probably annexes this, however at short odds it is very difficult to have a lot of confidence, the trainers beyond gaudy stats notwithstanding.
Amber Cascade - Added lasix and caught a wet track when breaking her maiden decisively at FG on New Year’s Eve. Has improved all three starts (TG 19 to 15 to 10) for a trainer that doesn’t get them too cranked up early but she has to make another jump to be in the winning mix and she has already come a long ways since her debut in late October.
Forest Chimes - Broke her maiden impressively in the other division opposite of Amber Cascade on Dec 31st. Sitting 5th behind a solid pace, she angled out passing the quarter-pole and inhaled the field mid-stretch, rider Lanerie keeping her to task to the wire as she was a touch green once she hit the lead. It was the sort of effort that you like to see from a first time starter, showed patience and willingness to rate, moved sharply when asked and eagerly passed horses while striding out. She also received a 10 TG which isn’t so fast where you’d think she would regress on the quick three week turnaround. First time starter maiden breakers tend to be over-bet first time facing winners but the daughter of Tonalist flashed some real talent and might be good enough. Trainer Barkley has sneaky good non-graded stakes numbers (20%) and is off to a solid start at the FG meet (13-3-2-2).
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Forest Chimes
GIC DIGEST overlay of the day (sponsored by GAME OF SILKS)
Race 8 at Gulfstream Park - #6 America’s Guest - he was hard to handle early in his debut, fighting jockey Kendrick Carmouche for the first half of the race. When he asked him to run heading into the turn he didn’t get much response till a rival passed him on the outside. Once Carmouche got him back into running mode, he made a decent bid while working his way to the outside. It’s the type of hidden effort that green two year olds often improve a lot off of. Unfortunately he was rained off next start and didn’t show up at all in the slop, getting beat 47. Freshened since, he adds lasix, has a series of good works and gets the underrated Miguel Vasquez who is 32% for Gargan, whose horses have been solid at GP. The morning line is 8-1 and if the first-timers get bet he might drift even higher than that.
🏇🏻 Stupid Fact of the week: The seven year old Fair Grounds regular Chess Chief has run at the New Orleans oval 12 times with 5 wins. He has run at tracks other than FG 26 times with 0 wins.
📽 Todays video of the week is for the namesake of todays 3 yo filly stake at FG: Hall of Famer Silverbulletday
