Commencing Final Looks

Real Writing on Racing 💯

We have reached the critical stage on the 2024 Kentucky Derby preparatory schedule as time is winding down on opportunities for potential contenders to earn points for entry into the May version of the Big Dance. I don’t believe it’s out of bounds to consider this crop of three year olds as unsettled as any in decades as we hit the ‘100 points to the winner’ section of the calendar. Last year’s thousand pound gorillas, Fierceness and Nysos, have both hit bumps in the road and no one else has really taken control of the division, mostly due to a troubling trend of relative inactivity among those who could be king. The future book favorite coming out of pool number 5 is Sierra Leone, a deep closing son of GunRunner who has but a single grade 2 win to his credit and has shown to be quite effective on a wet track, but is still a bit of a mystery on a dry surface. The second choice from that pool was the aforementioned and relatively embattled Fierceness, who has one start in 4 months and it was not the type of effort that exuded confidence. We have the usually conservative Christophe Clement pondering “training up” to the Kentucky Derby with Deterministic, a promising Liam’s Map colt who has had more chips removed from his ankle (1) than he has two turn races under his belt (0)…yet is only 16-1 in the pool. Conquest Warrior, trained by the iconic Shug McGaughey, is a colt by City of Light who looks to have a bright future, but has never even appeared in a stakes race as of yet and he is also listed at 16-1. An undefeated Japanese runner, Forever Young (Jpn) is only 12-1 while attempting to take the UAE Derby route to Louisville, a journey that has thus far proved fruitless for those who have traveled it. Timberlake won the Champagne (Gr I) last October before a disappointing run in the BC Juvenile (GrI), returned in good form when winning the Rebel (Gr I) rather emphatically. In our eyes he would be the most logical winner at this point, yet he still will only have 2 preps in 5 months leading into the Derby, a light schedule that gives us pause. This isn’t your fathers Kentucky Derby Trail, literally all the major contenders seem to lack a solid foundation…but someone is gonna win the thing…aren’t they?

🤬 California racing is in shambles (we will have a piece focused on this soon)

🎪 Saratoga season passes just went on sale which helps thaw out the locals as they remember that summer isn’t too far off while dealing with the final (hopefully) cold snap of the winter with perhaps a dozen more inches of snow (though technically it’s now Spring) coming. The Saratoga meet stakes schedule was just released which you can read about here.

🇦🇪 The Dubai World Cup is next weekend and the races are shaping up to be interesting events with the UAE Derby having strong implications for the Kentucky Derby as the final prep for top contender Forever Young (Jpn) 🇯🇵

🏅 Keeneland opens soon and with its Spring meet comes 2 yo racing and we often get the first glimpse at the progeny of new stallions who have thier first crop hitting the racetrack. One freshman stallion who may have not been on your mind who is getting rave reviews thus far is Game Winner. Read Sid Fernando’s recent piece on him here.

🏇🏻Check out USASteeplechase, a daily Substack newsletter that covers plenty of flat racing in addition to some jumpers stuff. Today’s edition can be found here.

🏅The boys at the Saratoga Special put out their weekend preview which you can access by clicking here.

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Jeff Ruby Steaks (Gr III) $700,000 3yo 1 1/8 Tapeta (100 KYD pts)

1. Freedom Principle - I get why the son of Flameaway is here as he seems to be better on the synthetic and GP’s 3yo stakes offerings on that surface in the winter don’t exist. He was pretty good last fall when winning the Armed Forces but has been a non-factor in grass stakes during the Championship meet, albeit against better company. Hard to love but easy to root for.

2. Dancing Groom - Vino Rossi colt raced dull last out in the scratch-marred, slow-paced Fountain of Youth (Gr II) at GP and I’d love to hear the story that landed Frankie Dettori in the saddle for this spot. For Frankie fans only.

3. Lucky Jeremy - Does anyone have the Sunland Park to Turfway shipper numbers? Perhaps NYRAbets Matt DeSantis would have them but it’s interesting to note that his sire Lookin at Lucky has been a fairly productive synthetic track sire and if you recall the early part of his career back in 2009, he was a grade 1 winner on the surface. This horse does have good early foot and provided he breaks well should be able to get good position early. It’s a guessing game on Tapeta but the Bill Morey trained colt looks live here at anything close to his 8-1 morning line.

4. Noted - Would it be a surprise if the Pletcher trained son of Cairo Prince was able to handle the synthetic surface well enough to take down this race named after expensive meat? No. Is there any strong indication that will happen here? Also no. Thus far in his career on the traditional surfaces, he either runs really well or he runs not so well and it’s a complete guess as to what will happen here.

5. Agate Road - Scratched

6. Northern Flame - Flameaway colt exits a solid run in the Rebel (Gr II) where he hung on to be third after contesting a pretty solid early pace. McPeak switches him to Tapeta for the first time in his 8 race career and he has an interesting TG pattern where he improved all the way to a 6.25 TG in his first 4 races, bombed and ran terrible in the Street Sense (Gr III) over a sloppy track last fall before improving three more times culminating with a 6.75 last out. Figures to be forwardly placed and like so many, you are guessing he will handle the surface which makes it tough to be confident either tossing him out or on the other hand, tossing him in.

7. Woodcourt - chased the pace in the Rebel (Gr II) directly outside of Northern Flame before tiring to be 4th, which is where he lands once again. Unlike many of the other contenders the Ransom the Moon colt has Tapeta form, winning an optional claimer last December over this surface. Current trainer Contreras claimed him out of that effort and he has improved since in two subsequent, albeit on the dirt at Oaklawn. ‘The Axeman’ Luan Machado gets the mount here and he has weaved magic on several occasions at the current meet including guiding this guy to the winners circle. A live contender at a square price.

8. Otello - Clement trainee exits a weak effort in the Holy Bull (Gr III) after taking down what seemed to be a decent version of the Mucho Macho Man at GP on New Year’s day defeating subsequent stakes winners First World War (on grass) and Sam Davis (Gr III) winner No More Time. Like a broken record, we have little indication if he will or won’t Tapeta and while he appears to be a contender, Saez landing on Noted should be.

9. Seize the Grey - Arrogate colt’s season debut in an allowance at OP a month ago was just what you’d like to see for a comeback race, a strong performance with a figure that bested his two year old top. Has tactical speed, isn’t facing the top of the division here and if he handles the surface fine, he’d have to be given a solid chance to work his way into the mix of serious win contenders.

10. Endlessly - the probable post time favorite, the son of Oscar Performance exits a stakes win over a Tapeta surface at GG in the final running of the El Camino Real. Trainer McCarthy has indicated this was the goal for the colt all along, they don’t have Derby plans at the current time. The only blemish on an otherwise perfect record including a pair of So Cal grade III turf wins last Fall, was a poor trip in last years BC Juvy Turf. On paper his credentials look better than his speed figures do though and one should be wary at taking a short price on a horse who isn’t the fastest horse in the race.

11. Baytown Chatterbox - tough spot for this gelding

12. West Saratoga - the real west Saratoga is currently covered in snow which has nothing to do with this son of Exaggerator or his chances here. I have no real feel what to think as his form had improved quite a bit prior to his win in last fall’s Iroquois (Gr III) but has been erratic since.

13. Circle P - Scratched to run in Private Terms Stakes at Laurel

14. Triple Espresso - Omaha Beach colt was also entered by Pletcher in the Louisana Derby but scratched from there to run here. Has good form though exclusively on the turf and figures to lose ground from the outside post though I suppose at TP this isn’t as big of a problem it would be at other locations. Runs decent grass figures but needs to improve a lot to be a factor here.

Louisiana Derby (Gr II) $1,000,000 3yo 1 3/16 (100 KYD pts)

1. Triple Espresso - Scratched to run in Jeff Ruby Steaks

2. Hall of Fame - looked like a world beater breaking his maiden on the Lecomte (Gr III) undercard but bombed when wheeled back in the Risen Star (Gr II). Never looked comfortable rating in the slop that day and Asmussen has indicated that he is expecting a more free running ride today. Of course his barnmate is the main speed of the race which could complicate matters and makes me wonder why he hasn’t split his Derby contenders up rather than keep having them face off? His ‘A game’ might be good enough as this is a relatively tepid group but it’s more of a leap of faith than an endorsement.

3. Antiquarian - lightly raced Centennial Farms runner by Preservationist, who was best going 10 furlongs. Nailed on the wire by the highly touted Conquest Warrior in his debut at GP in January, the Pletcher trainee graduated over this surface (though sloppy that day) on the Risen Star undercard, defeating next out winner Cornishman. Paired 7.25 TG figs, figures to get a nice trip under Johnny V and is a serious ‘under the radar’ contender to upset this apple cart.

4. Agate Road - ran on nicely to be second in the Sam Davis (Gr III) after getting way behind early. Quality Road colt is talented but still runs in an erratic fashion despite having plenty of race experience as he makes his 7th career start here. Reminds me of a more advanced Crupi who took a bit longer to figure it out but the potential absence of early pace is concerning despite the added ground. Not saying that he can’t sweep by them all late but I’m skeptical that the race will set up the way it needs to in order to give him that chance. (I did make a wager on him in the Derby Futures as IMO 1 1/4 shouldn’t be an issue for him but I’m wondering if he will earn enough points to get him there)

5. Catching Freedom - lost in the adulation for Sierra Leone’s late run to capture the Risen Star (Gr II) was this son of Constitution’s sneaky good race to be third despite being self-hampered by his habit of not running straight before being put into tight quarters by the winner. He has made slow but steady progress and gives the vibe that one of these days he will put it together, run straight and blow a graded stakes field away. Is that today?

6. Awesome Ruta - decent son of Mendelssohn looks to be a cut below here

7. Honor Marie - The KY Jockey Club (Gr II) winner just got too far behind in his season debut in the Risen Star (Gr II) which likely precipitated the jockey change from regular rider Bejarano to the relatively recent import from the UK, Ben Curtis. Has the talent to beat these but like Agate Road and to an extent, Catching Freedom, might be a bit compromised by a potentially ordinary pace scenario. This is the danger in two race prep campaigns, factors beyond your control can turn these late preps into ‘do or die’ events though I’d guess the ‘last chance for gas’ Lexington Stakes could be on the docket for these runners now six weeks out, if the situation conspires against.

8. Next Level - Vino Rossi colt has consistently shown not to be graded stakes quality since leaving California.

9. Real Men Violin - didn’t get untracked at all in the Risen Star (Gr II) as he just ran around the track when beaten 12 lengths in his return to the races. Perhaps new rider Lanerie will position him closer to the pace and try to get the jump on the closers? As I have said many times before McPeek runners are often the toughest to figure as they can shrug off dull efforts just as easily as repeat them.

10. Common Defense - along that same Ken McPeek theme, this son of Karakontie (Jpn) stalled out in his stakes debut in the Southwest (Gr III) when 5th beaten 17 yet rebounded at 27-1 to be a good 2nd to Timberlake in the Rebel (Gr II) in his next start. Hernandez who is McPeek’s number one guy lands here, he sports a sharp work for this and any further improvement makes him a contender here.

11. Tuscan Gold - beat a soft group of maidens last out at GP, draws outside making ground loss a distinct possibility and needs to improve quite a bit to be a contender here.

12. Track Phantom - didn’t have much of an excuse when run down in the Risen Star (Gr II) after setting a relatively unchallenged early pace. His dam was a really nice filly but strictly a sprinter as is his 4yo brother who is a decent mid-Atlantic allowance horse. Rosario will be gunning from the outside post, he may only get token pressure once again but it’s a fair question to ask if the added ground will be more than he can handle.