Closing Time

Real Writing on Racing 💯

🎪 Sunday was warm and a bit humid but the overcast skies didn’t turn into rain though it’s already been raining for hours. Attendance was posted as 27,434 and handle for the final Sunday of the season was $26,496,411.

⏰ Closing day first post is 12:35. Check for jockey changes as Tyler Gafflione and Joel Rosario who were named on 15 Saratoga mounts combined, are instead riding today at Kentucky Downs.

💰 Check out the Going in Circles Breeders Cup Classic Futures Pool 2 wagering guide Here. Pool closes today at 6:30 eastern. Check your ADW for more information. 💵💵💵

🎪 Two year old NYB maidens going 5.5 on the weeds kicked off the action on the penultimate day of the 2022 Saratoga season. Vacation Dance got the money for Carmouche and John Kimmel, the firster by The Lieutenant rallying from mid-pack to hold off favored Disarmed.

🎪 David Jacobson finally decided on a spot for oft-entered and scratched Greeley and Ben, Sundays 2nd, $40,000 claimer going six furlongs on the dirt. It turned out to be a wise choice as the veteran campaigner showed good speed from the outset, dueling with odds on favorite Happy Farm throughout and grimly holding him off to the wire, a neck the final margin. The win was Jacobson’s first back from his hiatus of a couple years and was Greeley and Ben’s 21st lifetime and 5th of the year in 8 starts. Everyone was claimed in the five horse race except third place finisher Big Engine who loomed mid-stretch but hung late.

🎪 Apprentice rider Jose Gomez took his lumps this meet, as with a really deep jockey colony, live mounts were often difficult to come by. However he showed signs that he has what it takes to make it, including a perfect ride on Forever Dreaming in the third, a rare grass win for Wayne Lukas. Coming into this race, a $32000 claimer for fillies and mares going 8.5 furlongs on the grass, Lukas sported a turf record of 0-55 according to the DRF stats, the dirt to turf angle 0-28. Didn’t matter yesterday though as Forever Dreaming not only won easily but escaped getting claimed as well.

🎪 4th went to Cousteau who held off Critical Threat to get the money in the conditioned $14000 claiming event going 7f on the dirt. Carmouche won his second on the day, Rob Atras trains. Five were claimed out of here but not the winner who can now explore the deep seas of the Belmont at the Big A meet.

🎪 David Donk had a very productive Spa meet and he and Gomez teamed up to take the 5th, a NYB NW1x allowance going 5.5 on the grass with Me ‘n Sap at 11-1. Courageoous Oh La was second for Finger Lakes based Linda Dixon who has sent over live runners this meet. This was the second of three winners on the card for Gomez.

🎪 The Hot Tub Time Machine was fired up once again, landing in Saratoga right before the 6th where Take Charge Brianna rallied from far back, after stumbling coming out of the gate, to take the 7 furlong 2yo filly MSW for Wayne Lukas and Flavian Prat. Vahva looked home free in deep stretch for Cherie Devaux before the winner closed with a rush to nail her right before the wire. Favored first time starter Pure Pauline ran an even fourth.

🎪 Race 8 was a filly NW2x allowance going 6f on the dirt and Paulo Lobo and OXO Equine’s Palm Cottage made every pole a winning one, holding off a late surge by 4-5 favorite Boston Post Road to post the popular victory. The 4yo American Pharoh filly who was coming off a fast score at Ellis Park, broke through the gate before the race, was once again reloaded, set rapid fractions under Johnny Velazquez, who was substituting for the ailing JJ Castellano, opened a clear lead in the stretch and had just enough to make it to the wire. It was the second time in three weeks that a horse who prematurely broke through the gate, won. Look for Palm Cottage in stakes competition, perhaps in Kentucky, in the near future.

🎪 The 10th featured a late scratch of Arisaema, another close finish, a stewards inquiry, a jockeys objection and a shaky DQ. In deep stretch, Succulent and Dylan Davis shifted inward slightly after which Cape Cod Causeway who was between horses, bumped the hind quarters of La Victoria who was coming out a touch. There was no doubt that some jostling occurred, as in most grass races, but it was hard for me to say definitely that the winner caused anyone to lose a placing as there was also contact between the second and third place finishers. I would have voted to leave it alone and let the results stand especially after we have seen far rougher riding routinely ignored by this stand. I actually benefited from the DQ but still believe that it was a shaky call and perhaps both the first and second across the wire should have been taken down if any DQ was to be made. Watch for yourself here.

🏆 The Spinaway (Gr I) first run in 1881, has been the stepping stone to the two year old filly championship for many greats including, Tanya, Maskette, Top Flight, Cicada, Moccasin, Forward Gal, Numbered Account, La Prevoyante, Ruffian, Dearly Precious, Before Dawn, Meadow Star, Flanders, Golden Attraction, Countess Diana, Ashado, Vequist and Echo Zulu. It remains to be seen if Leave No Trace will join that illustrious group, but she is on her way after upending the ancient race late yesterday afternoon at 14-1. Under a heady ride by veteran Jose Lezcano, the daughter of Outwork, stalked the pace set by Naughty Gal, moved to the front turning for home and proved best under steady handling. She was a bargain buy at the Timonium mid-Atlantic yearling sale, selling for $40,000 to WellSpring stables and trainer Phil Serpe who had an excellent meet (15-6-1-1). Favorite Wonder Wheel stalked the pace while 3/4 wide, made a move toward the winner mid-stretch while hanging on wrong lead, just couldn’t reach her and checked in second best. Kaling made a menacing run up the inside passing the quarter pole but couldn’t sustain her rally. American Rockette literally tried to bolt to the outside fence coming out of the gate, was far behind early and put in a huge run to be fourth, only beaten 3 1/4. It’s hard to describe how far to the right she broke from the starting gate post 10, so we will provide a picture to better tell that story. American Rockette is circled on the left side of the photo.

☔️ Kentucky Downs is now scheduled to run yesterday’s card today. The 11 races are headed by the $750,000 Dueling Grounds Derby (Gr III) for 3yo’s going 1 5/16th over a ‘sure to be wet’ grass course. Also at that same distance the Dueling Ground Oaks (listed) for 3yo fillies is the co-feature. If the races finally go off, beware Always Above in the Derby as he has quietly progressed into one of the faster 3yo grass runners and the distance should be well within his scope, 15-1 does nothing but add to the allure. On the fillies side, I don’t have a price play but New Years Eve is just better than those, has handled softer ground before, exists two tough races where she was completely pace compromised and should love the long stretch run.

🏅 Tuesday is Virginia Derby day at Colonial Downs and they have a great card with full, competitive fields and six stakes including the headliner which has 11 entered. Familiar names on the card, Rosario, Ortiz and Ortiz, Franco, Leparoux, Motion, Stidham, Brown, Maker, McGaughey, McPeek, Falcone, Thomas, Devaux, Trombetta, Schoenthal, Donk, Asmussen, Walsh, Clement as well as the mid-Atlantic usual suspects. The great Jason Beem calls all the action starting at 1:45 eastern tomorrow.

❤️❤️❤️ Just wanted to thank everyone who read this years blog, especially those who signed up for a free subscription, as it was sort of a last minute idea that Barry Spears, my partner on the Big Monday show came up with. The number of daily downloads far exceeded our wildest expectations and I hope that everyone sincerely enjoyed it. While we won’t be posting stuff daily (Saratoga is special), we will continue to write stories and preview big race days along with a couple of other new projects in the works. Your feedback was great, always welcomed and don’t stop now! Loved meeting many new friends at the races, at its best, racing is a social game. Thank you all again for supporting us and please don’t be afraid to spread the word and remember the BIG MONDAY show airs every Monday night/Tuesday morning, we don’t take any weeks off!! Hope everyone has a great holiday and as the legend Harvey Pack would always end his show…”May the horse be with you!”

Day 40 (zero days to go)

Hopeful Stakes Gr I $300,000 7 furlongs 2yo

1. Western Ghent - broke his maiden 11 days ago for maiden 75000 and frankly isn’t good enough (TG 18 top) to rev up the Hot Tub Time Machine one more time this meet.

2. Forte - impressive Belmont maiden winner disappointed when 3-2 favorite in opening weekend Sanford. That day got shuffled back early and simply passed tired ones to run 4th. Can improve off that effort in small field with extra furlong to work with.

3. Bourbon Bash - flashed good early speed both Spa starts, ran them off their feet in last when breaking maiden and earning much improved TG fig of 9 however that number isn’t nearly fast to beat the top ones here. Likely pacesetter for new rider to be named.

4. Gulfport - early season Kentucky sensation was upended by another bluegrass state invader, Damon’s Mound, when second in the Saratoga Special (Gr II). In that race, he encountered trouble on the turn and was forced to steady which sealed his fate as his rival opened up a long lead and coasted from there. Prat replaces Rosario and he looms the one to beat in this short field at a short price. Mud is of course an X factor but his pedigree says no problem.

5. Mo Strike - forced pace in the Sanford (Gr II) before drawing away in the lane. Ran far faster than his debut which makes one wonder if he can repeat that effort again? Has had 51 days off since that impressive score, can he get the jump on Gulfport or will he be chasing him?

6. Blazing Sevens - visually impressive maiden win though raw time was slow. This was earlier in the meet when the main track was playing slower but there is a big discrepancy between Beyer which has the race fast 85 and TG which decidedly does not (13.5). Figures to get decent trip stalking from outside but also figures to be overbet as well.

Bernard Baruch H. Gr III $200,000 8.5f Inner Turf

1. Ocala Dream - comes into this off of two no impact performances in allowances after upsetting the state bred Kingston in May. Just doesn’t seem good enough and has never hit the board in three Spa tries. Only dirt try was abysmal.

2. Mouillage (Fr) - made stateside debut in March, just missing against Mira Mission in the Canadian Turf (Gr III) at Gulfstream. Shows good European form prior to that though not at group level. Has shown excellent soft track form like most French horses do and is a big player in here with Irad.

3. Dynadrive - will be odds on if race is taken off the grass, shows excellent off track form including a win in the slop in an off the turf race last summer. Turf form is sharp too as he rallied from way back up the inside to win the money in the ®️ Lure stakes month ago at this distance though his grass TG are slower than par in this field. IMO have to respect off turf, probably fade on it.

4. Winter’s Back - hasn’t been seen since July of 2021 when chasing pace before backing up when going 11 furlongs in the United Nations at Monmouth on Haskell day. Lightly raced five year old has speed and shows excellent form over a less than firm course. A point or two slower on figs than the contenders, he can counter that by setting the pace and saving ground. No idea if he’d run off the grass but guessing no.

5. City Man - rallied to score opening weekend in the Forbidden Apple (Gr III) though form had been a little dull prior to that. Does possess a bit of tactical speed which might be important especially if the course is soggy and the pace really slow though his last race over a yielding track was poor. Has won on the dirt before so would be a factor if it comes off. Has done well at Spa over the years but might be overbet here.

6. Emaraaty (GB) - 4th in the 2019 Baruch, has been steady allowance performer but hasn’t been up to stakes level competition the two times he tried in the US. Has excellent Spa record (4-3-0-0) and did win earlier in the meet here. Perhaps soft turf won’t matter but can’t say for sure but he is a player if it stays on and guessing will scratch if it comes off.