Clarity or Chaos?
Real Writing on Racing 💯
One of the unique aspects of growing up in New York is the exposure to tabloid newspapers like the NY Post or Daily News, with their shock value headlines that ran the gamut from sublime to hilarious. When I sit down to write a Going in Circles Digest, the first thing I do is try to come up with a catchy headline that captures the theme of the week. Today’s “Clarity or Chaos” was intended to be directed toward the two important 100 point Kentucky Derby preps held this weekend, the Florida and Arkansas Derbies. I mean what sort of chaos ensues at the head of the Kentucky Derby class if Forte loses today? Yet I smirked and rolled my eyes thinking that those three words sadly encapsulate so many racing topics of the day.
My natural inclination for pessimism likely is a reflection, again, of growing up in New York and then spending 20 years as a trainer, easily the most cynical group of optimistic people on Earth. That said, a lifetime of involvement in the racing business in various other capacities has left me with a questioning demeanor towards most horse racing business related items. Over the last three decades most racing maneuvers, strategies, themes, ideas, trends, and every other machination have failed racing. What we have today in 2023 is an industry that can barely justify itself as a sport, a result of varying degrees of indifference, greed, stupidity and deception from ALL the industry groups. Reading vapid op-ed pieces and letters to the editors between various warring factions is another distressing reminder that we are rudderless, regulation isn’t a business strategy and those rocks that this ship is steaming towards are real.
That said, the sausage making behind the scenes in most industries isn’t pretty either and few can match the highest of highs that peak thoroughbred racing can produce. We do have some excellent racing this weekend…so let’s enjoy that! The freakin’ Kentucky Derby is only a few weeks away! Let’s go!!!
🗽 The end of an era…the most popular man in racing retires. Read about Sonny Taylor’s amazing life in racing Here
💻 Fasig Tipton’s April Digital Auction is now live and open for bidding. Check it out here as these online sales is will be a growing segment moving forward
🌽 Prairie Meadows opens up on May 12 with a birthday celebration for yours truly as racing secretary Stu Slagle and track announcer Bobby Neuman sing all the hits with a special raceday Karaoke 🎤! Actually I made that up though it’s a good idea Prairie Meadows marketing people! The Midwestern staple does indeed kick off their racing season that day. Hopefully Tyler’s Tribe is back in action this summer and perhaps he should remain safely inside of the Hawkeye state’s border from now on.
Florida Derby (Gr I) $1,000,000 9f 3yo (100 KD pts to winner)
Jungfrau - Arrogate colt bombed in the Withers (Gr III) when rank early and just stopped running and wasn’t persevered with going into the far turn. Shipped back to Florida, it’s interesting he lands here off that effort with Paco, a rider Mott rarely uses. He hasn’t run fast in any of his races (Top TG is 10.5) and not sure how he will react to being trapped down on inside in bulky field. However this is also a group loaded with question marks, he is bred to handle the 9 furlongs and I expect he will be forwardly placed if he breaks well and….you’ll see as we go through the others…
West Coast Cowboy - I have seen TG figs for Derby preps for a long time and I don’t ever recall a major 3yo prep have a horse hit the board with a slower number that the 13 this guy earned in the Holy Bull. The good news is he should improve and might get a nice ground saving trip again (the rail may not have been great that day), the bad news is that he is running 13 TG’s.
Shaq Diesel - not sure why a 3yo based at Tampa Bay Downs skipped both of local Kentucky Derby preps that featured modestly talented fields to ship to New Orleans to be 184-1? Same theory in effect here though less diesel fuel will be required. Interesting speed fig trivia - His TG 12.75 earned when beaten 16 with a mostly ground saving trip in the Risen Star (Gr II) was a tick faster than West Coast Cowboy got for being 3rd beaten 3 with a mostly ground saving trip in the Holy Bull (Gr III).
Mage - impressive maiden breaker first time out on the Pegasus undercard, got a tough trip when stretched out to 8.5 furlongs in the Fountain of Youth (Gr II). From post 7 in his latest, he got shuffled back in the first turn and was forced to be 4 wide where he remained throughout. What I liked about his race that day was despite his lack of seasoning and the ground loss, he didn’t fold up in the short stretch, even when forced to steady off of the heels of Rocket Can as Forte went by. Without that slight mishap, I believe he would have nailed Cyclone Mischief who had a far softer trip. Draws well, adds Saez and with better luck may be able to improve again (TG 5 in last) and perhaps be the only serious threat to the champ.
Mr Peeks - California Chrome colt changed hands in private purchase since his last, a runner up in a MSW to a 5yo Uncle Mo gelding named A La Carte who went off 1-5. Has shown high speed before fading in both career starts at 6 furlongs and appears to be entered as a pacemaker for stablemate Nautical Star, who himself is listed at 30-1 on the morning line. He has actual run respectable TG (10.5 then 7.25) but 9 furlongs is a long ways to stretch out from 6f.
Nautical Star - another private purchase by C2 Racing Stable/Saffie Joesph, this one shipping in from Oaklawn where he broke his maiden as a deep closer going 6f earlier in March. He holds the distinction of being the only foal in the 2020 crop from his sire, Dixie Chatter. Paired 11.5 TG. Not much else to say.
Il Miracolo - as I said in the preview of both the Holy Bull (Gr III) and the Fountain of Youth (Gr II)…it will be.
Mr. Ripple - anyone who had two “Mr.” horses on your Florida Derby bingo card go ahead and cash. Of the Joseph quartet, he is the only one that has raced remotely well enough to consider as anything but a ‘Hail Mary’ type. Not that his running line screams contender, but he has run decent at the distance, has recorded some single digit TG’s (admittedly a very low hurdle to clear) and for better or worse has tactical speed, like many of others in here. Do I like him in this spot? No but improvement that gets him in the ‘on the board mix’ needs to be a lot slighter than most of the rest.
Cyclone Mischief - gunned to the lead from an outside post, the Into Mischief colt got a nice front running trip with just moderate pressure till the far turn and tired late despite the short stretch being in use. Obviously a different trip looms as it’s doubtful that they try to clear all the others with speed drawn inside. If he can’t finish up better saving ground, it’s difficult to imagine the extra ground loss as well as the added distance will be a positive. Pat Day Mile (Gr II) on Derby Day looms
Fort Bragg - was scratched out of the Sunland Park Derby (Gr III) which seemed like a reasonable decision at the time as a runner up finish here seemed more likely than a win in New Mexico. Then they ran the race. Rank outsider and non-Triple Crown nominee (he was supplemented this week) Wild on Ice stalked the leaders and trudged away late, earning his way into the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby if they so choose. He had been getting trounced on a regular basis, his previous 2 races he ran TG of 23 and 32 (😳) and the fig from Sunday wasn’t quite that glacial but it wasn’t good (Beyer was 77). While it’s pure speculation to know how Ft Bragg would have fared, it’s difficult to imagine that he wouldn’t have won. Drawing outside means send hard from the gate and try to get a stalking trip outside what figures to be a swift pace or break and hope that Rosario can work something out. Either way neither of his last two were very good and I keep coming back to his dam who was a precocious turf sprinter. This is a very soft group and he is faster than most but I won’t be using him.
Forte - got a dream trip in his return to the races and when he switched leads at the top of the stretch, Irad found the acceleration was still as good as it was as a 2 year old. This obviously isn’t an ideal post and he will almost assuredly lose ground but will it matter? He has a significant advantage in speed figs and credentials, like as big as you’d ever see in a late season Derby prep but this is a bulky group and many of them figure to be just getting in the way by the far turn (though the pace figures to be solid) and there is always danger in that. He doesn’t need to win and obviously the connections don’t want to lose but the goal is May 7th not April 1st. I’m babbling at this point and I will leave you with this, he isn’t a mortal lock because of the uncertainty of his trip but I have no idea how to play to beat him other than just tossing him and hoping for insurmountable traffic issues. Probably wins by 4.
Dubyuhnell - if it wasn’t for bad luck as a 3yo, this Good Magic colt wouldn’t have any luck at all. The Sam Davis was a debacle as he found trouble multiple times before he got to the first turn and essentially never got untracked. Post 12 is a problem as he isn’t fast enough to clear but he also wasn’t exactly successful taking a whole lot of dirt. His big win was the Remsen over a sloppy Aqueduct track where he stalked a legit but camera shy Arctic Arrogance, with no one else in the field really being involved. It’s very hard to see a trip that will work well for him that doesn’t involve being super wide.
Arkansas Derby (Gr I) $1,250,000 9f 3yo (100 KD points to winner)
Bourbon Bash - got hung wide in first turn of the Rebel (Gr II) and then found trouble and caused trouble in the stretch. Probably a better race than it looks on paper, big rider change to Reylu and shouldn’t be wide early. Lukas is still one of the hardest trainers to figure out and this horse isn’t much different. Might not be good enough to win but I wouldn’t talk you out of using him underneath in verticals.
Interlock Empire - typical McPeek horse, took a few to get untracked, doesn’t have early speed, picks them up late. Will likely be way behind early and with the 21 day turnaround, we are guessing he won’t take another needed leap forward.
Harlocap - the first of the Baffert refuges to leave the home base, he bombed in the Risen Star (Gr II) after contesting a quick pace. This spot doesn’t have as many of those early pace types and there is a chance he has the lead in 47.2 or something similar. The issue is that he might not be good enough anyway.
Two Eagles Road - everyone will see Disarm in the runner up spot last time and probably overrate this guys chances here. Disarm hadn’t run since Saratoga prior to that race and simply got too far behind as Two Eagles Road was carving out a comfortable lead going a mile. The pedigree doesn’t scream 9f and the pace figures to be stronger. Toss 32% trainers at your own risk but it feels like this one is a notch below the best here
Airtime - appears to have been a good claim but this isn’t a claiming race.
Angel of Empire - benefitted from brilliant ride by Luis Saez in the Risen Star and son of Classic Empire picked a great time to improve ALOT (TG 11.25 to 9.25 to 2.5). However, like the horse he beat in there, Sun Thunder going into last week’s Louisana Derby (had a very similar rapid ascension pattern) the odds of regression are stronger than any other outcome. The positive is that unlike that race at the FG last week, the Arkansas Derby previews like the early pace will be solid which helps aid Angel of Empire’s late closing style. Saez stayed in Florida and Flavian Prat picked up the mount though he is also the rider of Kingsbarns. I am leaning against though a fortunate trip and quick early pace might aid him in overcoming the obstacles.
Rocket Can - exits the soft south Florida Derby trail scene as the clear second best participant. I thought Mott made an interesting choice coming to Hot Springs to face a far deeper field though obviously he is avoiding the 1000 pound gorilla (Forte). On TG he finally broke through the 8 level last time recording a 4 but not all that visually impressive grinding down a weakening Cyclone Mischief to be second in the Fountain of Youth (Gr II). Matching or exceeding that fig is entirely possible, he has enough tactical speed to find a good position and has to be respected as a contender.
Reincarnate - in my view the 4.25 TG he earned in the Rebel was far more impressive than Rocket Can’s 4 in the FoY. Catching a sloppy track for Southern California based horses is a greater unknown than in the past as they aren’t even allowed to train over those surfaces let alone race. So when Reincarnate didn’t show speed out of the gate as he had in his prior race, a game wire to wire win in the Sham, perhaps the wet surface played a role? He was mired down inside at the back of the pack going down the backside and Johnny V had him in a drive early just to not fall too far back. He started to catch the field on the far turn and as he was gathering momentum, he got put in tight a couple times in the early stretch including when runner up and deep closer Red Route One brushed him while making his late run. Reincarnate didn’t quit though, he kept coming and was gaining on the top two at the wire despite the eventful trip. It was a slight regression in TG (from 2.75 to 4.25) but that is immaterial as I expect with a more reasonable trip he can break through his prior top which makes him a major threat. The track should be fast based on the current Hot Springs weather report which won’t hurt either.
King Russell - we always root for Ron Moquett but rooting is far as we can go with this recent maiden breaker who hasn’t yet demonstrated an ability to keep up with this caliber.
Red Route One - the deepest of deep closers was the runner up in the Southwest (Gr III) and Rebel (Gr II), parlaying a fast pace, a sloppy track and some good fortune with traffic or lack of it. Adds blinkers and for most you’d like this move especially looking at Asmussen’s stats when making that equipment change. However for deep, one run closers trying to make them sit closer to the early leaders sometimes takes away from their powerful late run. The toughest thing about horses that prefer this style of running is that they need help with a swift pace and once they get to rolling, a clear path. In this race neither of those two items are assured and wagering on horses that will be 20 lengths behind halfway through the race can make you question your sanity…though it is always something to see them flying down the center of the track late.
Kolomio - we have sung the praises of trainer Desormeaux before though this is a bizarre entry into the Arkansas Derby. This guy has been toiling in Southern California grass races and his only two dirt starts were no factor efforts sprinting last summer. Disappointed that Confidence Game isn’t in here as he is being “trained up” to the Kentucky Derby which greatly diminishes his chances of actually winning the Kentucky Derby. As for Kolomio…I really have no idea what to even say about him except he should be able to handle dirt, I just don’t know if he is a stakes level performer as there is no evidence to support that….yet.
Thoughts on some other stakes today:
Miracle is not a clever selection but she looks to be a solid choice in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (Gr II) with Infinite Diamond the main danger. I’d check out Grand Love in the Fantasy (Gr III) at anything close to the morning line of 8-1, expect her to move forward off her season debut with She’s Lookin Lucky as the one to beat. If Wet Paint runs us down, so be it. There are several in the Hot Springs stakes going a mile on the Arkansas Derby undercard that would have been a solid second choice in the Florida Derby. Eyeing Clover returns after getting caught up in the supersonic early pace of the Gotham (Gr III) though he isn’t likely to be much of a price. Interesting to see McPeek cut Smile Happy back in distance to a mile in the Oaklawn Mile (Gr III) though I might take a flyer in there with Necker Island getting back to his best distance, hoping that Hopper doesn’t shake loose on the lead. Dunedin (winter home of the Toronto Blue Jays) looks solid in the Cutler Bay at GP at close to the 5-1 ML, though Anglophile has the look of a very live longshot if Castellano can work out a decent trip from the outside post. If Abaan is scratched in the Pan American (Gr II) as rumored, I’d take a little shot with Ry’s the Guy second off of a long layoff and hope Leparoux shows a little aggression about going to the lead in a totally paceless event on paper
This is the Arkansas Derby broadcast from 1987 with a bunch of other races including the Wood with Gulch and Gone West and the Ashland from Keeneland. Chris Lincoln was great as the host!