Casual Field Size Friday
Real Writing on Racing 💯
“Change is inevitable, growth is optional” – John C. Maxwell
If a quote exists that better describes the last few years of thoroughbred racing, I have yet to stumble upon it. In American racing, the more things change, the more some strive to ignore those changes while opposing factions fall all over themselves to shill it. There is plenty of irony to be found when many who yearn to live in the past tend to only recall their own warped view of history, yet their counterparts on the other side of the fence lack real vision as to how damaging policies they support can be in the future. Centrists exist but many are simply too indolent to educate themselves beyond what they choose to want to hear. When finally realizing that just riding the tide has led to them to support philosophical leanings that are diametrically opposed to their own best interests, they hastily pick a side at long last, however on issues like lasix or HISA, it’s usually too late.
That said another phenomenon that occurs with increasing regularity on horseracing social media and other racing community outlets is the odd defense of issues that clearly aren’t all that defendable. Now those who are employed by tracks or other industry organizations tend to get a pass with a side of eye-roll from me because of the ludicrously sensitive environments that many have to work within. What is really strange though is when bettors start to throw shade at other bettors for taking a perfectly logical stance about takeout, steward decisions or field size issues which are all areas that 2022 racing struggles with.
For example, takeout is too high. Period. You can give me whatever list of reasons that the takeout on some particular bet, at some particular track isn’t too high but you’d usually just be repeating old, tired excuses. This IS a shrinking game regardless of what CAW fueled handle gains get lobbed out as though they are fact grenades, and don’t even get me started on how some tracks have deceptively changed the definition of handle without, of course, telling anyone. Nothing should be sacred (well the Triple Crown should be and naturally there are many that foolishly clamor to ruin, oops… I mean change that too) and as greedy as the commercial sports books are proving to be, racing has an opportunity to actually gain an advantage by reducing takeout and making a real attempt at growing the game on the wagering side. Yet some in the Twitter-verse, perhaps they are just seeking attention by being contrary (or they are auditioning for an industry position), will try to convince the masses that you are being a “crybaby” or “Debbie downer” for not towing the industry line that 24% takeout on pick 3’s is just peachy. One of the few lessons I remember from high school is the power of compounding interest, takeout is compounding interest in reverse.
I realize that I’m more likely to get a mount in next year’s Kentucky Derby than for the big tracks to adopt a slashing takeout philosophy but that doesn’t mean it is wrong.
Bed O’ Roses 🌹 Gr I $300000 7 furlongs
Obligatory - When last seen five weeks ago at Churchill she was putting in a strong rally from the back of the pack to capture the Derby City Distaff (Gr. I) overcoming the weight of the Going in Circles money that she also carried along with 123 pounds including jockey Jose Ortiz. One of the worst things about these short fields is that fillies like this are at a huge disadvantage due to the atypical nature of a four horse field. They simply aren’t truly run races and the pace advantage of her rivals gives this Curlin filly a real uphill climb here.
Glass Ceiling - Trainer Charlie Baker has done a great job with this Constitution mare since claiming her from the ‘eye chart guy’ Mertkan Kantarmaci last Spring. She won her 4th in a row last out 62 days ago at Aqueduct in the Distaff Hdcp (Gr. III) earning a minus 1.5 TG which was a new lifetime top by far. Can she sit right off of Bella Sophia’s flank and outrun her in the lane? Can she replicate that last number? I don’t really have a strong opinion either way but she does look like the best chance of beating the favorite though with this small of a field you aren’t getting much of a price.
Bella Sophia - She has the most early speed in this quartet and as such holds a tactical advantage over the others. Plus she is really good as evidenced by her game performance in her four year old debut where she out gamed the classy Frank’s Rockette in the Vagrancy (Gr III) 27 days ago at Belmont. She did run a lifetime top of minus 1 TG and gives a few pounds to the field as the 124 pound high weight. Most likely winner but nothing to get excited about.
Easy to Bless - Another former claiming horse whose unheralded trainer, Jimmy Ferraro, has done a bang-up job with. She exits a starter handicap event that she won over a sloppy track at Belmont for her third win of 2022 but she is clearly a cut below the others in here.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Bella Sophia
Belmont Gold Cup 🏆 Gr II $400000 2 miles turf
Loft (Ger) - Ships in from Germany where he just knocked off a 2 mile grade II race in his 4 year old debut. TG gave him a 5 for that race, a slight improvement over the series of 6’s that he got in the fall of his 3 year old campaign. The legendary German rider Andreas Starke flys in to take the assignment. He is a big player here
Abaan - Pletcher trainee ran well in turf marathons this winter at Gulfstream, didn’t fire after leading through soft fractions in short field Man O’ War. Did go wire to window in 2 mile HA Jerkens on Christmas Eve at GP but tough to play at short price here.
British Royalty - Relatively lightly raced Ontario-bred gelding by English Channel did win a leg of the Canadian Triple Crown last fall going 12 furlongs but needs to run lifetime best in here.
Outbox (GB) - Veteran overseas campaigner won a grade 1 race in Qatar this spring and was a bang up third right behind the BC Turf winner Yibir two back at Newberry in the UK. Top English rider Hollie Doyle sees fit to travel to take the riding assignment on the 7 year old Frankel gelding for Archie Watson, no relation to Deshaun. TG gave him a 3.5 and 3.75 for his good races this year which make him a major player.
Strong Tide - will be overlooked by most but he isn’t without a prayer in this odd collection of mostly wanna-be marathoners. He has some decent races and on the odd chance that it’s rained off onto the main track he would be the one to beat.
Cibolian - still eligible for nw2x allowance race, main strength is Prat taking the reins.
Nova Sol (Brz) - ran a decent third in Pan American at GP back on Florida Derby day but bombed in the Dinner Party (Gr II) and looks like the connections are just throwing you know what against the wall hoping it can stick going 2 miles.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Loft
True North Gr II $300000 6.5 Furlongs
Mr Phil - scratched from Maryland Sprint Championship (which he probably would have won) on the Preakness undercard to score in Belmont allowance. Has had the magic wand applied since the claim with three straight 1.5 TG’s but draws inside Jackie’s Warrior and outside of a kamikaze mission will most likely be chasing to no avail.
War Tocsin - Uriah to the rescue, making field size in graded stakes at NYRA tracks barely bearable once again! He really has no shot but at least this race has six.
Jackie’s Warrior - needs no introduction. After clearly needing a race at OP when narrowly beating decent group after having post-Breeders Cup Sprint knee surgery, he crushed a stronger bunch than this in the CD Stakes (Gr I) getting back to his lifetime top of minus 2.75 TG. Might be pressed harder in the early stages than in Louisville where he was gifted the lead but at 6.5 furlongs he will still be very tough to catch at very low price. Does give the field 6 pounds but to be fair there are no other stakes winners in here and he would probably give even more weight under handicap conditions.
Baby Yoda - been doing some tune up work in the starter allowance ranks where he is eligible because he ran for maiden 10k first time out. Ran a minus 1.25 last out at Churchill but last time he ran a number in that super fast range he bounced to the moon.
Night Time - he doesn’t run often, he hadn’t won since pandemic Saratoga 2020 before scoring in an off the turf event at Churchill 38 days ago. Romans will take a shot in graded stakes but hasn’t won one in a very long time. He isn’t a bad horse though and perhaps if Castellano plays his cards right he can take back a bit, let the speed duel and chasers burn themselves out and just maybe hit the board by passing a few late.
Sound Money - uncharacteristic speed in the Westchester in his last, Irad likely takes hold early and tries to run down Jackie’s Warrior late. I don’t think he will but that’s probably the plan. Might complete filthy cheap exacta.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Jackie’s Warrior
New York Gr I $750000 10 furlongs Inner Turf
Flighty Lady (Ire) - By far the weakest of the four-pronged Peter Brant/Chad Brown quartet, she basically has little chance.
Roughir (Fr) Very expensive purchase paid immediate dividends with strong showing in the Beaugay in initial start of 2022. Earned a 2.75 TG which is very solid number for fillies on the grass going long. Prat took off her undefeated barnmate Bleecker Street to stick with this French filly. Strictly the one to beat.
Virginia Joy (Ger) - she is 2 for 2 in 2022 after three “just ok” starts last summer after being imported from Germany. Relished the ludicrously soft turf conditions in the Sheepshead Bay where she went wire to wire, setting beyond glacial fractions (they had to thaw ❄️ the field out down the backside) before drawing off to win by an astounding 14 lengths. She jumped to a 2 on TG in that soggy start but it’s unlikely that she can duplicate that effort on a track that is quite a bit more firm.
Core Values - kudos to the connections for taking a shot in here but she has never run a single race remotely good enough to beat these.
Bleecker Street - talented Quality Road filly barely kept her undefeated record (6 for 6) alive in the Modesty at Churchill on the Derby undercard, rallying between fillies to just get to the wire first. She is a little bit slower (4.25 TG) than Roughir and Prat jumps off but if you are looking for an alternative to the favorite, she is a pretty solid second choice
Lovely Lucky - she has been terrible in her two 2022 starts though both coming on softer than firm courses.
Family Way - trainer Walsh has been on a roll in graded stakes lately and this filly isn’t without a chance but she needs a lot to go right for her and a lot to go wrong with her chief rivals.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Virginia Joy
Intercontinental Gr III $200000 6 Furlongs Turf
Admittedly turf sprints aren’t a strength of ours but this race is a great example why they have become so popular with both horsemen and bettors. We have a full field of thirteen fillies and mares and almost every one of them has some sort of legitimate chance to get on the board in here. They have come from many different races, two out of the License Fee and two out of the Giant’s Causeway at Keeneland, otherwise the other nine all prepped for this in different races. Some are transferring over from dirt, some from synthetic, some cutting back in distance, some stretching out (slightly). In a weekend where the theme seems to be short fields in graded stakes is depressing (amazingly some insist it’s just fine) the two graded turf sprints stakes both have 13 horse fields. That said I’m gonna try to work Miss J McKay and Robin Sparkles onto my tickets in some fashion. Both have run fast enough before, both have won at Belmont going 6f and we are getting Luis Saez and Joel Rosario which are both very good in these type of races.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Nevisian Surprise
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