Breeders Cup Preview weekend #1
Real Writing on Racing 💯
Lots of excellent graded stakes action this weekend, though to be frank, some disappointing fields also. Also on tap is the Prix De L’ Arc De Triomphe (Group I) and the strong supporting stakes on the undercard, usually good for a couple of BC contenders, from Longchamp Sunday morning. We can’t preview them all and some like the Woodward from Belmont at Aqueduct where Life is Good is a 1-9 morning line favorite, will get a brief snippet only. However we will have opinions on many of the last stepping stone races before the November 5-6 Breeders Cup events.
🙏🏻 for the people in the path of Hurricane Ian hurricane 🌀, especially those in the Ft Myers area that saw almost complete devastation in some sections. Our guy Barry is in Daytona Beach which took a hit and remains without power, currently the best estimate of him getting service back is October 5 😳
📰 Look for a piece from us tomorrow! You won’t want to miss it!
BAX Preps:
Woodward Stakes Grade I $500,000 1 1/8 dirt 3&up
The Woodward (Gr I) is a tradition laden race that has been won by some of the all-time greats of the game including Sword Dancer, Kelso, Forego, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Slew O’ Gold, Easy Goer, Holy Bull, Cigar, Skip Away, Ghostzapper, the filly Rachel Alexandra and recently Gun Runner. Two famous Woodward’s are Spectacular Bid’s walkover in 1980 and Secretariat’s defeat (to Prove Out) in the 1973 version. This years edition will probably only be remembered if 1-9 morning line favorite Life is Good loses. The four lining up to face him aren’t nearly in his class and I’d be surprised if Thomas Shelby runs. The BAQ track has been not been playing well for speed horses though with the rain and presence of a high profile speed horse, I’d expect that factor to be mitigated today. It’s difficult to choose between the three remaining contenders as to who will run second (assuming Life is Good waltzes around the track on an uncontested lead). Informative raced great last time out but has always reacted in the past off of big efforts. Law Professor is the type I hate to depend on at a short number, coming out of a grass race at Kentucky Downs and a non-effort back in the spring before that. His new trainer does well at Aqueduct which is a plus and he is probably the most likely runner up here at a super short exacta payoff which is just plain unappealing. Keepmeinmind has never run fast enough and was just fair last out, also makes his Aqueduct debut for Life is Good’s trainer.
Miss Grillo Grade II $200,000 1 1/16 turf 2yo fillies
The Miss Grillo (Gr II) is a Breeders Cup Juvinile Filly turf “win and your in” race which came up with a disappointingly small field. The race is essentially an allowance race with five maiden breakers as well as PG Johnson winner Be Your Best (Ire), comprising the compact group. It’s also a race that is devoid of pace, none of the fillies has been all that close to the early lead in any of their races. Be Your Best (Ire) looked good winning her debut and then snuck up the inside in the Johnson at Saratoga and is a big player in the group however she has had some gate issues and her best figs are about the same as the main contenders ran in their latest. Can she win? Of course. Is she a good play at a short price? Probably not. Free Look will get plenty of action, she had a less than ideal trip when third to Be Your Best (Ire) first time out from post 10 and improved some when breaking her maiden next start. But she isn’t really any faster than the other contenders, got a perfect trip in latest and the connections always seem to get overbet so basically same advice as the favorite. Alluring Angel was a solid second last out at Kentucky Downs in Untappable Stakes when she hopped at the start, got caught wider than the winner and might have won had crop restrictions not been in place as she was responding when jock reached the limit. She has run 8’s on TG which makes her fastest in field but the knock is the wheel back in 18 days after shipping from Saratoga to Kentucky Downs back to Saratoga and now to Ozone Park. I think she can win though and I like her far more at 9-2 than the two favs at 8-5 or less. Georgees Spirit seems more inclined to sprint though she did close stoutly to break her maiden in last and may actually set the pace in here. Im Just Kidding has done nothing wrong but statebred looks a notch slower than the rest. Pleasant Passage skimmed the hedge throughout in her only start, a win where she arguably could have been the 4th best filly in the group, needs to be much better. The Euros aren’t going to be intimidated by anyone coming out of this bunch though it will be run over a rain soaked course that should be relatively Euro-like.
Belmont Turf Sprint Grade III $200,000 6f outer turf 3&up
A BC Turf Sprint ‘win and your in’ race is a real crapshoot as virtually everyone seems to have some sort of fighting chance and will be contested over a course that will have plenty of give in it. I’m taking a flyer on Value Proposition (GB) who will be among the longest prices on the board. He was purchased out of the Fasig Tipton racing age sale in early July for $130k and seems to have been pointed to this race. I have no clue about the connections but this was a pretty good horse for a long time that ran many numbers good enough to beat this group, albeit with Chad Brown training. He will probably be in the 30-1 range and that’s a good enough price for me.
Champagne Grade I $500,000 1 mile dirt 2yo’s
Gulfport showed up at Saratoga among whispers that a huge stallion deal for his post racing rights had already been done, some believing that he was the ‘next big thing’ after destroying a couple fields at Churchill this spring. Well post-Spa the Uncle Mo colt shows up in the Champagne, a bit humbled but also a more seasoned vet, IMO the horse to beat today with an outside stalking trip under new rider Jose Ortiz. I’m fading the KY shipper Top Recruit, who gets Irad after beating Curly Jack in Ellis Park Juvy. Curly Jack returned to win the Iroquois but that was with a perfect trip behind a senseless speed duel between the two favorites in that race, Damon’s Mound and Echo Again. Impressive maiden winners Verifying and Champions Dream both ran decent but not really fast numbers in their first starts, NYB Andiamo A Firenze hasn’t run near fast enough in three starts and either has Blazing Sevens who could use an intense speed battle/fade by the contenders to pick up the pieces.
Churchill Preps:
Ack Ack Grade III $300,000 1 mile dirt 3&up
If this race (a ‘Win and your in’ for the BC dirt mile) was run in the Spring, Speakers Corner might have scared away about half of the others entered here. Prior to being humbled by Flightline and Life is Good and then clunking up 4th at Del Mar at 6-5, Speakers Corner was on a tear. However he hasn’t been in great form and draws the rail which will force Junior Alvarado’s hand as he almost assuredly will go to the lead. How much pressure will be applied is the question? Fulsome has slooooooowly grinded down to good figures for older horses and is a potential upsetter though his price won’t be that exciting. Untreated finally gets back to a one turn mile which might be what he is best at though hoping his speed isn’t dulled from running longer distances, cutting back from 1 1/4. Injunction has made steady progress for my friends Nick and Carlo Vaccarezza, now running numbers just on the cusp of being good enough here. He does have tactical speed which may prove to be important as few others do. Was no match for Speakers Corner back in March but the two have followed different paths since then. Worth a stab at double-digit odds. Twilight Blue is another that isn’t nearly as good as an in-form Speaker’s Corner but has run good enough to beat the rest and can win if the favorite doesn’t fire his best shot
Lukas Classic Grade II $500,000 1 1/8 dirt 3&up
King Fury - has only run fast enough to be competitive with this group once, though it was over this surface last fall. Needs duel and pace collapse but is he even a better closer than the Derby winner?
Art Collector - Looms as the main speed under Luis Saez, though Hot Rod Charlie won’t be far away. The question is when does he face pressure, will he get a breather on the front end or will Gafflione on HRC hound him, can he face early pressure and finish up enough to beat the closers? Has had two relatively soft trips with easy wins since returning from a no show in Saudi…I will likely being playing against here.
Happy Saver - Ryan Smith’s favorite horse. He is nothing if not consistent, with an 11-5-5-1 record to prove it. Gets class relief as there are no Flightline’s or Life is Good’s here to mess with. Figures to get the first run at Art Collector and Hot Rod Charlie at the quarter pole and might be good enough to get past them.
Rich Strike - it will be intensely annoying to hear the Rich Strike stans if he were to make a huge, Derby-like run to sweep past them all and upset this race. His best hope is for a protracted speed duel between Art Collector, Hod Rod Charlie with Happy Saver moving early and losing ground in the process. It’s unlikely though not impossible and as a three year old, he is the most likely to improve here and honestly the others while more accomplished, are all A minus listers.
Hot Rod Charlie - holds a lot of the cards here. Gafflione will likely try to track Art Collector while not moving too soon and he has to beware of his tendency to hang (see Salvator Mile). He is probably the most talented horse here by a tick but not enough to feel all that confident in.
Chess Chief - has been out of form for awhile. For Stewart fans only.
📽In case you didn’t know who Ack Ack is, here is his race record and him winning the SA handicap when it was one of the top two or three races in the US 🏆
