Black Eyed Friday 🌻

Real Writing on Racing 💯

May 19, 2023

🦀 The Preakness and the pair of racing days proceeding it have never had the cache that Kentucky Derby week has and truthfully never will. That isn’t being negative or harsh, it’s just the reality of being stuck in the long shadow cast by the biggest prize in American racing. Modern times have changed racing in almost every way, some for better and more for worse but the Triple Crown and the three races that make up the series have been substantially left alone. Yet in a lesson generally unheeded by industry big wigs, the Triple Crown races and the racing festivals that surround them have never been more popular, despite its distinctly un-modern features. Every year we hear peevish pleas to change some element of the series, from shortening up distances to adding weeks between the races to adapt to modern training and racing trends, most notably the dreaded “spacing” theory. Every year it’s the same pattern, not a single word about changing the Kentucky Derby, it’s distance or traditional running date of the first Saturday in May but as soon as the vast majority of the Derby field (most of whom have just gotten soundly thumped) passes on the middle jewel, the handwringing starts.

Changing something that works is a racing tradition like no other. The problem is that the Preakness can’t be returned to its past glorious self, it’s always been the stepchild of the series. The Kentucky Derby is the pinnacle of desired racing accomplishments, there really isn’t anything else that compares. The Belmont doesn’t exactly “Test Champions” anymore but it still anchors what is annually one of the best weekends of racing we have. When a Triple Crown is on the line, its importance skyrockets and the eyes of a world-wide audience firmly focuses on the big sandy track on Long Island. The Preakness is simply a great weekend on the racing calendar for a tradition-laden regional circuit to get the spotlight for a couple days with solid racing while throwing a huge party. Pushing that back a few weeks might attract a handful of Derby also-rans but it doesn’t change the reality of being sandwiched between more desirable races, a “Malachi Crunch” of racing, especially considering the Haskell, Jim Dandy and Travers also aren’t going away either.

Another huge issue that will be created with a drastic dates change, an important one that seems to elude most, is that the undercard stakes ecosystem surrounding the Derby and Belmont have a natural link to each other in a variety of different divisions, something Pimlico and the Preakness weekend can’t match. If you place the Preakness 4 weeks past the first Saturday in May, then run the Belmont 4 weeks past that day, you have created an 8 week gap in-between races like the La Troienne (Gr 1) and the Ogden Phipps (Gr 1), Kentucky Oaks (Gr 1) and the Acorn (Gr 1), the Old Forrester Turf Classic (Gr 1) and the Manhattan (Gr 1). The Churchill Downs (Gr 1) feeds into both the Met Mile (Gr 1) and the True North (Gr 2). The Twinspires Turf Sprint (Gr 2) runners flow nicely into the Jaipur (Gr 1) as do the fillies and mares in the Unbridled Sidney and the Intercontinental (Gr 3) and female turf milers in the Distaff Turf Mile (Gr 2) and the Just a Game (Gr 1). There are more but you should get the gist of it, the Maryland stakes just aren’t on par and most would still be skipped by the Derby festival runners. Not to mention you’d be placing the Belmont just two weeks before the opening of Saratoga, and put many of their traditional stakes races and those of Churchill Downs in awkward spots. All because we might attract the 3rd and 6th place Derby horses? Seems like a exercise in futility…

The simplest ‘other reason’ that leaving well enough alone is the proper course of action, is that spacing the races out helps the people that least need the assistance, Supertrainers. If the industry of racing had just adopted one motto, “do the opposite of what is good for Supertrainers”…the game would be in far better shape than it is now.

Allaire DuPont Distaff (L) $100,000 3&up F/M 9 furlongs

Le Da Vida (Chi) - the key to this race is the pace and what does Flo Go on Interstatedaydream and Irad on Falconet do? For this mare, she needs them to hook up or at least one not let the other steal off to an easy lead through mediocre fractions. If there is a decent early pace, I’d give her a nice shot at pulling off the minor upset in here going 9 furlongs. (Why doesn’t jockey Cheminaud get more chances? From what I have seen from him, he is pretty good. Also RIP pitching great Vida Blue who passed away last week 😔)
Interstatedaydream - will she or won’t she? If you went by general jockey aggressiveness alone, you’d expect her to be sitting second while Irad and Falconet dictate a slow pace but the truth us that she is quicker than that one and perhaps drawing inside will force Geroux’s hand. Obviously has a big win over the surface but she hasn’t really developed much and is still running TG figs that she was running last March when she was not yet 3 by the calendar. Fade at a short number.
Butterbean - believe it or not I have been compared to the former boxer Butterbean (Eric Esch) though her trainer Kenny McPeek would be competing in that weight class as well. Speaking of which, he has done a nice job campaigning this 4yo filly who has made in excess of $300k and is a graded winner despite her being relatively slow figures wise outside of Prairie Meadows, where oddly she runs as fast as the best mares in the country. This race being held in Baltimore however and lack of early foot makes her a tough sell in here.
Mighty Mauve - nice claim as she already won a stakes race (off turf) but she is way slower than these.
Misty Veil - some trainers are tougher to read than others. For me I’m always zigging when Maker is zagging and I’m not enthused about her here though more because of stylistic issues as she is rounding back into good form but is really best as a one run closer.
Falconet - won a relatively slow paced Top Flite Inv last out over Kathleen O. who returned to disappoint again in last weekends Ruffian (Gr 2) with 3rd place finisher in the Top Flite, Timeless Journey not showing much either. I’d imagine that Irad would handle her aggressively and either send off to the lead or hound Interstatedaydream down the backside. My hope is that they hook up without regard for the others and set the table for La Da Vida (Chi) to run them down late.

The The Very One $100,000 3&up F/M 5f turf

Good luck figuring this one out 🍀

Miss Preakness (Gr 3) $100,000 3yo fillies 6f dirt

L Street Lady - Munnings filly won stakes at Laurel this January despite hanging on her left lead and then was a no show next out, beaten 24 at 8-5 in stakes against similar company in February. Off since, she has run some decent races but this stakes came up ultra tough this year and she runs the risk of getting torched early if she tries to press the pace from post 1.
Key of Life - set blazing fractions in the Beaumont (Gr 2) at Keeneland in her last, barely hanging on to beat a hard charging Interpolate (and my $) while earning a super TG of 2.25. That following a nice score against decent fillies at OP in the Purple Martin Stakes before that. She will be on or dueling for the lead, barring some sort of mishap, with her main rival, the undefeated and untested Maple Leaf Mel. She does cut back from the odd ‘about’ 7f Keeneland Beard course race but she breaks from the starting gate like a quarter horse so I don’t expect any issues from that. Clearly the one to beat with the experience and fitness edge on MLM.
Happy Clouds - bargain $2200 purchase from last January’s Keeneland mixed sale, she was claimed by the current connections this past January and hasn’t been worse than second in five races since. That bubble looks like it will be burst Friday afternoon as this is a major step up in class
Afternoon Tea - has run well both lifetime starts, breaking her maiden last time out at Keeneland in a game effort. She has to improve again to be competitive and I don’t think that’s in the cards today.
Topsy - chased Key of Life to no avail in the Purple Martin, winding up 4th beaten 6. Her best hope is that an epic pace battle ensues and she can pick up the pieces when the embattled leaders start to fade. There is probably a 5% chance for that scenario to play out and you are getting a lot less than 20-1 on her
Maple Leaf Mel - New York bred filly by Cross Traffic is owned by former NY Giants Coach Bill Parcells and trained by TikTok star Jeremiah Englehart. She isn’t your typical New York bred as she has blitzed three state-bred fields showing high speed from the gate in all three races, before being taken in hand late in all three as well. Both the runner up and third place finisher in her season debut, the East View Stakes in March at Aqueduct, came out of that spot and won an allowance and NY sire stakes race since. She gives up the experience advantage to Key Of Life but she has a ton of natural early speed and is nicely drawn outside her, Rosario able to apply pressure as he sees fit. There are several shaky divisions in American racing this year but after seeing the show that Red Carpet Ready and Munny’s Gold put on two weeks ago in the Eight Belles (Gr 2) plus Key of Life 🔑 and Maple Leaf Mel 🍁, the Test (Gr 1) is shaping up to be epic this summer at Saratoga.
Bound by Destiny - not often dual stakes winners that are 4 for 5 lifetime for a trainer currently batting 58% at the meet are 30-1 morning line but here we are.

Hilltop Stakes $100,000 3yo fillies 1 mile turf

This race has a distinct allowance race vibe as most of these fillies haven’t been competing in stakes events. Breath Away (Ire) will be a big favorite here understandably (big Beyer is very questionable) but she is far from unbeatable especially as she has had issues at the start in all three of her races. I’d imagine Aunt Shirley will not be on the lead if the field stays intact and she should improve but I’d be looking to fade at less than 6-1. Aspray, Hang the Moon, Up and Down, After Eight, and Well Into are all interesting contenders in this wide open race.

Pimlico Special (Gr 3) $250,000 3&up 1 3/16 dirt

Sadly this race is but a shell of its former self (check out the throwback video at the bottom of the page) though this years field, while lacking on top of the division runners, is a competitive race with a solid but beatable favorite and several interesting longer priced entrants. Rattle N Roll ran well in the Ben Ali (Gr 3) last out but he isn’t really any faster than several others and at a short price you have to look at a couple others. We are against Law Professor as he and his trainer are far, far better at Aqueduct than anywhere else. Speed Bias is interesting at a long price, Cooke Creek isn’t impossible nor is Clapton, and even old timer Armando R could pull off an upset IMO.

🌻Black Eyed Susan (Gr 3) $300,000 3yo fillies 9 furlongs

Sacred Wish - private purchase raced well in first start for Weaver when stretched out for the first time in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. Interesting that Castellano doesn’t retain the mount, she has paired up TG 7 and could move forward though I’m not convinced that she will.
Pate - tried two turns for the first time in the Fantasy (Gr 3) but got hung a little wide on both of them and didn’t muster up much of a rally. Not convinced she wants to go this far
Hoosier Philly - her three year old season has been a bust as she faltered in both of her Kentucky Oaks preps in New Orleans. Perhaps she simply didn’t handle that surface because her figures and performances have been awful. Not sure what to think as Amoss isn’t easily fooled as it’s hard to believe that she has been as bad as she has looked in her two 2023 starts as she continues to impress in the mornings. Just a hunch but perhaps she rebounds here at a big price, if you have been taking her at odds on, might wanna toss her in at 10-1
Merlazza - speaking of short prices, here is a filly that has won three in a row at 1-2, 3-5 and 3-5. Not crazy about her in this spot as she has been beating up on lesser and her last two have been ‘el perfecto’ trips and Rosario lands on a Pletcher filly that will be a long price, not her.
Frosty O Toole - private purchase prior to her last, a flat 6th in the Gazelle (Gr 3). She’d need to run a lifetime top to get close and there isn’t a whole lot of evidence that race is coming from her
Miracle - scratched
Comparative - a Cox filly that has developed slowly and needs another move forward to get in the mix here.
Balpool - ran back to back big figure races but again Atras numbers are Whittingham-like at Aqueduct and ‘just a guy’ everywhere else. Fadesville.
Faiza - will she be overbet? Yup. Is she the most likely winner? Yup. Will she win? Probably. The connections punted on the Kentucky Oaks, not even nominating her, preferring to keep her with Baffert. So far that decision has been a solid one as Pretty Mischievous ran her eyeballs out in winning the Oaks, running a 1.5 TG which would have required a huge move up from Faiza. The Girvin filly was very sharp last out but that was her best, a 5.5 TG. That said Pretty Mischievous isn’t in this field and if Faiza continues to improve, she will be a problem in the 3 yo filly division this summer.
Taxed - her best races have been seconds behind beaten Kentucky Oaks favorite Wet Paint but she needs to move forward and not regress as she did the last time she recorded a 7 TG.
Cats Inthe Timber - is she good enough? She hasn’t been.
Towhead - not sure what the plan will be from the outside post. Perhaps Gafflione will try to gun to the lead as there isn’t many early speed types in the field and outside of trying that, a wide trip looms. Prefer others.

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