Betting the Same 💵
Real Writing on Racing 💯
*The Going in Circles Digest is pleased to share the work of excellent writers who provide educational, informative and passionate prose about a wide variety of horseracing topics. Today’s guest writer is Julian Brown who has written about handicapping for American Turf Magazine among others. Julian has owned horses under the name of Black & Tan Stable that raced in the mid-Atlantic region and also moderates The Handicappers Insight a private Facebook group for serious handicappers.
Betting the Same
By Julian Brown
One decision horseplayers confront constantly is how much to wager. There are many ways to handle – bet in relation to the perceived opportunity, bet a percentage of bankroll, bet the same on each race, etc.
In a perfect world, you would bet more where the edge is greatest, but this is difficult for many reasons. The odds often change dramatically after it’s possible to wager, the edge in reality may not be as great as you think (or hope), and/or the emotions of the day cloud your judgment (e.g. the edge appears huge in part because you are trying to get out or you’re “hot”).
Betting guru Barry Meadow in essence reminds us that you should bet more on plays with the highest win probability because you will have a higher hit rate and be less likely to face a losing streak that taps your bankroll. But that leaves you betting more on 6/5 shots, which doesn’t move the needle.
One strategy is for a particular day, bet the same on each play, assuming you’re win betting, or bet the same into a race, if your betting is more complicated. If you have a sense of how many races you like going into a day’s cards, you will know exactly how big a bankroll you will need. You streamline your decision-making process of a race to some degree because you only have to decide whether you like a race, not so much how to invest in it. You avoid situations where you don’t have enough money on a nice-priced winner to make a difference. You also don’t pound short-priced winners while still making enough on those to cover a few losing bets. You avoid being overly aggressive by chasing earlier losses and also avoid wrapping up early from earlier wins, thus missing out on a great opportunity later in a card.
Playing the same amount on each race won’t make sense to all players, but it certainly can help the bottom line of some. You’ll develop some consistency to your wagering, and it will allow you to focus on the handicapping process. It’s also a guardrail on letting your emotions to take you off a cliff.
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