Belmont Weekend Preview part 1
Real Writing on Racing 💯
Previewing Belmont Weekend
I will readily admit to suffering from Baffert fatigue and promise that will be the final time that now controversial six letter word will be uttered in this weeks newsletter. So instead of writing about different facets of industry dysfunction, I will be diving into what’s good about racing, that is the stakes laden cards at Belmont Park this weekend. Some of the stakes we are going to gloss over or ignore (Friday’s Tremont with a 1/2 morning line favorite in Little Drama who is hoping for that) but we will try to hit on some others with observations and opinions that perhaps you might be able to factor into your own handicapping. It’s a nice card Saturday though the Phipps has been decimated by two important horses scratching and there will be a bunch of contenders in various races with a jockey change as Irad Ortiz, Jr. will be off his mounts for a few weeks after a taking a spill yesterday.
True North grade 2 $300000 6 1/2 furlongs
Firenze Fire - Loves Belmont Park with 6 wins in 9 starts there including open lenght scores in the Runhappy, Vosburgh and last years True North his last 3 Belmont Park starts. He is also by far the fastest horse in the race by speed figs and outside of drawing the rail and potentially getting shuffled back and needing a new rider should be tough to beat at a pretty short price. The only caveat here is he does not like a wet track so monitor the track conditions before wagering.
Flagstaff - Likely second choice in here coming out of having his head down at the exact right moment to capture the Churchill Downs Handicap in a blanket finish last out. The 6th place finisher from that event (Bango) came back to win the Aristides at CD last Saturday which is a good sign for the form to hold up. The downside is that he isn’t nearly as fast at the favorite here and really isn’t significant faster than a couple of others that will be far better prices. Also picks up 6 pounds off of that race which can’t help his cause. He can win but won’t be anywhere near fair value.
Big Engine - Hasn’t been able to break through at the stakes level against state breds and though this is not a stellar edition of the True North, he still looks to be a cut below.
American Power - Tough to read but perhaps might wind up being the pace setter in a race that lacks a true pacesetting type. Doesn’t possess blinding early speed, he has recently led through dawdling fractions but is one of the only horses that shows “1’s” in the early stages. Runs speed figures just a tiny fraction slower than Flagstaff but you will get a far better price on him.
Looking at Bikinis - Ran down American Power in their last start going 7 furlongs. Lightly raced horse that one time showed some promise going longer might be a little compromised with the lack of pace especially running at the shortest distance he has competed at since September of 2018.
Wicked Trick - Was third behind the last two in that allowance race before running a solid 2nd to Dr Post in the Westchester going a mile. Cuts back in distance and is another that would probably do better with more pace than less for the embattled Linda Rice.
Phat Man - Also comes out of the aforementioned Churchill Downs Handicap on Derby day, checking in 5th after coming up the rail in the stretch. He has run speed figures good enough to win but as this is a non-lasix race, he is a horse than has run significantly slower without it.
Bed of Roses grade 3 $300000 7 furlongs
Lake Avenue - Tapit filly has never really elicited a lot of buzz despite being 4-10 lifetime with one of those wins being a grade 2 stakes. Started off 2021 for Bill Mott/Godolphin in fine fashion by cruising to two easy wins at GP and AQU with the latter being a listed stakes by 6 3/4 lengths. Sent off as the favorite in the Ruffian last out, she sat what seemed to be a good trip before faltering inside the 1/8 pole, beaten 6. Tough call.
Scratched
Alandra - Beat up on softer last out going a mile at Belmont. Cuts back here to 7f on the 20 turnaround for Shug. Hasn’t run nearly fast enough yet though she is improving.
Bayerness - Won her comeback race going 6 furlongs over a sloppy CD surface when teamed with Luis Saez for the first time. Stretches out to 7f here which should be a more suitable distance for the emerging Cherie Devaux. Our selection at anything close to the morning line which is 10-1.💵
Victim of Love - This Speightstown filly has made a career out of winning the Vagrancy which she did again in her last start which makes her 2 for 2 over the Belmont surface. She is definitely a factor in this event but has shown a propensity to react off of top efforts like her last race. Leaning against.
Scratched
Pacific Gale - She was known for racing well but not winning before two consecutive winners circle appearances at Gulfstream changed that narrative. She got off to a terrible start in last before rallying to just miss 2nd to Victim of Love. Respect her and would use her underneath, gonna shy away from using her on top.
Estilo Talentoso - Ran great at long odds her last three starts in stakes at Laurel, Keeneland and Churchill Downs all sans Lasix for unheralded trainer Juan Arriagada. Her biggest problem is something that Pacific Gale was a victim of, racing well yet not winning. She only has 2 wins in her career in 13 tries though she is in career best form and keep company with some of the leaders of the division.
New York Stakes grade 2 $750000 1 1/4 on inner turf
Magic Attitude - Galileo filly won last years grade 1 Belmont Oaks over this colt course and is coming in off of an impressive score in the grade 2 Sheepshead Bay. Should get her preferred covered up, ground saving trip and rates a decent chance under Trevor McCarthy.
Virginia Joy (Ger) - German bred filly made her four year old and US debut for Chad Brown a winning one, capturing a Belmont allowance at 1 1/4 fourth two days ago. In that race the Soldier Hollow filly showed good late acceleration and despite losing Irad Ortiz due to injury, rates a punchers chance at a long price.
Micheline - Scratched
My Sister Nat (GB) - The second of four from the Brown turf army, this distance specialist usually runs well but as a 6 year old with three lifetimes wins, she doesn’t get to the line on top much.
Harvey’s Lil Goil - I admit I hate this fillies name but respect her talent. She has come into her own, improving into one of the best turf fillies in the US. Early in she was successful on the dirt before Mott switched her over to the grass full time. She rewarded that wise decision by winning the grade 1 QEII cup at Keeneland, finishing fastest when third by a neck in the Breeders Cup FM turf and her return to the races with an easier than it looked score in the grade 3 Beaugay. She has tactical speed which allows Junior Alvarado to place her where she needs to be and is the fastest filly in the race on 2021 figures.
Civil Union - Lightly raced 6 year old filly won grade 1 Flower Bowl at this distance last season before encountering troubled trips in the BCFM Turf and the Beaugay. She is listed at 12-1 on the morning line which makes her a filly to consider as she is talented and can get the 1 1/4 with no issue.
Mean Mary - Scat Daddy filly won the race last year going wire to wire to finish more than 5 lengths ahead of My Sister Nat. In her seasons debut on the Preakness undercard, she set soft fractions and held off the closers by a diminishing half length at 4/5. She might get some pressure on the lead from Antoinette or Traipsing and even Harvey’s Lil Goil won’t be too far off. Much tougher task than last year.
Antoinette - Disappointed in last, fading to be 5th after setting slow pace in Sheephead Bay. Tough to see a trip that makes her a winner in here
Thundering Nights (Ire) - Joe O’Brien shows up with this filly who just ran an outstanding 118 time form rating at the distance in her 4 year old debut in Ireland. A grade 3 winner last summer she appears to be the X factor in here, dropping 11 pounds, adding Johnny Velazquez for dangerous connections. The filly that beat her last out Broome, came back and won a group 2 race then just missed in the grade 1 Tattersalles Gold Cup. If her European form translates she will be the one to beat. 🍀
Traipsing - Nice filly. Not nice enough against this group
Mutamakina - Solid filly with three solid starts from solid turf stakes barn of Chris Clement. Was no match for Magic Attitude in last but rates a shot to get on the board with a decent trip. Handles less than firm turf
Scratched
We aren’t going to attempt to handicap a 2 mile race though the European shipper Baron Samedi would seem to be a solid favorite with 6 straight wins including a grade 3 going 1 3/4 last out. Hopefully have tomorrow’s Belmont preview out later tonight! Good luck if you are playing 🤞🏼