Belmont Stakes Day Preview part 2
Real Writing on Racing 💯
Selected Stakes Previews
With 8 graded stakes on the card we are going to focus on the ones we have the most information/angles/opinion to share. The weather is predicted to be perfect and the turf will have a little give and being listed as good to start the day after yesterday’s strong storms. Good luck to everyone that is playing!
Woody Stephens Grade 1 $400000 3 yo’s 7 furlongs
Nova Rags - Finally improved speed figure wise to the periphery of being competitive in this class of race. Cuts back in distance to a sprint after trying to get on the Derby trail earlier this spring and comes out of a decent runner up finish in the Peter Pan at 1 1/8. Mott has good numbers with the turn back and a pace battle would benefit him immensely. The question is that he still isn’t fast enough and can he stay close enough to benefit if the leaders falter?
Drain the Clock - Hasn’t done much wrong in his 7 race career so for with his only defeats being when he lost his jockey at Delta Downs and in the Fountain of Youth going two turns. Two big questions here are how does replacement jockey Jose Ortiz filling in for his injured brother Irad, deal with the pace scenario with Jackie’s Warrior, Dream Shake and perhaps Caddo River all showing speed to his outside? The other question is his speed figures have not improved a great deal since January and he is probably going to have to run a lifetime best to win here.
Jackie’s Warrior - Comes out of the Pat Day Mile on the KY Derby undercard which was his return to one turn races after an ill-fated attempt to jump on the Derby trail. That race turned out to be a war as he was pressed by Dream Shake through scorching early fractions (21.3/43.3) as those two drew clear of a solid group. Jackie would not be denied as he refused to let his rival get past him, winning by a head though admittedly they were decelerating the last 1/4 mile. Joel Rosario will be sending him to the lead again this afternoon, the question is how much do his rivals press him? What does Drain the Clock do inside him? Does Dream Shake back off a little and try to save something for the stretch run with other speed seemingly signed on? Is Caddo River fast enough to keep up? Will that last race being such a battle cause him to negatively react here? Lot of questions that make for the best races. I honestly don’t know, he might just be too good for this group but I’m going to try to beat him here at a short price.
Dream Shake - Surprised me when he was asked to shadow Jackie’s Warrior though those supersonic fractions after cutting back in distance from the two turn 1 1/8 of the Santa Anita Derby. He not only was able to keep pace but never gave up an inch of ground and bravely pressed him right to the wire. Is it possible that the race where his speed figure jumped way up to match his career debut going to cause him to react negatively? Or do you look at it from the standpoint that he has two one turn/sprint races and ran huge in both and maybe just is that much better than his two turn numbers? With potential speed horses signed on will Prat take back a little and try to run past the leaders late? Just a guess but I think he will sit 3rd or 4th and try to pick up the pieces.
Tulane Tryst - On first glance you might think this son of Into Mischief is overmatched against the rest of the field all of which have been exclusively racing in graded stakes company and he is making his stakes debut. He does have a few things going for him in here though as his speed figures are excellent (his last is faster than Drain the Clock), there is no question about his style as he will be last of the six early and hoping to pick up the pieces and gets a rider change to Luis Saez which never hurts. Might not yet be ready to beat this type but has a fighting chance to get on the board if a pace meltdown occurs.
Caddo River - He has been a hot button topic in racing circles as his two pace scenario situations in the Arkansas preps with Concert Tour led to neither running in the Kentucky Derby which may have changed the course of history. The cutback to this distance might be as much about Cox’s arsenal of other talented two turn 3 year olds (Mandolun, Essential Quality, Fulsome, etc) as it is about Caddo River. That said he might not be quite fast enough to get in front of this group but importantly Geroux won’t have to take much of a hold of him and chasing from the outside might work for him. Well it’s going to have to because there doesn’t look like any other trip can happen. Tough to recommend here.
Acorn Grade 1 $500000 3yo fillies 1 mile
Travel Column - One of the leaders in the 3yo filly division all year, she faltered on the lead in the Kentucky Oaks last out, fading to be 5th after leading to the top of the stretch. Cuts back to a one turn mile here, her only other one turn race was her first which was her winning debut at 6f last September. Her figures overall aren’t that fast and the unknown factor of racing inside of other speed horses to her outside on the turn back makes it a shaky play
Obligatory - Rallied from far back in the Eight Belles to get up to upset Dayoutoftheoffice in her comeback race on the Oaks undercard. Ran a big fig in that race, much faster than she had run in prior races. Will be running late but will the track be playing against her as it often does on big days when speed seems to hold? See what happens in the earlier dirt races before landing on her.
Miss Brazil - SCRATCHED 🙄 Talented filly that has kind of been operating under the radar in NY her entire career. Pressed likely favorite Search Results to a narrow defeat in the Busher at the same 1 turn mile in March at Aqueduct. Came back six weeks later and dusted a field of older allowance rivals by 5 while being geared down late earning the fields fastest speed figure. Had lasix for that race and doesn’t get it here but it’s been difficult to discern when that matters before races in this new lasix on/lasix off era. She looks to be the fastest out of the gate here and is the likely pacesetter on the stretch out. Super dangerous if they let her dictate the terms without pressure.
Dayoutoftheoffice - Last years runner up in the 2yo filly Eclipse voting, her delayed return to the races was a good effort when getting run down by Obligatory in the Eight Belles at Churchill. Figures to try to sit in a stalking position off of Miss Brazil’s flank and might get first run at her. The one to beat.
Make Mischief - The most experienced runner in this group with 11 lifetime starts coming in. Seems to be a cut below this field.
Search Results - The likely favorite who has done nothing wrong in her four race career. Just missed in a rousing rendition of the Kentucky Oaks to the undefeated Malathaat in her last and drew well to be in a stalking position off of the speed. My only question is does the cutback hurt her here and as more of a grinder, can she quicken enough after chasing a solid pace? At a short price I will take a shot against.
O.Phipps Grade 1 $500000 Fillies/mares 1 1/16
Swiss Skydiver -scratched
Valiance - scratched
Letruska - Shocked the world by upsetting Monomoy Girl and Swiss Skydiver in the Apple Blossom last out at Oaklawn. Now looking at a rematch against Shedaresthedevil who beat her by a when her rider in that race, Joel Rosario decided to rate her letting her rival get away with a soft opening quarter. With Jose Ortiz subbing for Irad, I’m not sure that they might employ similar tactics though I sure wouldn’t be conceding the lead. She is the fastest filly on figures and the one to beat.
Queen Nekia - In here to potentially pick up the pieces and get a Grade 1 placing as she isn’t really good enough and without a wild speed duel her chances to win are slim.
Shedaresthedevil - defeated Letruska when given an unchallenged lead in the Azeri. Came back to win the grade 1 La Troienne at Churchill on the Oaks undercard in a relatively uninspiring showing, holding off a stubborn Envoutante who returned to beat a modest group in an unlisted stakes. Last years KY Oaks winner is a talented, consistent filly but if Letruska sends today, I believe that she might not even be second.
Water White - Finally took a forward step on figures last out but still appears to be in here to try to nail a grade 1 placing as opposed to trying to win. Another that will be watching to see how the pace scenario develops.
Bonny South - Been working in company with the Belmont Stakes favorite Essential Quality for trainer Cox who also has Shedaresthedevil in here. Improved her best TG # in her 4yo debut winning the Doubledogdare at Keeneland in April. Was a step below the top of her division as a three year old but might be in the garden spot to pick up the pieces if a pace war takes place. The most likely upsetter but you probably aren’t getting the price that you should.
The Met Mile Grade 1 $1000000 3 and up 1 mile
Mischievous Alex - Has gotten ludicrously good as a 4 year old off of the trainer change. Ran negative 4.5 TG last out and makes you wonder if he can recover in 63 days. Has to press Knicks Go from the inside and loses Irad both of which are not great. These are the types that make modern day handicapping so difficult but I’m not using.
Dr Post - He was a good three year old that never seemed to be able to turn the corner though had some physical issues that led to his year being cut short after getting beat at .70 in the Jim Dandy. He came back impressively in the Westchester running a new lifetime top and beating a decent group while looking less than all out. Will be chasing a faster pace today but merits a good look.
Silver Slate - comes into this on a 5 race win streak including 3 for 3 this year but this is a big step up in company. Will need to run a lifetime top to get in the picture. Might be overlooked despite the streak
Lexitonian - Just missed in big effort at huge number on Derby undercard. Unfortunately has always reacted off of those races and needs to move forward to have a chance which seems unlikely.
By My Standards - Was being pointed to a much softer spot at LoneStar till an audible was called and landed him here. He has efforts fast enough to win but he is kind of an unknown at the one turn distance. If a duel between Mischievous Alex and Knicks Go happens, he would seem to be the prime beneficiary.
Knick Go - The tour de force campaign that started when new trainer Cox took over the reins last spring came to a halt in the desert of Saudi Arabia where he stopped after setting a contested pace in the Saudi Cup. Beaten 8 lengths that night when finishing 4th was the first sign that he wasn’t actually invincible. Pointed here since, he seems to be the controlling speed from the outside and unless Mischievous Alex engages early he has the tactical advantage over this group.
Belmont Stakes Grade 1 $1500000 3yo’s 1 1/2
Bourbonic - Did no running in KY after shocking last to first upset in the Wood. Don’t expect much more in today’s race unless something nuts happens like a 7 way speed duel.
Essential Quality - He is the likely and deserving favorite after a wide trip 4th in the Derby as the choice. Has run three figures in a row good enough to win this and his stalking style should allow Saez to workout a decent trip with the only caveat being as always in this race, can he get the 1 1/2?
Rombauer - Ran the race of his life in bludgeoning the Preakness field three weeks ago. Will likely use similar chase and pounce style though he did lose Prat who opted to ride Hot Rod Charlie instead. Picks up Johnny Velazquez who showed once again he still has it when winning yesterday’s Belmont Gold Cup. Might get a decent price and IMO the three weeks isn’t a big deal but might not get the pace scenario that he got in Pimlico
Hot Rod Charlie - Lured Flavian Prat away from the Preakness winner which I’m sure caught some people’s attention. Ran an excellent race in the KY derby, overcoming some early traffic to get decent position and like everyone else just wasn’t able to get past the controversial Medina Spirit in the stretch. Was his best race and best speed figure to date and he seems to be coming into this race well. Has a big chance with the biggest question mark like most modern day horses, can he get the 1 1/2?
France Go de Ina - Appeared overmatched in the Preakness though did impact the race by moving early down the backside and forcing Medina Spirt to maintain a little quicker pace than they likely wanted to.
Known Agenda - Threw in a clunker in the Derby as he lost position early and never really threatened while passing tired and overmatched horses late. Loses Irad and while I expect him to run better as he is more suited to a smaller field, true value on him is like 15-1 and he won’t be anywhere near that.
Rock Your World - Got wiped out coming out of the gate in the Derby and never had a chance after that. Likely pacesetter in a race where speed types that can dictate the tempo are often tough to pass. You won’t get the price you should but a smaller field helps his chances. The question is can he run the best race of his career here because that’s what is going to be required even if he gets away with a soft early pace? At 9/2 I’m not sure I want to find out.
Overtook - When asked earlier in the week about his chances trainer Pletcher seemed to indicate that being by Curlin out of an AP Indy mare was his most attractive Belmont Stakes feature. Does add blinkers for what that’s worth.