Belmont BS
Real Writing on Racing 💯
Acorn Gr I $500000 1 Mile Dirt
Dream Lith - hasn’t developed as a 3year old after looking like she had some promise last fall. Tried grass last out and made a decent run at the leaders but flattened out and was going the wrong way at the end. Trainers numbers in graded stakes are not good and even then are propped up by Lone Rock. Only hope is a wicked speed duel even that might not be enough.
Inventing - the rarely seen Pletcher three year old maiden in a grade I. She actually has a shot of hitting the board if she can improve off her first two races where she got matching 7 TG figs. I mean she only has to beat two to be third so it’s not the greatest feat ever but grade 1 placed always sounds nice for a well bred filly.
Divine Huntress - wheels back on three weeks rest after decent 4th in the Black Eyed Susan at Pimlico. The cutback to a one turn mile might be beneficial but she has yet to show that she is in the class of the top two.
Matareya - she flashed ability as a two year old culminating with a good second in the Fern Creek at Churchill last fall but she has really taken off as a three year old when focusing on sprints. Her TG #’s have been consistently better than Echo Zulu’s this season and we are guessing that she has enough tactical speed to keep her rival honest in here. I was impressed by her ability to escape a tricky spot behind horses in her latest, the Eight Belles (Gr II) at Churchill Downs. We have always been big fans of Echo Zulu but the feeling here is that this filly might be a half step ahead of her at the point. The price won’t be great and honestly these early races may be better viewed than wagered on.
Echo Zulu - ran her eyeballs out in the Kentucky Oaks when beaten to the front for the first time, actually powered to the lead briefly coming into the stretch before being passed by Secret Oath and tiring late at a distance that proved to be a little beyond her scope. This is the logical spot for her return as with the undefeated record gone the connections can concentrate on one turn races. The big question here is can she shake loose of Matareya and hold her off late? The game behind the game for speed fig followers is the fact that she is still running the same TG #’s that she was running last August which is a concern. Nothing was ever really announced or rumored about an injury or other issue but she was late to return to full training if a Kentucky Oaks berth was the goal. She obviously made it and ran well enough but still has not broken through TG of 4.5 and horses at 3-5 shouldn’t have such questions.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Echo Zulu
Just A Game Gr I $500000 1 Mile Turf
Leggs Galore - speedy California bred filly ships in for Phil D’ Amato, stretching out off a ‘down the hill’ sprint at Santa Anita where she led throughout. She only has one way of running and that is on the lead and this race should be no different. In Italian (GB) is a route race speed filly but she doesn’t come close to having the early foot that this mare does. The question is can she run them off their feet early and hold off the late closing power of Regal Glory and Speak of the Devil? She does get weight from both of those and will have to run her best race to have a shot but if you don’t want to just accept the chalk, she is really the only other option.
Regal Glory - six year old Animal Kingdom mare is in career best form and currently is the fastest turf female in North America. Was rumored to be headed off to the breeding shed after running in the inaugural Pegasus Filly/Mare Turf this January but she was so impressive the decision was made to keep her in training and she rewarded her turf female rich connections with a win in the Jenny Wiley (Gr I). She has had a bite at the Just a Game apple twice and hasn’t even hit the board yet but she is in fine fettle and there are no Charlie Appleby entrants this year.
Speak of the Devil - expensive purchase over the winter paid immediate dividends for Brant when she swept by the Distaff Turf Mile (Gr II) field, winning under a tight hold on the Derby day undercard. That wasn’t a stellar group and despite the designation as firm, the grass in Louisville definitely had a great deal of cut in it. The Belmont course may not have quite as much give in it (watch weather) and she may not get over it as well. It’s picking nits because she was a very high class runner in Europe and her form has already translated but betting against these kinds will be far more rewarding in the long run than betting on them
In Italian (GB) - front running filly likely isn’t quick enough to get ahead of Leggs Gallore but she maybe prevent that one from stealing away on the lead and help set things up for her more high profile barnmates. She is getting better but with her in chase mode it’s hard to see her jump up enough to finish on top
Wakanada (Ire) - consistent filly from top connections looks to close into what might be heated pace but she has to improve on her three US efforts as they just aren’t good enough
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Regal Glory
Brooklyn Gr II $400000 12 furlongs Dirt
This race is a pretty good betting event with quite a few you can make a case for. Lone Rock won this same race last year by 11. He has won 5 times since then and thrives at these marathon distances. Max Player got good for 60 days last summer but tailed off badly. He likes Belmont and if you can shrug off his last where he just trailed going too short for him, you might get a square price with new rider Jose Ortiz. Warrant is improving, Fearless has ability but it will be interesting to see how he handles the stretch out in distance
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Fearless
Woody Stephens Gr I $400000 7 furlongs
Jack Christopher - blitzed Pat Day Mile (Gr II) in his return to the races after late season surgery to repair a minor fracture in his shin. He clearly has an excellent chance of winning but will be over bet which is like the theme of the day.
Pappacap - I will give him credit for persistence as he makes his 10th career start here. Ran a lifetime top last out at CD but no match for Jack Christopher. Does he go forward off of that or does he regress? I’m guessing regression.
Wit - he is the X factor in this race. Was touted as a two year old off of a couple of visually impressive early season blowouts including running a 5 TG in July which is super fast for a 2 yo that early. His issues leaving the gate caught up to him in the Hopeful and he ran flat in the Champagne which ended his season. His return as a three year old was very good, winning the Bayshore in an ultra game effort, re-rallying off of a wide trip to nail the ground saving Highly Respected. He broke alertly in that race which was a first and if Jack Christopher gets softened up by some early pressure he might be able to run him down.
Morello - carved up the winter one turn three year olds at the Big A before disastrous Wood debacle. Cuts back to his wheelhouse of 7 furlongs and may get overlooked against the bigger named foes. He ran a TG of 1.75 sprinting back in February which makes him a player here with any sort of improvement. We see lesser horses bounce back from poor performances all the time but it seems like it’s easier to draw a line through a bad race for them than with stakes caliber horses. Rosario who everyone had dead and buried in Asmussen’s barn gets the call today in what might be a far more competitive race than the walkover that the Jack C people might think it is.
Chasing Time - Didn’t fare well on the soft OP derby trail path and Asmussen wisely turned him back to sprinting when he was third three weeks ago in Maryland in the Chick Lang (Gr III) where he rallied nicely while against the bias toward speed that day. He still is a cut below figurewise but I would use him all day long before I’d use Pappacap underneath in exotics.
Provocateur - a progressive (not politically) sort who has really never run remotely fast enough to be a real factor in here. Does he apply pace pressure on Jack Christopher? That may be his biggest impact on this race.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Provocateur
Ogden Phipps Gr I $500000 8.5 furlongs
Letruska - last year’s champion older mare has proven to be close to unbeatable when she doesn’t face any pace pressure and that is probably the key to this race as well. Made her comeback in a layup line type race in the Royal Delta (Gr. III) at GP in February then got back to serious business when repeating in the Apple Blossom (Gr I) at OP in April. If Search Party doesn’t take the race to her and soften her up some this will likely be another procession. If she does face some actual pace pressure and isn’t allowed to easily dictate the terms, she is vulnerable to everyone in this small but classy group. Either way Fausto Gutierrez should get props for his handling of this Hall of Fame level mare which is not something that you’d have said last spring, as she goes for her 6th grade I win.
Bonny South - seemingly always the bridesmaid and never the bride, her past performances are littered with excellent races yet very, very few W’s. Put a scare into the Malathaat crew last out at Keeneland narrowly losing to that one which seems to be the theme to her career. Needs Search Party to help to get the money in here but alas seems more destined for picking up a check other than the big one.
Malathaat - I admit I was surprised but pleased when it was announced that she would be retuning for another season as a 4 year old. That said her comeback race was good but not great despite her earning a solid 1.25 TG fig. The pace setup worked very much to her favor in that comebacker and yes she did what she usually does by getting her picture taken post race but will her lack of brilliance and lumbering style be at a disadvantage around the one turn 8.5 furlong distance versus a longer two turn race? I say yes and will be playing against her here.
Clairiere - was maybe the most unlucky of the fillies involved in the blanket finish in last years Breeders Cup Distaff as altering course at the top of the stretch probably cost her a length or two and her final margin of defeat was less than one. Returned to action as a 4 yo by blasting an allowance field at FG before putting up a valiant effort when second to Letruska in the Apple Blossom (Gr I) getting no assistance in the pace pressure area. Same scenario applies here though as she is good enough to win but has to get a little help on the way to doing so.
Search Results - many were left scratching their heads when she bombed in her comeback race at Aqueduct in the Distaff Hdcp (Gr III). I wondered if the connections considered retiring her off of that uncharacteristic poor race but she rejected that notion with an emphatic three length win in the Ruffian (Gr II) earning a huge minus 1 TG number. The question is how is she ridden in here against Letruska? She is the only one of her four rivals that has any natural early speed as shown by her closely stalking fractions of 22.3 and 45.1 in the Ruffian albeit on a muddy surface. When does Irad put the pressure on the other mare who is coincidentally ridden by his brother Jose? Turn up the heat tooearly and perhaps get in a duel to set things up for one of the quality closers or wait too long and give Letruska too much of a head start? I’m guessing he tries to duplicate the trip from the Ruffian and if that happens, the entire field might have a shot turning for home. This looks to be a great race regardless of how it plays out.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Search Results
Jaipur Gr I $400000 6 furlongs turf
It sounds nuts but at one point in the not so distant past the Jaipur was the only turf sprint stakes run on the NYRA circuit. Hell it might have been the only turf sprint run at all in New York which shows how much has changed. I’m punting on this race as I really haven’t a clue what to do and have very little to add to what you can see for yourself in the pp’s or whatever speed figs that you use. If I had to take a stab or two I’d probably try Filo Di Arianna (Brz) or Gear Jockey or Gregorian Chant (GB) but at morning line odds or greater.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Filo Di Arianna
Metropolitan Handicap Gr I $1000000 1 mile
Flightline - I can’t say that we have ever seen a horse quite like this. Not because of his talent level, but because of the late start to his career and the tepid fashion in which he is handled combined with that immense talent. Very few if any four year olds with one stakes win create the kind of buzz and anticipation that this guy has. However the bubble can burst here, he might be mighty but he has yet to prove that he can handle an actual challenger that won’t just wilt when he turns on the afterburners. Trainer Sadler’s record shipping out of California has been a thorn in his side for years and despite the colts brilliance, with the kid gloves training treatment, you have to wonder if he will be 100% fit off the long layoff? He does things very effortlessly which is why he is super fast but have they done enough with him as when he was jogging in circles a few months back, Speakers Corner was drilling pretty good horses. That said I’m happy that he is here and I’m happy to bet against him and if he blows the doors off this group, I will be happy to sing his praises as well.
Speakers Corner - has flown under the radar this year in terms of fawning fandom despite three easy graded stakes wins in a row, destroying the competition in the last two and earning TG figs of minus 3.5 and minus 4.75 in doing so. Trainer Mott has masterfully guided his improvement from a later developing three year old colt who operated on the fringes of being a good horse to a powerhouse as a four year old. It’s not exactly the same scenario but it feels a little Cigar-ish. I would imagine that Alvarado will keep him lapped on Flightline’s flank, not letting him get away to a clear lead and take the race to him on the far turn. Hopefully they turn for home together and we can see an epic stretch duel.
Aloha West - the Catman has never backdown from a challenge and if the top two get into an nuclear speed duel, this five year old Hard Spun colt might be able to take advantage and pull off the upset. He got screwed in the weights a little bit as a 121 might be a little more fair considering he has one stakes win lifetime and was a non-threatening third in his only race this year. But he should be primed for a big effort here and the question is can his best be good enough to make up a considerable gap in speed figures (lifetime top is 0)? Probably not.
Happy Saver - this the second stakes on the card where Mr Pletcher prevented a four horse field. He is a quality horse who has seen his career turn a bit Tacitus-like since his Jockey Club Gold Cup win as a three year old back in 2020 (except he usually runs second not fourth). If they suddenly added an extra 1/4 mile to this race I’d like his chances better as he most likely will just chase to no avail here.
Informative - trainer Uriah St. Lewis epitomizes the phrase “you gotta be in it to win it” but it appears that even his occasional miracle workings won’t be nearly enough against these. By the way he should be weighted around 106 not that it matters.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Happy Saver
Manhattan Gr I $1000000 10 furlongs Turf
L’ Imperator - wired the Ft Marcy (Gr II) over a bog at Aqueduct earning a nice figure. Hard to see him repeating that sort of number in this spot.
Gufo - might be better at 12 furlongs than 10 and with it looking like potentially a soft pace scenario, I’m not all that excited about taking him at a short price.
Tokyo Gold - returns after some success last year when shipping to the US. Doesn’t have to face any other euro shippers as he did last time he showed up at Belmont. This group which represents much of the best of the American distance turf division isn’t really very scary and given the massive success shippers have had in taking our best turf races in recent years he would be no surprise here. The 30-1 morning line and fact that jockey Demuro comes in to take the mount adds to the appeal. Will be on my tickets.
Adahmo - hasn’t really been all that bad since being imported from France but I get the feeling that there is more there with him. The question is when does it appear? He raced on the best part of the course in his latest at Churchill but didn’t make much of an impact when the real running started. I wouldn’t be shocked if he put it all together and wins one of these type races but I’m gonna guess it won’t be today but wouldn’t try to talk anyone out of him either.
In Love (Brz) - tries longer in his second race as a six year old after having spent much of his American racing life in the mile division, with success I might add. It’s an interesting spot and given the respect I have for trainer Lobo, I’d give him a long look here, especially when coming out of faster paced mile races, he is sitting closer to the early pace and gets the first jump on the closers. Don’t love him but don’t hate him either.
Rockemperor (Ire) - was awful in last over ludicrously soft course but has some races in his pps that are good enough to win this too. Tough call.
Tribhuvan (Fr) - another Brownie that occasionally runs a big one but appears to be off-form and in here mostly as a pace setter.
Highland Chief - Motion did excellent job prepping him in allowance for the win in the Man O’ War (Gr I) but that was an oddly run race with a very slow pace. I’m fading in this spot
Santin - kept getting wildly over eat at the FG this winter but finally put it all together in the Turf Classic (Gr I) on Derby day, edging Mira Mission (who I needed for a score that would have equaled the gross national product of Belgium ☹️) in a super sharp effort. That was only his sixth lifetime start and he has improved TG # in every one of them, getting down to a 1 last out. This is his first try at 10 furlongs and his tactical speed should benefit him in stretching out again. Trainer Walsh almost pulled off the upset in yesterday’s New York (Gr I).
Channel Maker - somehow became my nemesis but respect the old boy for still cranking out an occasional win as a senior citizen. Interesting to me that he is 8 years old and has only won 8 times and once since October 2020. As usual I will pass.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Rockemperor
Belmont Stakes Gr I $1500000 12 furlongs
We the People - turned his promise into results in the Peter Pan (Gr III) where he blitzed a relatively weak group by over 10 lengths, wiring them on a muddy, sealed track. These are the kinds of horses that we are supposed to line up to bet against next out when facing different conditions especially as the favorite. The issue here is that there is no other speed at all and he should be able to dictate the pace to his advantage once again. Can he get the 12 furlongs? His pedigree suggests he can and could this just be playing out to be another D’Tara or Commendable situation where a lone speed gets brave and wires them? It’s his race to lose but I’m not eager to bet at a short price.
Skippylongstocking - got wide trip in Preakness and never threatened. Should save ground but seems to require a fast pace to be at his best and that doesn’t look like it’s gonna happen
Nest - she is bred to be able to handle the distance and got an uncomfortable trip in the Oaks which in this more spread out course and smaller field shouldn’t be an issue. She has run a TG fast enough to win and this isn’t a stellar group of three year old males she is facing here. I’d like her more if she had a little more tactical speed so she doesn’t have to work so hard when chasing We the People but if he doesn’t get the trip, I expect her to be sitting in the best spot to take advantage of that.
Rich Strike - he is a plodding one run closer in a race lacking early speed that has but a single good race in his career. Toss
Creative Minister - ran well in his first crack at stakes company in the Preakness. This is his third race in 5 weeks though and as a lightly raced horse will he regress a bit with the big efforts and a lot of shipping? On TG is running almost identical numbers as Mo Donegal. One thing that the NYSGC vet reports did note that was interesting to me was that he was scoped on Thursday which makes me wonder if he had been coughing or had a slight bit of mucous that made them take a look. Obviously he wouldn’t be running if they thought he wasn’t 100% but it did make me wonder why they did it.
Mo Donegal - ran down the Preakness winner when he was a lone speed in the Wood before getting the Derby Shuffle from post 1 in Kentucky. Honestly believe that he is a good horse who has a lot more upside that may run well here but should probably be 6-1 not 5-2.
Golden Glider - I don’t have much to say about him other than he has improved on TG every race till his last where he might have plateaued (5.25 TG) which means Ohio Derby not Belmont.
Barber Road - see Rich Strike. Same type of no speed, one run closer in a race that has very little pace signed on. Always seems to find trouble too. Could he make a late run and hit the board? Sure.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Creative Minister
Going in Circles Maiden claiming tout of the day : Drakon in race 12