BC Saturday race previews (Part 2)

Real Writing on Racing 💯

Welcome to the Going in Circles Saturday BC Race Preview (Part 2). We will be covering the BC Turf Mile, Distaff, Turf and Classic in the second part of the Saturday preview. As always we don’t make picks but offer previews, pointers, ideas/opinions and angles that you might not see elsewhere. We will include some videos but because of the volume of races and horses, not as many as with the two year olds. You can find a huge library of pertinent videos for all the races on our YouTube channel HERE! Let’s get to it!

☑️ If you missed part one of the Breeders Cup preview click Here!

🎙 Click HERE to listen to the Going in Circles Breeders Cup Preview show (presented by PlayUp Racebook) as Barry and special guest Jason Beides go through all the races and offer strong opinions, chalk to toss out and some super live long shots 💰

BC Turf Mile Gr I $2000000 1 mile grass 3&up

1. Pogo (Ire) - Euro-invader should be in first flight while saving ground, isn’t among the favorites but rates a shot at a big price with inside trip. Here is his last race, The TIEF stakes (Gr II) at Newmarket. Don’t ignore! 🇬🇧

2. Shirl’s Speight - upset the Maker’s Mark Mile over this course in April but hasn’t found that form again. 🇨🇦

3. Dreamloper (Ire) - I’m against her considering that so many seem to be on her bandwagon based on one big race last out on very soft ground. Here is that race, the Prix de Moulin. She will beat me if she wins 🇬🇧

4. Modern Games (Ire) - Appleby/Buick with the likely favorite. Hard to knock anything except the price which won’t be big. Here he is in the Woodbine Mile (Gr I) 🇬🇧

5. Smooth Like Straight - always fires, rarely wins. Likely pacesetter will take them as far as he can go. If Beyond Brilliant were to scratch, it would upgrade his chances 🇺🇸

6. Ivar (Brz) - tends to get shuffled back in bulky groups and this is 14 deep. Hard to believe he only has 14 lifetime starts because he has seemingly been around forever. Can see him getting on the board with a fortuitous trip 🇧🇷

7. Beyond Brilliant - part of the pace, keeping Smooth Like Straight honest is his main contribution 🇺🇸

8. Regal Glory - always fires and seems to be in position to get a good trip stalking a hot pace. A win here likely gets her an Eclipse award…and a fitting career capper 🇺🇸

9. Malavath (Ire) - form seems a little light for this breed of cat. 🇫🇷

10. Order of Australia (Ire) - missed the wedding two year ago….🇬🇧

11. Annapolis - rapidly improving three year old may be looking at tough outside trip but is in career form 🇺🇸

12. King Cause - wide trip is likely from outside post for horse that looks in deep already. 🇺🇸

13. Kinross (GB) - tough post for ultra-consistent invader, can he get the two turn mile especially with the potential ground loss from the wide draw? 🇬🇧

14. Domestic Spending - close to impossible task off 448 day layoff, cutting back to distance that’s less than ideal. Hard to see a trip where he can win this. 🇺🇸

BC Distaff Gr I $2000000 9 furlongs dirt F/M

1. Malathaat - classy mare might get trapped on rail chasing pacesetters, loves Keeneland, can she outkick her younger stablemate?

2. Blue Stripe (Arg) - quality mare that might be half notch below very best

3. Secret Oath - has danced every dance, does she have any improvement left in her? She will need it.

4. Clairiere - how badly will the gate incident at the Spa still affect her a few months later? Before that she was the division leader but I’m skeptical she can get right back to that level

5. Awake at Midnyte - seems overmatched

6. Nest - taken her game to a level rarely seen by three year old fillies. She has the quickness to rapidly accelerate combined with great stamina, a lethal combination for her rivals. The one to beat.

7. Search Results - don’t think she is at her best at 9 furlongs, keeps Society honest on the front end though.

8. Society - late bloomer will try to shake free on the lead and hold on late. A surprising number of ‘experts’ are on her bandwagon and if Search Results weren’t in here, I could see it playing out that way. However Prat isn’t gonna let her steal away too long and when Nest makes that patented and powerful 1/4 pole move…

BC Turf Gr I $4000000 12 furlongs grass 3&up

1. Bye Bye Melvin - pace setting type seems below grade I level quality 🇺🇸

2. War Like Goddess - Mott chose to try the boys at 12 furlongs feeling the FM turf was too short for her to be at her best. This isn’t the best version of the Turf so she has a fighting shot though we prefer others 🇺🇸

3. Stone Age (Ire) - tends to get one paced in big events. Prefer other Euro’s to him but prefer him to any of the domestic runners 🇮🇪

4. Broome (Ire) - erratic 6yo just missed in last years Turf. Back for more and has to rate a punchers chance as he is good enough when he fires his best shot though it’s hard to know when that is coming. Reunited with Irad who rode in Turf last year 🇮🇪

5. Rebel’s Romance (Ire) - Appleby gelding has been running a clinic over in Germany with 2 consecutive grade 1 (check out his Preis von Europa at Cologne) to add to his current 4 race win streak since being switched back to the grass. The 2021 UAE Derby winner on the dirt, he is 4 for 4 on grass and at 12 furlong distance! Ladies and gentlemen…Chuck Appleby! 🇬🇧

6. Channel Maker - seems ready for his annual attendance of the pace in the Turf without any real chance of winning 🇺🇸

7. Nations Pride - three year old has been throttling US based sophomores including Mile contender, Annapolis. Check out his latest destruction at BAQ, the Caesar’s Jockey Club Derby (Gr III). Distance won’t be an issue and Buick chooses him over Rebel’s Romance despite that one’s obvious credentials. The one to beat. 🇬🇧

8. Master Piece (Chi) - one run closer might find these waters a little too deep 🇨🇱

9. Gold Phoenix (Ire) - four year old gelding has had nice year though he hasn’t shown that this class of race is within his scope yet. 🇺🇸

10. Red Knight - had a nightmare of a trip in the Sycamore (Gr III) but 8 year old has never given off grade I vibes before anyway. 🇺🇸

11. Mishriff (Ire) - absolute top class horse hasn’t been in the best of form in 2022. Adds blinkers off of poor effort which seems a little desperation, trying to reverse that trend. Hard to recommend in current form 🇬🇧

12. Nautilus (Brz) - Brazilian import is a mystery at this class level. Hasn’t run since June 26 but first time Lobo is 39%, though admittedly none were a South American import in the Breeders Cup Turf. 🇧🇷

13. Highland Chief (Ire) - got dream, rail-skimming trip in the Sycamore (Gr III) a few weeks back. Post 13 means that another inside trip is unlikely, as are his chances to win 🇺🇸

BC Classic Gr I $6000000 10 furlongs dirt 3&up

1. Taiba - three year old has displayed improvement throughout the year after getting a late start on the Kentucky Derby trail. Faces elders for the first time and figures to sit behind the expected duel between Life is Good and Flightline. The question is does he move forward once again and become a threat to those two or is he just jockeying for position to pick up minor spoils?

2. Life is Good - has sprinters speed that he has been able to stretch out to 9 furlongs but failed to last the 10 furlong trip in his only attempt at it (Dubai World Cup). The track surface that day was unusually deep and has been blamed for the defeat yet a couple of less than powerful performances in the Whitney (Gr I) and Woodward (Gr I) have not exactly been flattering in regard to him getting that extra furlong. When you add in the presence of Flightline, another colt who has that same rapid early foot but who is a proven performer at 10 furlongs…the doubts grow louder. He has one chance to redeem himself in that regard and that’s Saturday and while it seems the entire world has abandoned his bandwagon, IF he can pull off the upset, go wire to wire and beat the mighty Flightline…a Horse of the Year and Hall of Fame nod await. If not…neither…a single race has rarely meant soooooo much to a horses legacy.

3. Happy Saver - has been in chase mode most of the year picking up nice runner-up checks while never really threatening to win. Has been battling a quarter crack on a hind foot which seems like poor timing more than anything.

4. Flightline - The Tapit colt has loomed all year as he rarely appears in the starting gate but when he does, the racing world stops to see him burn. He was super impressive in the Met Mile (Gr I), overcoming a poor start to dust a representative field and then otherworldly when dispatching a mediocre bunch in a Pacific Classic (Gr I) rout. This isn’t an ordinary group he is facing Saturday, Life is Good is the highest quality speed horse he will ever face, Epicenter and Taiba are very good, progressive three year olds, Olympiad and Hot Rod Charlie had solid four year old campaigns, Rich Strike won the Derby. Yet no one expects him to lose, the question asked is just how far will he win by…and a three race, horse of the year campaign seems oddly acceptable which is as good of a measure as to how the big colt is viewed as any. This is likely it for his career, at least on the track as there really aren’t any worlds left to conquer, there are no mystery horses out there that might be lurking, he has won grade 1 races with ease at 7f, a mile and 10 furlongs already. Secretariat won his final two on the grass but that won’t happen today with a horse that is likely worth in excess of 80 million dollars already. Let’s just hope that Life is Good is up to the task, that the two hook up and provide us with a glimpse at what racing at the very highest level used to look like, where the two best horses leave it all out there, there is no “other race” to worry about, the only thing that matters is today and winning now. To the victors the spoils…

5. Hod Rod Charlie - he won the Lukas Classic (Gr II) with a game effort before “shoe gate” erupted and the silliness of HISA’s rules came into play. Figures to get a front two seat to Life is Good/Flightline and should be in a stalking position down the backside, hoping to pick up the pieces left by that clash of titans. Can he outkick the three year olds and Olympiad for a big piece of the pie? I’m fading.

6. Epicenter - the leader of the glamour boy, three year old division seems like yesterdays news considering he hasn’t run since August where he destroyed most of the rest of the crop in the Travers. His quality isn’t in question but he has a lot to lose here as a win by Taiba or (gasp 😱) Rich Strike will cost him the three year old championship while the Not This Time colt winning would trigger all the spoils heading to his corner, the three year old championship PLUS Horse of the Year title as well. He figures to lurk in fifth or so down the backside, biding time to see who emerges from the speed duel and trying to steadily pick up the leaders while outrunning the rest of his rivals, who are also going to be in chase mode. Epicenter has surprised us with unexpected improvement a few times already in his career, he will NEED to do it once again to have any shot at glory in the tenth and final furlong on Saturday.

7. Olympiad - He is the steady grinder of the division. Not flashy, not super fast, not displaying high speed, yet still very effective, he just keeps coming at you. That style seems like it would be at a disadvantage on Saturday as the pace figures to be rapid and he may strain to stay within striking distance. The Speightstown (how great of a sire has he turned out to be!) colt doesn’t have a huge finishing kick to make up 10 or more lengths if the leaders get away from him so look for Alvarado to push him early to stay closer than he may feel comfortable naturally doing.

8. Rich Strike - somewhere this summer the unlikely Derby winner started to improve and while it hasn’t translated into wins, he clearly has not only gotten better but looks to be a real player heading into next season. Still he has done his very best work at Churchill and this Keeneland track surface doesn’t figure to match up well with his favored running style. Leon should just lag and make one late run, trying to pick up as many pieces as he can and if the other main contenders get burned by laying too close to the potential supersonic pace, might hit the board…which would be an accomplishment in itself.

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