BC Saturday race previews (Part 1)

Real Writing on Racing 💯

Welcome to the Going in Circles Saturday BC Race Preview (Part 1). We will be covering the FM Sprint, Turf Sprint, Dirt Mile, FM Turf and Sprint in the first part of the Saturday preview. As always we don’t make picks but offer previews, pointers, ideas/opinions and angles that you might not see elsewhere. We will include some videos but because of the volume of races and horses, not as many as with the two year olds. You can find a huge library of pertinent videos for all the races on our YouTube channel HERE! Let’s get to it!

BC FM Sprint Gr I $1000000 7f 3&up Fillies/Mares

1. Slammed - The 2022 FM Sprint isn’t a good race…it’s a great race! This New Mexico bred filly has been a late arrival to the scene but she has been making up for lost time. Drawing the rail is less than ideal in this bulky field and despite the positive of having a recent win over the surface, that was a lifetime top and regression is likely.

2. Edgeway - she ventured east to race in the Derby City Distaff (Gr I) on the Kentucky Derby undercard, just didn’t appear to be good enough and this is a tougher spot.

3. Chi Town Lady - needs massive pace meltdown and even that may not be quite enough.

4. Ce Ce - the defending champ appears to be rounding back into top form after throwing in a clunker at Saratoga. Should get a solid price and with all the speed signed on, she has a big chance to repeat

5. Frank’s Rockette - she’s as fast as anyone in here and perhaps might be overlooked as she has a habit of running second. Should be able to workout good stalking trip though she hasn’t hit the board in either Keeneland start.

6. Chain of Love (Jpn) - Japanese mare has been tackling males/open company for awhile, now back against females. Oddly the Japanese have no graded stakes for filly sprinters so she comes in search of blacktype. Held her own against 2021 BC Sprint (Gr I) runner-up Dr Schivel in the Golden Shaheen (Gr I) in Dubai this spring, earning a 109 Timeform ratings. William Buick picks up the mount and she has to be respected.

7. Obligatory - if this Breeders Cup were held at Churchill, she’d be my play. Unfortunately I don’t know that her style will work as well at Keeneland and the bulky field makes a clean trip unlikely. If a pace meltdown ensues she would be the biggest beneficiary, but even so she still needs to navigate her way through from 13th which is no small task

8. Goodnight Olive - got the trip of trips when taking down graded stakes fillies and mares in the Ballerina (Gr I) in her stakes debut (IMO the bump at the start ultimately helped her). That dream run is unlikely to happen again, regression is likely and she is gonna be overbet.

9. Sterling Silver - tough to make a case for her

10. Hot Peppers - will be pacesetter or presser but would need huge improvement to hang around

11. Wicked Halo - wheels back in 2 weeks after easy score over the track in the Raven Run (Gr II). Has the right style, has no issues being on the inside and as an improving 3yo in sharp form she is very dangerous at a price.

12. Lady Rocket - figures to be involved in the pace mix, but being drawn in between Hot Peppers and Echo Zulu will give new rider Joel Rosario a puzzle to solve. Tough to see her path to the winners circle.

13. Echo Zulu - 2021 juvenile filly champ was scratched by Rosario while warming up for the Acorn (Gr I) on the Belmont Stakes undercard. Her return to the races was a success as she wired a small group in the Dogwood (Gr III) at Churchill in September, with old-new rider Santana. Post 13 means that he has to decide whether to gun or press from the far outside with the other speed horses drawn inside her. Tough call in a very tough race.

BC Turf Sprint Gr I $1000000 5.5f grass 3&up

1. Creative Force (Ire) - proven group I performer for the Appleby/Buick juggernaut. Has one race with a turn and it was a good one, question is does American-style turf sprinting suit him? Demand a price 🇬🇧

2. Flotus (Ire) - 3yo filly has had some starting gate issues which would spell doom in this spot. 🇬🇧

3. Emaraaty Ana (GB) - was no match for Golden Pal last year, no reason to think he will be this year. 🇬🇧

4. Campanelle (Ire) - she is good enough to beat these as demonstrated in the Platinum Jubilee (Gr I) at Ascot , has a win over the course, picks up Dettori, she should be on your tickets if you are trying to beat Golden Pal. 🇺🇸

5. Go Bears Go (Ire) - adds blinkers but isn’t in great form currently. 🇬🇧

6. Highfield Princess (Fr) - in raging good form currently, price isn’t appealing and question is can she chase Golden Pal and run him down late? 🇬🇧

7. Arrest Me Red - talented turf sprinter but also third best turf sprinter in his own barn. 🇺🇸

8. Golden Pal - The rating/dirt experiment over with, he got back to his bread and butter which is breaking from the gate faster than any horse in North America and playing catch me if you can as he did last out in the Woodford (Gr II). Can he lose? Sure. He didn’t look great in the Saratoga race and even last out he wobbled a little mid-stretch, Irad had to crack him a few times and he didn’t exactly gallop out strong. Take a short price at your own risk 🇺🇸

9. Naval Crown (GB) - not in stellar form but Chuck Appleby don’t chase no empty wagons…use at 30-1 or higher🇬🇧

10. Caravel - tough mare might be in a sliver too tough 🇺🇸

11. Casa Creed - Keeneland record: 3-0-0-0. Very tough to win in Lexington using his preferred lag and make one late run style. 🇺🇸

12. Bran (Fr) - wide trip looms 🇺🇸

13. Cazadero - looped field over the expansive Woodbine grass course going 6f. This grass course isn’t expansive. 🇺🇸

14. Artemus Citylimits - figures to chase from outside and hopes to last for a piece. 🇺🇸

15. Oceanic (also eligible) - If this gelding draws in…use him! 🇺🇸

BC Dirt Mile Gr I $1000000 1 mile dirt 3&up

1. Slow Down Andy - Against this bunch he should be named Speed Up Andy. Tough assignment

2. Simplification - ran a 2.5 TG way back on January 1st. Still running 2.5 TG in September. Cuts back and gets Saez but the improvement never came.

3. Pipeline - softened up Jackie’s Warrior in the Forego, might be on the lead here going back to two turns. Getting loose lead and breather down the backside would seem like the best plan but don’t know how effective he really is around two turns.

4. Law Professor - put a scare into Life is Good over BAQ slop in latest. Erratic type likely bounces off of big effort but unlike most others, is a two turn horse

5. Gunnite - three year old Gun Runner colt got really good sprinting this summer with an easy score just 14 days ago at Keeneland in the Perryville stakes, being the latest success. Stretching out to a 2 turn mile, coming back on short rest and tackling older foes…seems like you’d want a lot higher price than the 7-2 listed morning line.

6. Laurel River - late developing Baffert sprinter stretches back out here after knocking off the Pat O’ Brien (Gr II) at 7f which came after winning a pair of 2 turn dirt mile allowance races. Picks up Irad, Baffert rarely uses him and you’d think he’d be ridden aggressively stretching back out. Still a little slow on figures but has improved and might get ideal trip if he winds up on the lead.

7. Cody’s Wish - knocked off Jackie’s Warrior in the Forego (Gr I) with a little help from Pipeline in latest. Will his late kick be mitigated by the extra turn? Will he bounce off of the -2.25 TG? Must respect but is only one of several possibilities in here and a short price looms. Definitely has the best Backstory.

8. Informative - it’s Uriah so anything can happen. Literally anything can happen…

9. Cyberknife - can’t blame the connections for ducking the Classic as he would be a longshot to even hit the board in there. In here…the one to beat. Flo Go should be able to workout a decent trip and IMO he still has one last jump in him this year. Unlike many of the others, he is a true two turn horse who has been keeping the very best of company and the actual distance in this race is closer to 1 mile and 70 yards than a mile.

10. Senor Buscador - another one that we have questions for about a second turn. If you missed the wedding…don’t be there for the divorce.

11. Three Techniques - Jason Cook has done a great job with this gelding but the post hurts and the two turns is a mystery. Using underneath at huge price isn’t the worst idea though.

BC FM Turf Gr I $2000000 1 3/16ths turf 3&up F/M

1. Lady Speightspeare - Canadian campaigner stretches out for the great Roger Attfield. Saez picks up the reins, she has speed…the question is will he use it against In Italian (GB) or will this be like so many other graded turf stakes where the lead is simply conceded? IMO riding her aggressively puts her in better position to get on the board as I don’t see her chasing In Italian (GB) and still out finishing the Euro-fillies. 🇨🇦

2. Going to Vegas - this mare was the recipient of one of those lead concessions in the Rodeo Drive (Gr I) at SA, her prep for this. She set the pace in last years FM Turf and got beat 26 so I’m guessing new plan. Just seems a cut below the best. 🇺🇸

3. Nashwa (GB) - three year old Frankel filly is the highest of high class runners shipping in for this. Handles all manners of ground, she should get good position under Hollie Doyle and looms as the one to beat. 🇬🇧

4. Above The Curve - another outstanding three year old filly trained by Joe O’Brien, comes out of same blanket finish in the Prix de L’ Opera (Gr I) as Nashwa (GB), not much separates those two. Johnny V picks up the mount as regular rider Ryan Moore stick’s with Aiden’s filly, Tuesday (Ire) . Big chance. 🇮🇪

5. Tuesday (Ire) - another three year old shipper, this Galileo filly faded late in the Prix de I’Opera (Gr I) and might be considered the lessor of the top three European three year old fillies. Still she might prefer firmer ground, has some huge running lines on her card and Moore/O’Brien are always dangerous. 🇮🇪

6. Mise En Scene (GB) - she traveled to Del Mar last year and faded in the Juvy filly turf. Hasn’t really gotten much done as a three year old, was second in low rated stakes at Yarmouth in latest. Would be a shocker. 🇬🇧

7. Toy (Ire) - runner up in the Irish Oaks (Gr I) in July, she tuned up for this in a minor event at Naas. Stranger things have happened but she is more of a B team type of Euro-shipper. 🇮🇪

8. Family Way - 2022 record. 7 starts. 6 on the board finishes. 1 win. She is ultra consistent but more likely to be a runner up than a winner. 🇺🇸

9. Roughir (Fr) - hard to gauge as she wants some cut in the ground and might not get it. If a quick pace materializes, it plays into her favor with her over the top closing style, otherwise she may find herself with too much to do.🇺🇸

10. Virginia Joy (Ger) - literally stole a Gr II when dawdling to an uncontested 1:19.2 fraction in the “What the hell is Rosario doing on War Like Goddess?” Flower Bowl last out. In here she just sort of gets in the way or perhaps rides shotgun for In Italian (GB)? Prefer most others.🇺🇸

11. In Italian (GB) - The biggest question in this particular event is does this filly get pressured on the lead in her first attempt beyond 9 furlongs? If she gets even token pressure can she hold off the Euro-three year olds, all of whom get a 4 lb weight break too. If she gets a walking lead, she may be able to sprint home and maintain a safe distance. I don’t have the answer at this time. See how the grass plays on Friday, it might matter. 🇺🇸

12. Moira - talented three year old Canadian filly handled the switch to the grass with aplomb, just missing to Roughir (Fr) in the EP Taylor (Gr I) despite having to alter course plus hesitating for a split second when she almost put Lemista (Ire) over the rail. Dettori picks up the mount and the 2002 Frankie might have enough magic to figure a winning trip but alas time waits for no one, it’s 2022. 🇨🇦

BC Sprint Gr I $2000000 6 furlongs 3&up

1. Manny Wah - What has become of the American Sprinter? We have ONE graded stakes quality sprinter with speed? Groovy is turning over in his grave. One horse who definitely doesn’t have speed is Manny Wah, who sort of backed into the Sprint by picking up the pieces in a soft edition of the Phoenix (Gr II). Amazingly that race featured what looks to be a far stronger early pace than this one.

2. Kimari - I get what Wesley is doing with her but he should have found a rabbit to add to the mix to really shake things up. She does love Keeneland and should be siting within striking distance of Jackie’s Warrior if anyone dares put some pressure on him. If you don’t want JW, you probably should take her, I have a hard time conjuring up a case for anyone else.

3. O Besos - when I saw he was entered I said there used to be a decent Kentucky Derby trail horse with a similar name but he wasn’t a sprinter so this must be someone else. It wasn’t. It was him! Always root for Greg Foley but I don’t think that will be enough here.

4. American Theorum - the lone West Coast hope. What happened to ‘California Speed’ ??? Very Subtle would be disgusted at this turn of events. Anyway he is a solid citizen sort who has been in super form since concentrating on sprints. His style requires that someone force the pace as he generally makes his move at the quarter-pole and unless pressure materializes, Jackie’s Warrior might be gone by that point. He doesn’t really have much recourse so Joe Bravo has to bide his time and hope for the best.

5. Aloha West - last years Phoenix (Gr II) winner parlayed a perfect trip, a less than 100% Jackie’s Warrior and a head-bob into million dollar payday and Breeders Cup Sprint trophy for the Catman. He has mostly kicked around in 2022 and likely won’t get that same strong pace he received last year to unleash his closing kick into. Off to stud at Mill Ridge soon…he always has Del Mar to think about in between meeting new mares…

6. Elite Power - Curlin colt has been a little slow to develop but is in very good form now. Destroyed a poor field in the Vosburgh (Gr II) (Groovy just rolled over again 🙄) but can’t hold that against him. Like many others he is more of a stalking type that may be forced into chasing because of the absence of early speed in the Breeders Cup freakin Sprint! I’d like to make a futures wager on him to win the 2023 Met Mile.

7. Super Ocho (Chi) - strictly for Chad ‘Ochocinco’ fans.

8. CZ Rocket - when an 8 year old wins a big race it’s usually one of those ‘feel good’ types of stories. If CZ Rocket wins, it won’t be a ‘feel good’ story except for maybe Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears who has had odd man-crush on him forever.

9. Jackie’s Warrior - looser than loose on the lead, really no excuses this time unless he stumbles bad or a meteorite falls from the sky and strikes him at the quarter pole. If you look up “The one to beat” in the ‘racing dictionary’, a picture of Jackie’s Warrior under a Rosario stranglehold will be staring back at you.

10. Willy Boi - FREE WILLY! He actually has pretty decent amount of early lick though I doubt it will be utilized dueling with JW.

11. Flash Of Mischief - Broberg makes the Breeders Cup! What a story that would make…

☑️ For part 2 of the Saturday Breeders Cup Preview click Here!

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