BC Friday race previews

Real Writing on Racing 💯

Welcome to the 2022 Going in Circles Digest Breeders Cup Preview! We will cover each race over the two days as we always do; preview the runners, make some hopefully salient points and offer some ideas/opinions about each race, trying to highlight something that may not be obvious in the pps. We have also included videos of many of the contenders races that you can simply click on to see . The comments section will be open and we would love to hear your opinions too! We will be taping two BC preview shows that will be available Wednesday night/Thursday morning for a more in-depth look at the races with Barry and Jason Beides. Best of luck to all that are playing!

🌟 Huge Game of Silks news coming…

🚫 These Friday races are mostly wide open, no chalk zone should be in effect

✅ PlayUp Racebook has a free Breeders Cup contest up and running (see bottom of page for a link)

BC Juvenile Turf Sprint Gr I $1000000 5.5f 2yo’s

1. Lady Hollywood (GB) - filly is a 4x winner already, draws the rail after annexing a grade III at Longchamp last out. Not without a chance in this wide open event while getting 3 lbs for the sex allowance and has shown good early speed.

2. Love Reigns (Ire) - another filly, she has a win over the course and exits an easy win in the Bolton Landing at Saratoga after having run decently in the Queen Mary (Gr II) overseas in June. Huge player for Ward/Irad.

3. Private Creed - 3 for 4 lifetime, all in turf sprints with the loss coming with a tough trip at Saratoga. Most recent was stakes score in the Indian Summer over the Keeneland surface and will be closing late. Has to not wind up with too much to do in this bulky group but is a contender

4. Dramatised (Ire) - Looked great in June in the Queen Mary (Gr II) at Ascot but follow up at York in August was dull and nothing since. Adds Ryan Moore

5. Mischief Magic (Ire) - Appleby has been US trainers ‘daddy’ the last few years when he ships across the pond. This one has some of that Appleby/Buick allure though the Exceed and Excel colt does his best running from the back of the pack, a tough task in Keeneland turf sprints. He has run successfully around a turn albeit a right handed one and will be rolling late but underneath in exotics might be the play. Latest was 4th in Middle Park Stakes (Gr II)

6. Persian Force (Ire) - has done nothing but run well in each of his 7 starts. Knocking at the door in Group I company (Prix Morny (Gr I)) , has tactical speed, Dettori returns and you are getting 15-1? Sign me up.

7. Oxymore - cuts back to sprint after failing to last a mile in the Nownownow at Monmouth. In with a chance though I’m likely to fade. Lasix off too.

8. American Apple - this filly upset the apple cart in the Matron (Gr III) for low profile connections. Hard to see her being good enough against this group as the Matron wasn’t a great bunch.

9. Sharp Aza Tack - the first of two sons of Sharp Azteca in here, got nailed on the wire by a closing Private Creed last out at Kentucky Downs, will be a pace factor…can he survive the early fractions and hold off the closers? Tough call.

10. Tyler’s Tribe - the other Sharp Azteca, he has destroyed Iowa breds on the dirt showing high speed in the process. Can he handle the grass? Workouts haven’t shown much conclusive and it’s a guessing game but I don’t know if he can clear and it’s a mystery as to how he responds to competition that doesn’t just cave in. Not for me.

11. Speed Boat Beach - would love to see this one versus Tyler’s Tribe matchup on the dirt but for now this is what we get. Not for me on grass either.

12. The Platinum Queen - she beat older horses last out in the Prix de L’Abbaye (Gr I) while getting upwards of 21 pounds over soft turf on the Arc undercard. Is the morning line favorite but drawn on the far outside placing her outside the other main speeds which feels like a wide trip is coming. If she wins, we lose.

BC Juvenile Fillies Gr I $2000000 8.5f dirt 2yo fillies

1. Vegas Magic - Dull try last out after three good efforts. CA division seems like a soft group this year

2. You’re My Girl - set fast fractions in slop in the Frizette (Gr I) at BAQ last time, holding on gamely behind race favorite Chocolate Gelato in 2nd lifetime start. Rosario bails for Chop Chop (understandably) but Johnny V gets the call and IMO is talented and ready to move forward again around a second turn. She is our ⭐️⭐️⭐️ play of the day!

3. And Tell Me Nolies - has three consecutive narrow wins including a nice prep in the Chandelier (Gr I), but it’s telling that not many west coast fillies bothered making the trip East. We won’t lie, we are tossing her.

4. Sabra Tuff - for Dallas Stewart fans only…though a clunk up 3rd or 4th at 50-1 isn’t impossible with Paco

5. Wonder Wheel - Gafflione sent her hard to the lead from post one in the Alcibiades (Gr I), effectively winning the race by refusing to yield in the first turn. I’d expect that he won’t be seeking the lead again from a better post, likely be content to stalk You’re My Girl or whoever else wants to contest the pace. Can she get the jump on Chocolate Gelato and Chop Chop and hold them off?

6. Alma Rosa - mid-Atlantic filly just doesn’t look fast enough other than her last which was on a muddy track just three weeks ago.

7. Chop Chop - was good in the Alcibiades after breaking slow, weaving through the field and charging down the short stretch to just miss. Will she break better and not get shuffled back this time? She might go off as the over-bet favorite as every wiseguy ticket seems to be keying her but one run closers going two turns on the dirt at Keeneland has never been a particularly fruitful angle. Hard to ignore but no singletons.

8. Atomically - Girvin filly has been very good in S. Florida, she galloped in the stallion series stakes FSS My Dear Girl, at the beginning of October, after which she was a private purchase by Eclipse TB’s and will be first-time Pletcher/Saez Friday. This is a big step up but she has done nothing but improve and rates a punchers chance.

9. Grand Love - sent off at 1.06-1 in the Pocahontas (Gr III) after breaking her maiden first out at Saratoga, she set the pace before capitulating late. The figure for that race came back weak and it was a little bit of a surprise to see her entered in this spot off of that effort. Seems like she might try rating tactics after failing on the lead in her initial two turn try.

10. Chocolate Gelato - perhaps will be the favorite in here off of her Frizette (Gr I) score which followed up a huge maiden win at the Spa. Irad will likely have her lined up in a stalking position down the backside, the biggest issue might be ground loss from an outside post though she does possess tactical speed. A big contender whom a fast pace helps.

11. American Rockette - one run closer didn’t have the same closing punch in the slop at BAQ last out as she did in her Saratoga races. Her ceiling might be clunking up for a late closing third at a long price.

12. Shoplifter - I wish she had speed so I could say that she was gonna try to steal this. Super Saver filly was a great purchase last fall for 12k but it’s hard to conjure up much love for her here

13. Leave No Trace - chase mode last out after a less than stellar start, she might be better going two turns but Lezcano is gonna have to figure out a trip from the far outside post. If you don’t like the favorites make sure she is on your ticket

14. Raging Sea - ran well though green in the Alcibiades (Gr I) where she was DQ’ed for interference in the stretch, yet still only missed by a neck. Prat has a post 14 dilemma to solve and outside of gunning into that first turn, I’m not sure how she isn’t wide trip bound.

BC Juvenile Fillies Turf Gr I $1000000 1 mile 2yo fillies

1. Comanche County (Ire) - excellent purchase overseas, she found the Southern California turf to her liking, reeling off three straight, all at today’s 1 mile distance. Not sure of the quality of what she was beating (Surfer Girl Stakes (Gr III) ) but she wins races.

2. Cairo Consort - made big run in Natalma (Gr I) at Woodbine, gets rider change to Rosario, which might cause her to be a touch over-bet though she is not impossible.

3. Last Call - avoided trouble when taking down the Natalma (Gr I) at Woodbine as a maiden. Rider change to Dettori but we will fade here

4. Free Look - loomed in Miss Grillo (Gr II) but couldn’t get by Pleasant Passage. Contender though may be over-bet as she really isn’t any faster than half the field.

5. Pleasant Passage - Wired paceless Miss Grillo (Gr II), holding Free Look safe in the lane after a strong rally to break maiden first out at the Spa. Might be overlooked despite winning effort.

6. Be Your Best (Ire) - beaten fav in the Miss Grillo (Gr II) though was at mercy of slow pace. Should get realistic fractions to run into and is an upset possibility

7. Spirit Gal (Fr) - Chuck Fipke special has high speed for a Euro-invader. That overseas speed doesn’t always translate so hopefully Santana sends the improving Invincible Spirit (Ire) filly away from the gate, trying to be the speed of the speeds. Has a chance to lead them a long way and while we aren’t enamored of the idea of Ricardo Santana winning a BC grass race, the price will be right. Latest win in the Star Appeal stakes at Dundalk.

8. Manhattan Jungle (Ire) - seems like a cut below the other euros, perhaps she was sent here looking for firmer ground?

9. Delight - gifted the lead in the Jessamine Stakes (Gr II) and Saez never looked back. Instructions were to get her covered up in that race, so could rating be back on the menu? If this were a college hoops game, the crowd would be chanting “overrated” at her. She can win but will be underlay for sure.

10. Meditate (Ire) - top notch Coolmore filly tries turns after compiling strong record in Group I straight races in Ireland and England (Cheveley Park stakes (Gr I) ). O’Brien tabs his main rider Moore who figures to have her forwardly placed. Can’t ignore

11. G Laurie - adds blinkers after troubled trip, north of the border in the Natalma (Gr I), but more importantly gets the services of the best grass jockey on Earth, William Buick. Beware at long odds

12. Midnight Mile (Ire) - No Nay Never filly is 2 for 2 in the UK. Tries turns for the first time. Interesting that she took no money in either overseas start. Oh So Sharp stakes (Gr III) at Newmarket

13. Xigera - back to the grass for her and back to LeParoux who will need to be aggressive from post 13. IMO she is good enough to win but I still don’t like the logic of changing surfaces last out

14. Basil Martini (Ire) - speedy Irish filly draws terrible, leaving Johnny V to likely have to send to avoid being 5 wide throughout which might happen anyway

BC Juvenile Gr I $2000000 8.5 furlongs dirt 2 yo’s

1. Hurricane J - owns a pair of 6f wins in Kentucky but this isn’t a sprint and he has a lot of improving to do in order to even be semi-competitive

2. Congruent - Tapit colt won the off the grass Laurel Futurity a few weeks back but hasn’t ever run remotely fast enough to contend.

3. Cave Rock - the star of the Friday card and potentially a thorn in the side of CDI on the upcoming Derby Trail season considering his trainer is STILL banned from Churchill tracks through next year. Looked like Seattle Slew (sorta) mowing through the SoCal 2yo ranks this summer/fall. Likely to seize command on this group going into the first turn and it’s a fair question of whether he will see pressure or be uncontested on the lead. Either way he is the one to beat though if by some miracle the track is NOT playing fast or is deep, downgrade him a notch. American Pharoh (Gr I) at Santa Anita last out.

4. Forte - proved that his sloppy track Hopeful (Gr I) wasn’t a mud-aided fluke when he narrowly won a roughly run Breeders Futurity (Gr I) over the Keeneland surface early last month. Logical contender.

5. Verifying - might be Cox’s third or fourth best 2 yo colt. Not crazy about him or the Champagne Stakes (Gr I)

6. Blazing Sevens - big closing efforts on a sloppy track are ones that you are supposed to draw a line through and we will do that here

7. Wound Up - goes turf to dirt and stretches back out for McCarthy. Would be a surprise, to say the least, if he wound up outside of the back of the pack.

8. Lost Ark - Nest’s little bro, got a terrible trip in the Breeders Futurity, finding trouble on three separate occasions. If the pace gets heated…don’t be surprised if get gets a piece of the pie.

9. Curly Jack - tripped out and rode the bias last out in the Iroquois (Gr III). Fade for us

10. National Treasure - the ‘other Bob’ adds blinkers and Johnny V is back in the saddle. If Cave Rock slips up…

BC Juvenile Turf Gr I $1000000 1 mile 2yo’s

1. Victoria Road (Ire) - comes in on a three race winning streak, cuts back to mile from 9 furlongs in latest, from top connections and has to be strongly considered in a race where the Americans simply are not very good.

2. Packs A Wahlop - has good form coming in for Mullins/Mike Smith. Tactical speed to lay close and last fig was solid. Interesting US contender

3. Curly Larry and Mo - I like Shemp more than this one in here though he figures to send and keep the pace honest

4. Silver Knott (GB) - Chuck Appleby. Bill Buick. Firm turf euro. Best figures. Comes in off of Gr III win. Has tactical speed. Clearly the one to beat. If you don’t like to mingle…he might be your single. Here he is annexing the Solario Stakes (Gr III) earlier this year.

5. Battle of Normandy - could he shock the world after a dull try on a soft course that he may not have liked in his last? Love the rider change to Lezcano and using on deep tickets at a huge price. One start back he finished in front of Andthewinneris who will be among the favorites

6. Andthewinneris - improving sort that benefitted from super fast pace in the Bourbon (Gr II). Might get more of the same in this spot and while we aren’t crazy about him, this isn’t a strong race. Loses Prat but picks up Rosario

7. Really Good - is closer to sorta good. Benefitted from pace in last and still wasn’t all that good in that one

8. I’m Very Busy - Don’t see him having any more chance of winning as half the field and his price at 9/2 ML is way lower than we’d be looking for. Can he win? Yes but betting on improvement is a much better idea at a good price point.

9. Nagirroc - stretches out from turf sprints with mediocre figures. Perhaps he will improve in the slower paced race and can run faster numbers? He is going to have to. Should add to the pace.

10. Webslinger - won the Nownownow at Monmouth as a maiden earning decent number. Would normally fade but this is a weak group and he isn’t impossible if you are spreading deep.

11. Reckoning Force - won KD Juvenile stake with weak figure and followed it up with rough trip 7th over this course. Needs a lot of improvement and better luck

12. Mo Stash - is no Mo Bamba

13. Major Dude - took to grass in the Pilgrim (Gr II) albeit on a soft course. Didn’t run particularly fast and has a post position problem here. Hard to endorse

14. Gaslight Dancer - chances in first two turn race aren’t enhanced by drawing post 14

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