A Soggy Start to Oaks Day
Real Writing on Racing 💯
Weather is always on our minds in racing as with any game played outdoors, a factor that can be difficult to quantify even as its impact may be profound. With a strong possibility of wet track surfaces in mind, we are going to take a look at Friday’s Kentucky Oaks and several top class undercard races including a doozy of a La Troienne (Gr I), the rare grade 1 race going off before 1pm, featuring not one but two Eclipse award winners squaring off. (EDIT - Race 4 is off the grass today but everything else will stay on)
👀 So yesterday (Thursday) we were treated to rumors that something may be amiss with Kentucky Derby contender Honor Marie and that he might be scratched. Now after last years scratch-a-thon, that rumor grew legs as the day went on which forced me to briefly don my investigative reporter role to find out what’s actually happening. Unofficially (of course) the main Kentucky state regulatory vet had decided that he wasn’t satisfied with the way Honor Marie was traveling despite him displaying no other signs of lameness or distress. Other veterinarians who are familiar with the manner in which the colt travels (which to be fair is not ever going to be described using flowery prose… he doesn’t exactly flow BUT almost all horses without A+ conformation do not either) said that they saw no difference in his movement from the past, including the extensive vet checks this week. So in order to head off a potential scratch based strictly on opinion, the trainer ordered a series of X-rays done on the colt, all of which failed to reveal anything out of the normal. Apparently that wasn’t enough to quell the head veterinarian, so after some haranguing to get a rapid PET scan test scheduled, Honor Marie had that diagnostic evaluation done with a third party University scientist examining the results, which again revealed no abnormalities. As of Friday morning, the colt is still scheduled to run tomorrow but this entire scenario is unfair, it’s avoidable and it creates a problem that should be attacked instead of ignored. There is a ton of pressure on everyone including vets and horsemen, to ‘get this right’ in terms of soundness and safety and it’s beyond me why steps haven’t been taken by the KHRC and CDI and HISA and everyone else involved to use THE AVAILABLE TECHNOLOGY instead of simply relying on personal opinions of a horses physical status. A PET scan machine is available right across the street from the Churchill Downs backside and it baffles me as to why every Kentucky Derby contender isn’t required to undergo a preventative scan in the week leading up to the race? CDI makes enough money this weekend to construct $200 million paddock buildings that will mainly be used one weekend a year, surely they could invest a tiny fraction of the proceeds of the weekend to better ensure that the regulatory vets have actual data in hand when examining horses? It gives the trainers some level of comfort knowing that there isn’t an unseen micro fracture brewing that is very difficult to find any other way. It paints a picture of deterrence and responsibility for the industry and its organizations and importantly for those behind the scenes, it tempers the current ‘us against them’ mood that exists. The situation is untenable as is, God forbid anything were to happen to Honor Marie after the rumor mill has grinded the story up in a million different ways. Fingers would be pointed everywhere and while the blame assigned for the tragedy of a racing fatality isn’t comparable to the actual tragedy, mitigating the risk of it happened to the greatest degree possible is by far the best bet of the weekend. There are 366 days left till the 2025 Kentucky Derby which is plenty of time to make this happen.
📋 Here is a look at the pedigrees of all the fillies in the Oaks compliments of Equineline.com
🌎 Great piece here from Sid Fernando on Justify’s potentially historic weekend with major contenders in four Classic races across two continents.
💰 Barry’s RCNGhub Play of the Day for Friday May 3 at Churchill Downs. A ‘Get out’ special! 💵💵💵
La Troienne (Gr I) $1,000,000 4+F/M 1 1/16 dirt (Race 5)
Frosty O Toole - exits a race at OP where she ran her lifetime best race yet she still got beat in an allowance which isn’t nearly good enough SCRATCHED
Taxed - mostly ran evenly in the Apple Blossom (Gr I) when making little impact checking in a well beaten 5th. She may move up in her third race back off of a layoff but she’ll need to as the daughter of Collected appears to be a notch below the headliners in here. SCRATCHED
Free Like A Girl - an old school war horse, this daughter of obscure Louisana sire El Deal exits a solid third place effort in the Apple Blossom (Gr I) behind Adare Manor in her 38th career start. She actually has run better speed figures than she did last out and improvement gives her a punchers chance of getting a better check than you’d typically think she’d be in line for against this group.
Idiomatic - Last year’s Eclipse award winning older filly, the 5yo daughter of Curlin gamely captured the Breeders Cup Distaff in her last start back in November. A veritable win machine, she comes in to this having won 5 graded stakes in a row, the last 3 all being grade 1’s. Idiomatic does possess good early speed and you’d figure that she’ll have the lead and be able to dictate the pace though the three outside of her won’t be too far behind. Her figs are as good as you’d expect them to be and with the track playing very fast (prior to the rain) all week, she might be tough to reel in going 1 1/16.
Pretty Mischievous - last year’s champion 3yo filly makes her season’s debut here as well. The Godolphin homebred filly by Into Mischief, was scheduled to tackle Idiomatic in the BC Distaff but trainer Walsh wasn’t satisfied with her training at Santa Anita and scratched. She likes the Churchill surface obviously, as the winner of last year’s Kentucky Oaks, and she handles an off track with aplomb but she is gonna need a little help in the early pace department as she is more of a mid-pack stalking type. She was running 1.5 TG’s last summer which were very fast for 3yo fillies in the summer and you’d have to think that she can exceed that level, just don’t know if it’s going to be in this spot.
Xigera - she was streaking at the end of 2023 with three consecutive blowout stakes wins after being switched back to the dirt by Trainer Phil Bauer. Nyquist 4yo filly takes a step up in class here and her forwardly placed running style figures to put her right at Idiomatic’s flank heading down the backside. Will she be good enough to get past her and hold off the closers?
Dorth Vader - Another solid stakes filly making her 4yo debut, the daughter of Girvin threw a scare into Pretty Mischievous in last June’s Acorn (Gr I) before settling for 4th in the spill-marred Test in her last start at Saratoga. Tough spot for her as she wants to be forwardly placed but so does most of this field and she is drawn the widest of all.
Alysheba (Gr II) $750,000 4+ 1 1/16 dirt (Race 7)
Money Supply - Klaravich/Brown castoff had a 5 race win streak snapped when third in the New Orleans Classic (Gr III) last out. A solid midrange closer, the son of Practical Joke requires a quick early pace for success at this level and if this field stays intact, it appears that the fractions should be sufficient. See how the track is playing before wagering and if it’s a highway or the inside is no good, his chances should be downgraded.
Steal Sunshine - Hard knocking Constitution horse excels at Gulfstream and has had more success going one turn than today’s two turn distance. Another that is hoping for a swift early pace, should be able to get a decent trip under Paco but again a reminder to pay attention to the early races and if speed is golden, his task is tougher.
First Mission - Street Sense colt is a lot more erratic with his efforts than the typical Brad Cox runner. Was reported to be dull in training prior to the Pegasus World Cup (Gr I) where he bombed, but was tremendous in his comeback in the Essex (Gr III) winning by 5 and earning by far a lifetime top TG of -1.5. Figures to be forwardly placed laying close to expected pace setting Pipeline and needs to avoid getting caught up in rapid fractions. Will he bounce or has he moved to the level of being one of the top older horses in America? Answer that question correctly and you have solved the riddle of this race.
Call Me Fast - This gelding is one of those horses that runs good races and solid figs but never quite gets over the hump in graded stakes. He tuned up for this in an old school fashion by running in a sprint before stretching out here, where he like many others with a late running style, needs some help with the pace. Not crazy to believe that he can pick up some pieces late and get on the board at a long price.
Il Miracolo - Was in good form this winter in South Florida for a resurgent Sano barn. Very game when winning the Ghostzapper (Gr III) in his last, a race that featured a very slow pace that he attended. This race figures to set up in a different fashion and if he can sit a nice trip behind the speed, but ahead of the deeper closers, he may get lucky once again.
Tumbarumba - Another of the South Florida shippers, this gelded son of emerging sire Oscar Performance is a classic fighter with a record of 14-5-4-2 and of those nine first and second place finishes, seven were by a margin of less than 3/4’s of a length. Runs good figures and importantly has tactical ability which might be a key feature as he won’t let First Mission get out of his sight. Big chance at a nice price.
Tapit Trice - Tapit colt was a hot item on last years Derby trail, winning the Tampa Bay Derby (Gr III) and Bluegrass (Gr I) before finishing a non-threatening 7th in the Derby at 9-2. Ran 3rd in the Belmont (Gr I) and Travers (Gr I) wrapped around a dull 5th in the Haskell (Gr I) before being given the rest of his 3yo season off. He has consistently broken slow from the gate and his jockey has to stay active on him, pretty much the entire race, a self-imposed handicap. It will be interesting to see if he’s improved in those respects now returning off the long layoff and Irad takes the reins for the first time. He might be the “best” horse in this group but I’m gonna play against him at a short price unless speed is totally dead and I’m forced to reassess.
T O Saint Denis (Jpn) - All I can say is that he doesn’t appear to be in good form at the moment
Pipeline - Speightstown 6yo dominated an off-the-grass allowance at Keeneland for Cherie Devaux, but might find these waters a bit deeper. Should be on the lead as long as he can go but there looks to be enough others that want to be forwardly placed that stealing it may prove difficult.
Trademark - noted Churchill Downs lover (6-4-1-0) figures to get a little overbet here and I’m guessing from the outside post, Rosario might take him back to save ground in the first turn and I don’t see another scenario where he won’t lose ground. I know the record is gaudy but his Pegasus World Cup was awful and I’m willing to toss him here.
Kentucky Oaks (Gr I) $1,500,000 3yo fillies 1 1/8 (Race 12)
Tapit Janallie - Scratched
Gin Gin - My Dad will have a few bucks on this one because it’s my Mom’s name and honestly that’s probably the best reason to back her because she seems a little bit too slow (the horse, not my mom who is quick).
Where’s My Ring - reportedly jockey Jose Lezcano isn’t going to be able to ride due to lingering effects of a fall last weekend and will be replaced by JJ Castellano. Lezcano crafted out a perfect trip for her in a soft Gazelle (Gr III) and that won’t be easily replicated here. Needs to move up to win and I’m skeptical about that occurring.
Regulatory Risk - Originally scheduled to be scratched to get stablemate Ways and Means in because of the points situation, not crazy about her chances here as her biggest impact might be keeping Candied from drawing in off the also-eligible list.
Thorpedo Anna - Ken McPeek is a man that likes to race his horses and this filly has been an exception to that rule as he has handled her with kid gloves since November. She was tremendous in the Fantasy (Gr II) and a repeat of that effort makes her tough but she has always been on the outside of horses in the clear and there is a real possibility that she may wind up taking dirt if the outside fillies all leave the gate as strong as they figure to. That’s not an experiment I want to be part of at a relatively short price.
Lemon Muffin - will the real Lemon Muffin please stand up? Is it the filly who was sharp in victory in the Honeybee (Gr III) as a maiden or the one that was dull when nowhere in the Fantasy (Gr II)? I will pass on the muffin and take a bagel instead.
Fiona’s Magic - Bo Yates is an excellent horseman and has done wonders with many horses with less than fashionable pedigrees like this filly by St Patrick’s Day, who pulled off a major upset in the Davona Dale (Gr II) earlier this spring. However…she was terrible in her two turn debut in the GP Oaks (Gr II) and while I believe the excuse that she had a lung infections coming out of that race, her getting the 9 furlongs here is a real stretch. I have a feeling she’ll be weaving like she drank too much green beer at the top of the lane.
Tarifa - Improving Bernadini filly that took the Louisana route here, winning the Rachel Alexandra (Gr II) relatively easily (rekindling a controversy about late odds changes that continues to enflame veteran handicappers on a weekly basis) but gutted it out in the FG Oaks (Gr II) over a stubborn Our Pretty Woman. She is temperamental and that’s a concern considering the huge crowd and unusual number of distractions on a day like Kentucky Oaks day but she figures to get a excellent trip under Prat, Cox usually operates a conveyer belt to the winners circle in Kentucky, she is getting better and the distance should be perfect. I changed my mind from earlier in the week, I now have her listed as the one to beat.
Everland - An astute claim by Foster this past winter at Turfway, the Arrogate filly makes her dirt debut here and while it takes a little imagination to come up with her, she has improved since the claim, the distance and lively pace should be in her favor and she will be a huge price. I’m not even trying to convince you to use her but she isn’t quite as impossible as she looks at first glance.
Into Champagne - Ian Wilkes trained horses generally don’t show a whole lot of early speed but this Into Mischief filly has been consistently fast since her debut back in June. I’m skeptical that she really wants 9 furlongs though and it’s touch to decipher what manner of trip they will be looking for with a lot of potential speed horses lined up outside her.
Ways and Means - IMO she is as talented as anyone in this field but her entire abbreviated, three year old campaign seems a little rushed from a trainer that generally doesn’t push the envelope. Practical Joke filly has also been the victim of bad racing luck in two of her three starts, likely preventing her from entering this race undefeated. Nonetheless I’m not convinced that 9 furlongs is really her thing at this point and she is another who may wind up with either a wide trip in the clear or potentially find herself in an uncomfortable position behind horses, taking kickback. Certainly working up a storm and if Gafflione can figure out a decent trip, she is good enough to win but I’m probably gonna fade her and lets the chips fall where they may.
Power Squeeze - As unlucky as Ways and Means has been, this Union Rags filly has had quite good fortune her last two outings. In the Suncoast at Tampa, she hugged the rail and took advantage of heavy favorite Life Talk just not showing up before running down Ways and Means in the GP Oaks (Gr II) while getting a smooth journey as that one slugged it out pressing the pace while 4 wide down the backstretch run. She has a habit of winning, which is never a bad thing, and if the early fractions are fast, look for Danny Centeno to have her motoring home at another square price.
Just F Y I - 2023 juvenile filly eclipse award winner (by scorching hot sire Justify) after taking down the Frizette (Gr I) and BC Juvy Filly (Gr I) and ending her season 3 for 3. Had a setback when scratched from the Davona Dale (Gr II ) when she spiked a fever on race day but Mott went to plan B which was a start in the Ashland (Gr I ) where she lost her undefeated record but gained valuable fitness with a solid runner up finish despite a wide trip. That race signified a new lifetime top TG for her and she seems to be training great coming into the Oaks. If Alvarado can work out even a decent trip for her from post 12, you’d have to give her a solid chance to get the job done.
Leslie’s Rose - rebounded off of a mediocre try in her first stakes action in the Davona Dale (Gr II) to ace her two turn exam in the Ashland (Gr I) parlaying an excellent trip into a grade 1 victory. Irad has his work cut out trying to figure out how to save some ground with the daughter of Into Mischief from the far outside with speed on both sides of him. I’m a fan of the filly, I’m not a fan of her chances in this spot.
Our Pretty Woman - Medaglia d’Oro filly is a late arrival to the stakes scene as she didn’t debut till January and has only competed in one stakes, a bang up second place finish behind Tarifa in the FG Oaks (Gr II). She has led in her last two starts and if she is to get to the front in here, newly inducted Hall of Famer Joel Rosario is going to have to utilize his best gate skills from post 14.
Candied - It’s unfortunate that this Candy Ride filly isn’t likely to get a chance to compete because she’d be the strongest deep closer of the bunch and with the troubled trip 4th in the Ashland (Gr I) under her belt, she would have been dangerous in here.
Back by popular demand: A Kentucky Oaks Conversation with Mike Mutnansky of the MUTSTACK (which you should subscribe to)
2024 Kentucky Oaks
1 1/8 MILES
Post Time 5:57 EST
1. Tapit Jenallie (30-1) Mut: There is a lot of talent in this Oaks group (and on the AE List) and no disrespect to the connections, but this one from the rail seems too slow. Should be every bit of that 30-1.
Chuck: I love the draw for this Tapit filly who should be able to save ground early and commence a late rally behind what figures to be a strong early pace. Complete rookies for human connections as Milligan came into the CD meet with zero starts there and Esquivel isn’t a regular but she is one of the bombs that I think can crash the party and get on the board at a crazy price
Love it. A price push right out of the gate. (Bad break for the connections and Chuck, the horse is scratched.)
2. Gin Gin (30-1)
Mut: Super Trainer™️ Brad Cox likely to have jockey Geroux take back and make one run and hope for the best. Owns a win at CD and on a wet track, in case we get one Friday.
Chuck: This filly really had no excuse in a relatively soft prep at the Big A and despite Super Trainer Bradley Cox’s prolific win rate in Kentucky, my tickets will feature no Gin Gin’s.
3. Where's My Ring (15-1)
Mut: Pace player has been a different horse with blinkers. Likely involved early but faces better today than she's met in her last three or four starts. Like you said Chuck, not a great rendition of the Gazelle.
Chuck: Good points. She got the trip of trips under a perfect ride by Jose Lezcano who will be trying to recreate something similar with Fiona’s Magic and at least one of the fillies with tactical speed drawn outside, likely to set a lively pace. She will have to be better and while it’s possible, she feels a notch below the best here.
4. Regulatory Risk (20-1)
Mut: One more from the Gazelle. Blinkers come off here but not one of those classic "Other Chads" that I'm worried beats me in the Oaks.
Chuck: She might be in here more to keep AEs Our Pretty Woman and Candiedout than anything, as the original plan seemed to be to skip the race and allow stablemate Ways and Means to get in off the bubble. That said she is pretty mediocre for this class of race.
Excellent point. There is some talent on that AE list.
5. Thorpedo Anna (5-1)
Mut: Very nice return win in the Fantasy albeit with a good trip. Reportedly working well and hoping she gets forgotten at the windows with other bigger names in here. Win contender for me.
Chuck: The list of two-turn, graded winners on the dirt by her sire Fast Anna has one name on it, Thorpedo Anna. She was very, very good in the Fantasy and a repeat of the performance probably puts her in the winner’s circle. However, McPeek reportedly only gave her one prep because she isn’t a robust filly and I’m a little wary of one great prep fillies, plus I’m a route distance truther and until she actually gets the 9f, I will remain skeptical.
6. Lemon Muffin (30-1)
Mut: I never get these D. Wayne Lukas bombs right. Did no running in the the Fantasy. Just the one fast race and that field has not come back running. Not for me. Bigger price than Oaks' winner Lemon's Forever? (47-1)
Chuck: I’m more of a blueberry muffin guy to be honest and you aren’t alone in never hitting with D. Wayne longshot stabs. If she wins, I won’t.
7. Fiona's Magic (30-1)
Mut: There is nothing that says she wants to go the 9F. A likely leader into the first turn and just as likely to finish dead last in the group. Pass.
Chuck: Agreed! She should serve up a quick pace but that’s likely where her impact on this race ends.
8. Tarifa (7/2)
Mut: Obvious contender and likely favorite. Fast and consistent. Enough speed to be involved early. BUT...a little keen early and I wonder how she'll react to the big field and crowd. From the Super Trainer™️ after her FG Oaks win. " “She’s still learning to settle. She stays on and has a pedigree to keep going,” Cox said. “We’ve got six weeks. We’ll regroup and see how’s she’s taken it. She’s going to have to settle more, the larger field, bigger crowd. She’s got some stuff to work on.” A real issue Mr. Former Trainer?
Chuck: I prefer retired trainer, former sounds like I got kicked out of the club. Nervous fillies are perhaps at their biggest disadvantage on days like Oaks Day when there is a lot of commotion on the backside, the walk over is in front of a crowd of rowdies and the paddock is packed to the brim. Add in NBC cameras and drones flying overhead and you have a lot of triggers for Tarifa. Those worries aside, she is a talented filly who is getting better incrementally plus she has tactical speed and the distance should be within her scope. However, at 7/2 she’s not nearly as appealing because of her possible behavioral issues.
9. Everland (30-1)
Mut: Has never raced on dirt. The two recent dirt works look slow. I guess with the best TFUS late pace number, just try and make one run and crash the Super Hi-5 Pool. No thanks.
Chuck: Yeah making her dirt debut in the KY Oaks and combined with her trainer only winning 5% lifetime at CD makes Everland a stretch.
10. Into Champange (30-1)
Mut: Another in here that has flashed early speed but is unlikely to get the distance based on past performance. Looking forward to betting her when she cuts back in distance next time.
Chuck: She figures to be part of the pace but as you stated, her pedigree doesn’t exactly scream more distance, she may have been better served trying the Eight Belles (race 9) for 3-year-old fillies going 7f. I shall pass as well.
11. Ways and Means (5-1)
Mut: Has been a star in the making since debut. Weird trip at Gulfstream and now coming in off a work that might have been “too fast.” Brimming with talent but is always overbet. Doesn’t feel like she’s following the usual Chad Brown program. Admittedly don’t love her chances here. Famous last words trying to beat Chad.
Chuck: The “too fast” works are funny to me as trainers try to micromanage everything these days, but the reality is that fast horses working fast is rarely an issue. Her problem is inexperience as she has one two-turn race which also happens to be her only race in 7 months as well. What does she want to do? Can she rate behind horses and take dirt or will she wind up wide as she has in all of her races? This is a very hard race to win if she can’t save some ground at some point.
Mut: She is the hardest read for me in a field where I think 5 or 6 can win.
12. Power Squeeze (12-1)
Mut: Has been better since stretching out. Price will be right and has run fast enough to be in the mix, but I'll be using underneath only. Can't imagine she's able to recreate that awesome Oaks trip where she beat Ways and Means.
Chuck: As unlucky as Ways and Means has been in her brief career, Power Squeeze has been fortunate. She took advantage of the mishaps of Ways and Means last out when running her down late to win the Gulfstream Park Oaks which followed up a perfect rail skimming trip in the Suncoast at Tampa. She draws poorly here though and Danny Centeno is gonna have his work cut out for him trying to work out a ground-saving trip from there. She does appear to be bred to handle the extra distance and more importantly, she wins, so I’d include her in exotics despite the wide draw
13. Just F Y I (9/2)
Mut: I thought that comeback effort in the Ashland was solid. Off the pace on a day four of the five dirt winners were on the lead. Can be involved early and make her own trip. Trainer Bill Mott 22% with this type of layoff on the dirt the last three years. Working well coming in and a real threat to take this thing at a fair price.
Chuck: She is as solid as they come and agree on the comeback in the Ashland after the late scratch due to a fever at GP interrupted Mott’s planned season debut. Seems like she is still getting better and if she had drawn better, I might make her my selection in here, but post 13 is tricky and a wide trip sure seems possible. That run to the first turn will be a doozy
14. Leslie's Rose (4-1)
Mut: Another with a big shot in here. Similar to Just F Y I - but was that win over that one in the Ashland her ceiling? Could end up wider than that one too, depending on the break. Now that I look at it, the break for these will be big for their chances and likely impact the rest of the field's chances. Win candidate.
Chuck: Yes she got a great trip in the Ashland that is very likely to be repeated Friday. What is so interesting about this years Oaks is the race to the first turn from the outside 4-5 horses as they all seem to want to be forwardly placed and they can’t all be in the perfect stalking spot. Someone is going to get hung out to dry and Leslie’s Rose may be the one. Clearly has the ability to win, difficult to determine how she gets there.
ALSO ELIGIBLE (Will need scratches to get in)
15. Our Pretty Woman (15-1) - IN
Mut: We've mentioned the talent here on the AE list. Not only talented, if this one gets in it will inject even more pace into this race. The post would not scare me away but the running style in this field and other speed might. Likely to be a factor in this division all summer but hard to use in this spot.
Chuck: I love AEs as they often wind up overlays as people don’t even realize they are in the race. Our Pretty Woman drawing in would add to the scramble to the first turn for sure though I’m not sure that she can clear the others, she can help brew up a swift pace.
16. Candied (20-1)
Mut: Given all the pace signed on here and this deep closers' running style, a real player if she finds her way into this race. A little slow on speed figs but the distance should be no issue. Against the track last time would player a player in here. Surpsied the connections didn't try and get two preps in to make sure she qualified. Did she miss training time?
Okay Chuck - your longshot scratched. How are you going to bet this race?
Chuck: Yep, I’m gonna change course and key Tarifa in exactas top and bottom with Just FYI/Power Squeeze/Ways and Means/Where’s my Ring and Our Pretty Woman. Also key her on top in tri’s with those in second and all in the third spot.
Mut: I like it. The #15 getting in has to juice this pace up and for that reason, I’ll take #5 Thorpedo Anna at anywhere near her ML 5-1. 5-13-8-11…and I’ll use your #3 as a price with those. But keying off #5.