A Pseudo Pegasus?

Real Writing on Racing 💯

One of the most underrated sports happenings is when a star player on the opposing teams court gets serenaded with chants of “overrated, overrated, overrated” regardless of how well or poorly the targeted foe is playing. As a taunt, little can surpass thousands of people trying to get under your skin by being clever, not crude. While it’s doubtful that the racing fans that congregate in Hallandale Saturday afternoon are going to start any chants, it sure feels like “overrated” would be on point if they did during the post parade for, at best, the second weakest $3 million dollar race in history.

The Pegasus World Cup was launched in 2017 by morphing the traditional Donn Handicap, a key early season race for older dirt horses, into a ‘pay-to-play’ event. The plan was individual horse owners would each put up $1 million dollars per slot (with 12 starting gate spots available) and not only be racing for a $12 million dollar purse but be stakeholders in the entirety of the race (including a % of handle and media rights) with a complicated profit sharing formula. It was actually a bold plan with a concept that has merit (The Everest in Australia and the Mohawk Million, a trotting race in Canada, were both created using the Pegasus prototype) but to be fair, the original design was doomed from the start because the market forces that dictate the modern racing world are too strong to overcome.

First was finding 12 horses, in January, good enough to compete in this quality of race. The thought process was attract top horses heading to stud to make one last pit stop on their way to central Kentucky. However, even under that scenario, finding owners that were willing to “bet” $1,000,000 to be a longshot in any race, $12 million dollar purse or otherwise, proved to be an impossible task. The second was the unexpected creation of the Saudi Cup to be run four weeks after the Pegasus for a $20,000,000 purse and all expenses paid. Nothing is more modern day racing than outfits drowning any moral or ethical struggles about traveling to an despotic nation to compete for an Olympic-sized pool of cash. The best returning horses are now regularly choosing the Middle East (Saudi or Dubai) over South Beach.

What we have this year is a $3,000,000 ‘B team’ race (though last year’s showdown between Life is Good and Knicks Go was a clash of two A-listers) with two other perhaps ‘B team’ grass races, the Pegasus Turf and Pegasus FM Turf. Yet the reality is this day hasn’t been that impactful in terms of end of the year awards, it often chiefly serves as a coronation for one horse’s prior season. Thus far in its history, only Knicks Go was able to capture an Eclipse the year of winning the Pegasus World Cup. Interestingly the Pegasus Turf had instant success with inaugural winner Bricks and Mortars winning Turf champion and Horse of the year during his 2019 Pegasus season but there hasn’t been a strong group since. Though to be fair the past few years have been dark days for the older American turf division with a thin group of mostly ordinary horses taking turns beating each other outside of being mauled by whoever Charlie Appleby ships stateside.

North American based grass older horses mustered up just 5 votes from 248 cast for 2022 North American champion Male Turf horse

The FM Pegasus Turf was added last year as a Grade 3 replacing the Marsha’s River and it’s only winner is top mare Regal Glory who dusted a suspect group on her way to an Eclipse-worthy season (full disclosure- if I had a vote I’d have used it on War Like Goddess but Regal Glory would have gotten a long look). However there don’t appear to be any Regal Glory’s in this years second running, a competitive group but it seems like a couple of the best runners may be heading to the shed afterwards.

Should Pegasus Day be treated like a day of deity by 1st Racing and the racing world? Do regulars feel like this is an event worthy the hyperbole that surrounds it? Most if not all of our other big race days are anchored by a Classic race, a semi-Classic (Travers) or the Breeders Cup. Yes we have big BC preview days at Keeneland, Belmont and Santa Anita. Pacific Classic day is a good one. Many of the excellent Spring cards are in support of Derby preps (OP, FG, SA, AQU, GP) which have tradition and are fueled in part by Kentucky Derby fever. Perhaps I’m just being curmudgeonly but I fail to see the importance of Pegasus Day outside of having an excellent betting card during a period of the year where we don’t get a whole lot of those. $125 to get in the door seems like A LOT for a B team lineup of stakes races with first post before 11am. $160 for a Silks Simulcast carrel is quite a bit considering Friday and Sunday it’s less than 10% of that number. If you wanna be with the fancy pants people in the track level bar/club Carousel, it will run you $499. Ten Palms dining room offers a buffet and various table locations that will run you anywhere between $580 and $1500 per person. A third floor suite is reported to be $25,000 for the day. The refrain often stated defending this pricing (not just at Gulfstream) is that other sporting events are expensive too. However you can get in the door with an upper level seat to the Miami Heat game on Pegasus eve for $40 or get excellent tickets 15 rows from center court for $269. What is generally left unsaid when that defense is rolled out is that the NBA doesn’t need it’s patrons to bet a single dollar for its bottom line, we do. Every dollar spent on an expensive seat or a $20 drink or $12 hamburger is not being wagered into the pools, but instead flows into the coffers of tracks which rarely use them to improve their racing product. Even the Breeders Cup was originally designed to move around the country so that fans in different regions would get a chance to see the best horses compete at their local track. These days a regular guy might need to sell his car just to get in the door, let alone get a seat somewhere.

I say this as a person who has attended every Pegasus day since it’s inception and has never had to pay a penny to get in. Yet if the only ‘Big Day’ features that exist around an event are it’s high ticket prices and ridiculously early first post, should we really feel the same way about it as we do other big days? Plus be aware that the vast majority of people that will offer unwavering support for the concept are also unlikely to be paying those prices (“insiders”) and/or don’t bet (more than a nominal amount). Now don’t get the message confused, I’m not anti-Pegasus World Cup day, it’s a really good betting card, only two Tapeta races, nice field sizes with but a single excessive delay (an hour between the Pegasus Turf and World Cup) and having a reason to migrate down to South Florida in January is a no-brainer but still…is it just heading down the road of being a ‘fake big day’ unworthy of the hype (and excessive expense) or are we already there?

---

In honor of the Pegasus Pick 3 combining the three races together (good idea) though at normal takeout rate (bad idea) and a ludicrously low “guaranteed pool” of $350k (the 2022 pick 3 pool ending with the PWC was $530k) we will do a quick preview of the races.

Pegasus WC F/M Turf Invitational (Gr III) $500,000 8.5f

1. Artie’s Princess - 6 yo mare has had a nice career as a synthetic track sprinter but was unsuccessful in her only grass try, two and a half years ago. Appreciate connections taking a shot but hard to endorse.

2. Dalika (Ger) - she found herself in career form last summer as a 6 year old, winning the Grade I Beverly D over the beleaguered Churchill grass course, backing that form up in the Ladies Turf (Gr III) at Kentucky Downs then again in the Cardinal (Gr III). She does her best running on the lead and the presence of Artie’s Princess and Queen Goddess may force Brian Hernandez's hand early though the GP turf is kinder to speed than most. This is her final start as she is going to be bred later this spring.

3. Wakanaka (Ire) - was last spotted winning the finale on Breeders Cup day, the Fall Harvest stakes defeating both of todays race favorites, Dalika (Ger) and Shantisara (Ire). Ran in this race last year off a long layoff and wasn’t a factor though handled the course fine when second behind Eclipse finalist, In Italian (GB) in the Honey Fox (Gr III). I have heard some talk lately about how poorly Rosario is riding but I’d be willing to bet that he’s a lot sharper in these stakes than midweek maiden claimers. Have to give this mare a big chance in here though I’m not positive that the morning line price will hold up.

4. Sweet Enough (GB) - prepped for this by eating up a NW2x event though that was her first move forward in the US and her figs are super slow for this level. Respect Attfield but this seems like a tough spot for her.

5. Mona Stella - Scratched

6. Queen Goddess - McCarthy doesn’t show up at GP with an empty wagon, of his 5 starts in Hallandale he has three wins including City of Light in the PWC (Gr I) and Ce Ce who won the Princess Rooney (Gr II) twice. One of his “losses” was a third in the PWC (Gr I) with Independence Hall behind Knicks Go. Expect this Empire Maker mare to be ready to fire and with her tactical speed, she should be in a good position if she can improve just a touch as her TG figs are just slightly slower than the other contenders. Adding Saez and dropping 4 pounds doesn’t hurt either.

7. Lady Rockstar (GB) - was subjected to a very wide trip in her latest, a runner up finish in the Suwannee River (Gr III) on New Year’s Eve. She is competitive with these on her best, though she might want a bit more ground, loses Irad and Walsh has been off to a slow start at the Championship meet (19-1-4-1). Would benefit greatly from a super fast early pace and a ground saving trip but neither is guaranteed here.

8. Justify My Love (Brz) - seems in tough spot for her 2023 debut. Deep closers are often at a disadvantage over this grass course and she would need a complete pace meltdown it seems.

9. Shantisara (Ire) - when she is on her ‘A game’ she is just plain better than these however she hasn’t been on that level very often since arriving in the US from France. Both her best TG figs (by far) were over a less than firm track which is unlikely for this race. Irad chooses her, Brown does well at GP/off of layoffs and clearly she can win but her price is likely to be unappealing plus this may be a touch shorter than her best distance.

Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Wakanaka (Ire)

Pegasus WC Turf Invitational (Gr I) $1,000,000 9f

1. Wit - Pletcher has won this race before with a newly turned 4yo like Wit, though the son of Practical Joke has more credentials at this point of his career than the recently retired, 2x winner of the PWCT, Colonel Liam did. Draws the rail so should be able to save ground around the first turn but the question mark is will there be enough pace to enhance his closing kick and can Jose Ortiz find clearance in the stretch? If he is around his 8-1 morning line he is eminently usable.

2. Good Governance (GB) - this 7yo son of Kingman was plucked out of the Keeneland November sale for 50k and ran well in his first start away from the Chad Brown barn, finishing a fast closing 4th in the Ft Lauderdale (Gr II) on Dec 31. He doesn’t race much, that was only his 10th career start but he has run numbers good enough to be very competitive in this group. The low percentage connections will just add to the price though a horse with his style always needs a little extra luck finding room at GP.

3. Atone - 6yo still looking for his first stakes win is coming off easy lead, wire to wire score at Aqueduct in an allowance race going this distance. Was a one paced 4th in this race last year though that field might have been slightly tougher than this one. I’d expect Irad to send hard to the lead from the start and see if they leave him alone on the lead. Interesting stat is DRF has Maker only winning at 6% in graded stakes from his last 94 attempts though BRIS has him at 11% in 409 starts.

4. Hurricane Dream (Fr) - French import makes US debut for Motion who is 0-13 with first time N. America shippers, though BRIS has him at 13% from a sample size of 38. Classy sort that kept good company overseas, his one run closing style puts him at a disadvantage at Gulfstream with the expected weak pace setup. He has mostly run on soft ground though he did perform well on a firm course as a 4yo. Gets Dettori who rode him in Germany last September, just missing in a grade 2 going a mile. At a track other than GP, I’d rate him an excellent chance to beat these but despite the question marks, at the 15-1 morning line he is worth a few bucks.

5. One More Bid - California shipper is only a race past breaking his maiden. Won a weak stakes at Santa Anita last out and does possess tactical speed but needs to really improve again to get on the board in here.

6. Lady Speightspeare - makes her swan song (has a date with Gun Runner later this spring) trying to beat the boys and add another grade 1 to her already impressive resume. Exits a huge run at 32-1 when a close third in the BC FM Turf, Saez producing her up the inside at Keeneland to put a scare into Eclipse finalist In Italian (GB) before being overhauled late by Euro shipper Tuesday. She has been in excellent form since last summer, gets a nice 5 pound weight break, has good tactical speed which is always important over this course. Her TG figs are right there with the main contenders, you can expect Attfield to have her ready to roll and Saez fits her well. As Hermis used to say in the old school DRF, ignore at your own peril.

7. Speaking Scout - put in three solid runs when blinkers were removed after a premature run and fade at Kentucky Downs in September. Will need continued improvement as his top TG is a 5.75 which won’t get it done here but these three year olds turning four often keep getting better. That he just won a grade 1 race by barely shading a 6 TG and has a fighting chance in an older horse grade 1 shows the weakness of American turf races, at least on the male side of the equation. For Paco fans.

8. Who’s the Star - an absolute stone-cold, one run closer comes into this on a three race graded stakes winning streak over the synthetic track at Woodbine. Needs an absolute pace meltdown to get real involved here and I just don’t see that happening.

9. Decorated Invader - hasn’t won a stakes since July of 2020 but was just second to City Man in the Ft Lauderdale. Got an excellent stalking trip in that race over a speed favoring course and Alvarado may find it more difficult to get good position this time. He could win this with a fortunate trip, I just don’t think I will be backing him.

10. Ivar (Brz) - the favorite who has had an excellent career despite not racing very often. Has the fastest figs (TG 0.75-0-2.5 last 3) and has been keeping the best of company, as his last 3 races have all been $1 million + Grade 1’s. He loomed in the BC Mile, actually taking the lead inside the 1/16th pole before being overhauled by the deep closers including US male Turf champion Modern Games (who would be 2-5 in here). A few considerations you should make prior to taking a short price here is he hasn’t won a graded stakes since 2020, he has never won at the distance and his style isn’t perfect for this course. It won’t be shocking if he wins but it also won’t be a surprise if he doesn’t. Proceed with caution.

11. Master Piece (Chi) - makes first start for Joesph after being overmatched in the Breeders Cup Turf. Is another closer that might find the absence of pace an issue though is 3 for 3 going 9 furlongs. Better chance that Master Piece’s (Chi) owner wins the Pegasus costume contest than his horse wins this race.

12. City Man - NY bred might be on a 5 race winning streak had he not stumbled leaving the gate in a driving rainstorm closing day at Saratoga in the Bernard Baruch (Gr III). I sound like a broken record but another that can win the race but needs some good fortune and may be an underlay as well. I’m probably going to try to beat him.

Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Lady Speightspeare

Pegasus WC Invitational (Gr I) $3,000,000 9f dirt

1. Proxy - got his first stakes win last out with a hard fought score in the grade 1 Clark, albeit a very weak edition of that Thanksgiving weekend Churchill staple (which was downgraded for the 2023 season btw). He laid closer to the pace than he usually does which was due to the lack of early speed in that race, an issue that this one isn’t suffering from. He has paired TG 0 and has room to move forward. Against the top of the 2022 division he’d get nothing but hot and dirty however most of that group has moved along and the Brady bunch left is more Greg than Tom. I don’t love him but forgive me if you’ve heard this before…he has a shot.

2. Simplification - did you know that trainer Antonio Sano was kidnapped twice back in his native Venezuela? Well if you watch the NBC coverage (not for me, I’m a track feed guy), I’m sure they will mention it for the 746th time. He got caught wide both turns last out in the Harlan’s Holiday and actually earned a lifetime top on TG with a 0.75 but I have questions about him going 9 furlongs, IMO he is best suited to shorter trips. Perhaps if he shows that the longer trip isn’t his thing, they will cut him back to one turn races where I believe he will thrive.

3. Ridin with Biden - he was my play of the day on Pennsylvania Derby day, a loose leader in a marathon at 8-1 (despite rumors to the contrary, not my last winner). He has won two minor stakes in his last two starts, both at Parx and he does have tactical speed but Paco jumps off and Bensalem figs are often inflated by ground loss…the rail is usually bad…he would be a huge surprise.

4. White Abarrio - hated him in the Kentucky Derby coming out of perfect trip Florida Derby (last 1/8 in 14 seconds) and he has been erratic and not all that good since. Rallied mildly up the rail in the Cigar Mile (Gr. 1) (I don’t see any evidence that the rail wasn’t good that day as it’s been said in some corners) but that wasn’t exactly Forty Niner or Congaree he was facing in that spot. If he wins, I lose.

5. Defunded - Baffert rarely ships to Gulfstream but one of his more recent eastward ventures was sending the pretty ordinary (by Baffert standards) Mucho Gusto to South Florida to cruise in the 2020 running of this race. He has knocked off the SoCal older horses twice in a row with aggressive tactics, which I fully expect Irad Ortiz to employ. He isn’t all that fast, his TG are subpar for this level and he will undoubtedly be overbet (no chance at 6-1 ML) but it sure feels like he is a major player here.

6. Art Collector - it seems like a million years ago when he was a pandemic Derby trail darling. What he seems to be these days is a horse who loves Charlestown and not sure what else. Has been a need the lead type and I don’t know if he can get to the front here under new rider, Junior Alvarado. Was announced in October to be heading to Claiborne Farm at the conclusion of his racing career, though he is not currently listed on the farms stallion lineup on their website, On his best day he is a solid contender, we just haven’t seen his best non-bullring day in a while.

7. Skippylongstocking - has run two huge races surrounding a poor one in his last three outings. TG of -1 is as good as it gets for this crew but last time he ran a giant figure (in the West Virginia Derby), he bounced badly next out. He matched that figure in the Harlan’s Holiday and playing him at a short price isn’t advisable. Not a guarantee that he will bounce to the moon but I’d bet regression before I’d bet he runs that sort of race again.

8. Get Her Number - Was surprised to see his name in the entries as his past two turn races weren’t good at all. I bet him in the Cigar Mile (because I thought he’d get a perfect trip and was against the other favorites plus he was 8-1) and felt that he hung at the distance as much as Mind Control held him off. Now we are adding a turn and another 1/8. Saez sticks here interestingly but I can’t like him at 9 furlongs.

9. Last Samurai - the last charge of the old guys brigade. D. Wayne is chasing past glory (plus cash) and adding Frankie Dettori to the mix on this horse who is battling the weight of karma after his owners fired his previous trainer directly after winning a million dollar race…with this horse. If Last Samurai wins a three million dollar race…it’s proof the Gods of racing have left the building.

10. Cyberknife - One last try for this guy, who is already hotter in the breeding shed than he is on the racetrack…and he hasn’t covered a single mare yet. Retired after a close second in the Breeders Cup Mile, plans were announced for him to stand at Spendthrift farm in 2023 for $35k, with just this one last racing target to knock off. Reportedly he is so popular as a first year son of the vaunted Gun Runner, seasons to him are trading for close to double his announced fee. Multiply that out by oh 175-200 or so covers and it’s easy to see why breeding is shoving racing to the side. He is the best of this group despite only having three stakes wins, none since July. Being honest he is lone horse in the bunch that was consistently competitive at the sports highest levels last year. His trainer has been white hot lately, Cyberknife is the fastest horse and those were three year old numbers that should improve. We won’t get the chance to see if he could or would after Saturday so this will close the book on him. Post 10 is no joke at GP in 9 furlong races and he figures to be hung wide on at least one turn, perhaps both. Maybe Geroux sends him hard out of the gate to try to grab a stalking position without losing too much ground in the first turn but danger looms there if he gets stacked up 4 or 5 wide. Too bad he is worth more not racing because it would be interesting to see what he would have become as a more mature 4 year old.

11. Stiletto Boy - his only win in a year and a half was a 4 horse race on a speed biased track where he got a clear lead. Was a clunk up third in this race last year and sure the top two would destroy this group, but this trip is likely to be a lot trickier from post 11 than it was from post 3.

12. O’ Conner - (Chi) - should be an Irish horse with that name. Looked great winning perfect trip US debut but was dull 4th in the Harlan’s Holiday in his latest though nobody gained much ground on the early leaders in that race. Post 12 is challenging and JJ Castellano has to avoid the wide trip blues yet not give him too much to do as well. Tough assignment.

Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Defunded

---

Mat-Boy (Arg) - The best horse in America…but not for long

The curious case of Mat-Boy (Arg) would play out much differently these days. He was a terror in Argentina in 1983, destroying the competition when winning all 6 of his races by an average of 12 lengths. Shipped to America, as he had no competition left in South America, he showed up in February of 1984 in the entires of the Widener Handicap (Gr I), the biggest race for older horses at Hialeah. Ridden by Jorge Valdivieso, his Argentine jockey who traveled to keep the mount, he dusted the American runners by 3 1/2 lengths despite not having had a race in over 4 months which was almost unheard of for those times. The final time for the 10 furlongs was 1:59.4, only a tick off of Bald Eagle’s track record set 24 years prior in the same race.

In the New York Times story about the Widener, Steve Crist wrote:

“Mat Boy broke alertly from the outside post and stalked the leaders from third place down the backstretch. With one sudden move, he accelerated past Reinvested entering the stretch turn, then caught World Appeal with a quarter of a mile to go. The early fractions were on the slow side, so the leaders were not tired. But Mat Boy whisked by them as much the best.

''He is the best horse in 20 years in Argentina,'' said Valdivieso, a 26- year-old who rode his first race in this country only three days ago.”

A month later at Gulfstream (Hialeah had the “early dates” back then and raced before GP opened up) he was entered in the Gulfstream Park Handicap (Gr I).

Here is what Crist wrote about that race:

“Mat Boy, the Argentine sensation who almost broke a Hialeah Park track record in his North American debut last month, was even more impressive today as he set a track record while winning the $144,500 Gulfstream Park Handicap by 12 lengths.

The applause from the stands began at the top of the stretch, as Mat Boy collared Lord Darnley and began to draw away with each stride as his rider continued to use the whip. Now racing against only the clock, the 5-year-old chestnut horse stopped the Teletimer in 1:59 for a mile and a quarter, one-fifth faster than Sensitive Prince's record, set in 1979.

Mat Boy, whose victories in the Widener Handicap last month at Hialeah and today have stamped him the top older horse in training, paid $2.60 for $2 to win as the heavy favorite in a field of seven. Lord Darnley was the distant runner-up, with Courteous Majesty 3 1/2 lengths back in third place and 1 1/4 lengths ahead of Indian Lei.

Mat Boy, an Argentine-bred son of Matun and Boyera, is trained by Armando Bani and was ridden by Heriberto Valdivieso, an Argentine who was winning his second American race. His first winning mount was in the Widener, when Mat Boy beat Indian Lei by three lengths and missed the track record by only one-fifth of a second.

Mat Boy drew an unusually enthusiastic response when he returned to the winner's circle today. He is clearly the most popular South American horse to race in this country since Canonero II won the 1971 Kentucky Derby and Preakness.

Mat Boy is owned by the Noroma Stable, the nom de course of six breeders from Buenos Aires. They had almost completed a deal to sell the horse for $3.5 million after the Widener, but the buyers backed out because of doubts about his soundness. The owners said today that he was still for sale, but now for at least $5 million.

Mat Boy had won seven staight races in Argentina, by a total of 74 1/2 lengths, before being sent here in January. He was equally overpowering on grass or dirt in his homeland, and Bani said today that the horse will make his next start on the grass at Gulfstream. After that he will be sent to New York for the major summer handicap races, where he will run against Slew o' Gold, Play Fellow and others.”

Alas it never happened as the story gets a bit convoluted at this point. Mat-Boy had been questionable to start in the Pan American on the grass at Gulfstream but did indeed make it into the gate for that race. He showed speed before stopping badly and finishing 9th and last, breaking his 10 race win streak. He never ran again after that though, the reasons seemed unclear as they ranged between a bowed tendon and bad ankles. Noroma didn’t get their $5 million and Mat-Boy was returned to Argentina where he was a decent stallion before passing away in 2007. His most famous progeny was Festin, bred by Arthur Hancock III, who was a top US handicap horse in 1991, winning the Oaklawn Park Handicap (Gr 1), Nassau County (Gr 2) at Belmont and the Jockey Club Gold Cup (Gr 1).

Times were far different back then and a mysterious horse destroying everyone in South America, showing up out of nowhere and crushing top horses while breaking track records, was like something out of a movie. It was a chore to even see the races in that era, we looked at the pps if the southern tracks happened to be in the local DRF edition, then perused the charts in the weekly recap to see what happened. Mat-Boy stormed onto the scene but was gone almost as quick. I remember seeing all the 1’s in the pps and watching the replays on the Sportschannel weekly recap show hosted by Harvey Pack on Tuesdays and wondering if the next great horse had arrived.

Frank Stronach changed the track circumference when he bought Gulfstream and they reset the records, like nothing had ever happened there before 2003. They rarely run 10 furlong dirt races at Gulfstream or anywhere for that matter and the current record is listed as 2:02.64 (set in an off-the-turf stake) by a mediocre grass horse named Buddy’s Humor. The name of that off-the-turf stake? The Pan American, the same as Mat-Boy’s final start. His 1:59 is safe forever and even though hardly anyone even remembers his name now, I won’t forget that crazy month when Mat-Boy was the best horse in America.