A look at today’s Saratoga Stakes
Real Writing on Racing 💯
It’s almost closing time for the Saratoga racing season and today we take a look at the four graded stakes carded today. Short stakes fields have plagued the meet this season and today’s aren’t immune to that trend as the largest group is the seven in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl. These aren’t necessarily the best wagering races but there does seem to be some interesting runners in all of them. Good luck if you are wagering and enjoy what’s left of the summer!
Saratoga Stakes Preview (Sponsored by Pleasant Acres farm)
The Prioress Grade 2 for 3 year old fillies $250000 6f main track
1. Oxana – Freaky fast Pennsylvania bred filly by Uptowncharliebrown absolutely blitzed maidens and allowance foes at Parx winning her last two by a combined 28 lengths after settling blazing fast early fractions. This is a big step up in class but she looks like the controlling speed under new jockey Irad Ortiz. The one to catch for veteran trainer Tim Hills. ⭐️
2. Edie Meeny Miny Mo –Broke a step slow in the Monmouth Oaks in her latest before setting honest fractions before tiring late going 1 1/16, holding on for the runner up spot. Cuts back to the distance of her two wins here and adds blinkers. Not sure why they flew in Victor Espinoza to ride as Saratoga’s leading rider (Saez) is sitting in the room without a mount in this spot but if she breaks a step slow again all she will see is Oxana’s rear end.
3. Li’l Tootsie –Appears to have lil chance in here as she really hasn’t shown she is stakes quality and this is a solid graded stakes group.
4. Cilla –Most experienced filly in the field makes her 10th start today. Has a stalking style that should fit here but there are some question marks. Her last two speed figures are numbers that put her right in the mix here but the were both at 5 ½ and accomplished against far softer groups and both with lasix which she won’t have today. Charlie Baker is listed as her trainer but she has been working at Delaware where he doesn’t have a string so in reality Brett Brinkman is still training her so discount any trainer stats here.
5. Amendment Nineteen –Changed hands since her last as she appears to be a rare private purchase by Juddmonte. Has not run TG numbers that put her in the mix here but her new trainer is strong with new charges in his care. She showed improved speed with blinks in her last and if a speed duel materializes she might be able to capitalize but you’d need a better price than you are likely to get.
6. Souper Sensational - Curlin filly unleashed a powerful rally to win the grade 3 Victory Ride at Belmont back in June going 6 ½ over a good track. Returned to run 2nd in the grade 1 Test behind runaway winner Bella Sophia after chasing fast fractions. She took a little step back in figures in that race and I’m skeptical about using her here at anything close to her morning line odds of 6/5 especially cutting back in distance to 6 furlongs.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection – Edie Meeny Miny Mo
The Saranac Grade 3 for 3 year olds $200000 1 1/16 turf
1. Public Sector – This Kingman (GB) colt will likely be the post-time favorite coming off a rail skimming victory over the course in the roughly run Hall of Fame stakes back on August 6th. He has progressed steadily in the fashion of many Brown runners and while he has a good resume (never worse than 2nd outside a tough trip in last years BC juvy turf) he isn’t significantly faster than most in this compact field of six and will be a very short price.
2. Like The King – Returned to the grass for his last two after a ill-advised start in the Kentucky Derby, was disappointing in both starts, coming up empty at Ellis in the Audubon as the 2-1 favorite and then failing to last after setting a slow pace in the Kent at Delaware on July 3rd. Freshened since, he has been working strong at Keeneland and figures to be close to what may be a modest pace.
3. He’spuregold – New Jersey bred stakes winner in his last, seems up against it here as this isn’t Monmouth and these aren’t Jersey-breds. Raphael Santana takes the reins but getting on the board would seem to be a longshot even in this short field.
4. Never Surprised – We were surprised back at Gulfstream in the Kittens Joy when Irad Ortiz took an extremely hard hold of this colt coming out of the gate and wrestled him back to fourth in a field of six, fighting him most of the way. I’d expect a return to front running tactics in this spot by new pilot, Luis Saez and is our choice as the most likely winner. His TG #’s last year as a 2 year old were as good or better than most of this field has run as three year olds. ⭐️⭐️
5. Founder – 600k two year old in training won debut last summer at the Spa but never really got untracked on the dirt after that. Won a listed stakes on turf at Monmouth last out, running a career best grass number in the process. May be hampered by mediocre pace scenario in here though if something strange happens up front he might be the beneficiary at a decent price.
6. Mohs - Yet another Monmouth shipper, this one for Pat McBurney. He has progressed nicely though another that wants to be sitting a stalking trip and with the outside post might not get the best setup.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection – Never Surprised
Flower Bowl Grade 1 4 and up Fillies and Mares $600000 1 3/8 turf
1. La Signare – This six year old mare dances in all of the division big dances but she rarely visits the winners circle. She was the first American based horse to cross the wire in the Diana behind the Charlie Appleby pair of raiders. The pace will be glacial in here and it’s a likely scenario for her to sit close, save ground and pick up the minor spoils once again.
2. American Bridge – Ships in from Europe for top trainer Rouget after winning the 1 ¼ grade 3 Premio Del Giubileo at San Siro in Italy. Rouget has avoided the major circuits with this 4 year old filly by Kodiac and even raced on synthetic tracks over the winter with her. As a new face from across the pond she deserves a second look, this is a big step up in class for her but outside of War Like Goddess there are no monsters in here.
3. War Like Goddess – Huge favorite in the Flower Bowl, deservedly so as she has been tremendous, closing like a freight train from the back of the pack to easily win her last three, all graded stakes going 11 furlongs or longer. The obvious question is always the issue with horses like her with a no early speed, one run closing style, is the pace going to be fast enough to set up her kick? The English Channel filly trained by turf master Bill Mott has gotten better and better, doesn’t have a large field to content with and clearly loves the course. The question is will Leparoux possibly ride her too confidently and give her too much to do? Do you want to find out at 3-5?
4. My Sister Nat – Ran her best race yet last out in the Glen Falls however still got dusted by War Like Goddess who swept by her with ease. Like La Signare she often runs well in these graded marathon faces but rarely wins as her 18-3-7-4 lifetime record will attest for her. Seems like she has a shot to get on the board if she gets a clean trip.
5. Lovely Lucky – Seems up against it here though may be loose on a lonely lead as there just isn’t much other pace to challenge her. Finished 4th in this race last year stalking a ridiculously slow (53.1/119.2!!) pace and would seem to be the logical pacesetter. Lone speed is always dangerous but she will need to run the race of her life to hold on here.
6. Great Island – Lightly raced Scat Daddy mare stretches out in distance for Brown after capturing the grade 3 Matchmaker at Monmouth in her last. She doesn’t run much but when she does, she usually fires her best shot. Minus lasix today, she might lay closer than usual at the extended distance and get the first run under Joel Rosario. Upsetter’s chance. ⭐️
7. Coastana – Trainer Cherie Devaux who has had an excellent Saratoga meet, takes a shot in here with this Kittens Joy filly who will need much improvement to get on the board. The distance isn’t an issue for her but it’s a big jump from the allowance ranks to a grade 1. Improving filly is one to tab for these sort of races down the road.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection – Lovely Lucky
Jockey Club Gold Cup Grade 1 3 and up $1000000 1 ¼ main track
1. Forza Di Oro – Very lightly raced 4 year old by Speightstown is on a three race win streak though that came over a 10 month period. Destroyed an allowance group earlier in the meet and possesses tactical speed that might land him on the lead here. Can he get the 1 ¼ distance and can he take that next step forward to run figures that top older males in the fall run? Junior Alvarado will be under a lot of pressure here as his main client Mott has been farming out some good mounts to other jockeys lately and being the morning line favorite a race like this puts a target squarely on his back. Tough call at short odds.
2. Max Player – Came back from the dead in the Suburban to upset Dubai World Cup winner Mystic Guide and last years JCGC winner Happy Saver. Can he repeat that performance or did the off track move him up? I’m fading him till he proves it again on a dry track.
3. Chess Chief – Was strangely pointing to the Pacific Classic and more oddly used the Bert Allen on the grass at Colonial as a prep. Well neither of those things worked out well and he lands here hoping to clunk up for a share of the $1000000 at stake here. If chaos reigns he might be third here but demand a long price.
4. Happy Saver – Last years winner returned to the races in May after an extended absence, with a workman-like victory over allowance foes at a mile as a prep for the Suburban. In that grade 2 stake, he wound up getting a wide trip in the slop and never threatened while running evenly and getting handed his first loss in six starts. He clearly can get the 1 ¼ and I’d expect Irad Ortiz to not let Forza Di Oro get too far away from him. The one to beat but hardly a great play at a short price
5. Night Ops – This horse always seems to run into a hot horse as he has finished on the board in six straight starts. He was a good second to Art Collector in a minor stakes with the winner retuning to crush the field in the Charlestown Classic. He dances a lot of dances and just kinda hangs around in races picking up a lot of checks and figures to do the same again here though the 1 ¼ distance is a question mark.
6. Forewarned – If he wins they should consider never running the race again. It would be the biggest upset involving a Leon since the late Leon Spinks upset Muhammad Ali in 1978.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection – Night Ops
