A look at the Sam Davis
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Sam F. Davis 3 yo $250000 Gr. III 1 1/16 Tam
Mr Rum Runner - Uncaptured colt exits a distant third place finish in the Mucho Macho Man stakes at Gulfstream behind wire to wire winner and subsequent runner up in the grade III Holy Bull, Simplification. Should be sitting just off the early pace setters from his inside draw and should be able to save ground throughout. Yet despite never running a bad race and showing steady improvement he also has never run nearly fast enough to be considered on top here.
Unpredictable Bay - seventh time was the charm as this Cairo Prince colt, finally headed to the winners circle following a race last out at Churchill Downs after having had five consecutive second place finishes. That race was at 6 furlongs and today he will stretch back out to 1 1/16 though he had a couple of two turn races last fall albeit on synthetic and grass surfaces. His last race was a jump in speed figures after moving up his previous race as well (6 and 9 TG) and he will probably needs to do even better today if he wants to win again. Picks up jockey Quinonez who is having an excellent meet and should have this guy just off the early lead. Tough to love but might get good trip.
Classic Causeway - burst on the scene at Saratoga when he blitzed a good field of maidens going 7 furlongs first time out before running 3rd in the Gr. I Breeders Futurity at Keeneland, setting a rapid pace from post 13 before weakening late. Next out in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill, Joel Rosario took a hard hold of the Giant’s Causeway colt despite less than rapid fractions, made a three wide move turning for home, led briefly at the 1/4 pole and was just second best while easily clear of the rest. Trainer Lynch has been turning the screws at Palm Meadows with sharp 6 and 7 furlong works leading into this spot. Picks up Irad Ortiz and should be able to work out a good trip from post three. Anything close to the morning line would be fine!
Golden Glider - Ghostzapper colt is one of three in here for Casse. Two for two (I can’t say ‘undefeated’ until at least three wins lol) after scoring first time out going 1 1/16 on the synthetic at Woodbine and then running even better when caught wide in an allowance race over today’s surface at Tampa five weeks ago. One concern is that he broke poorly and was rank in the early part of that last win and in today’s full field over better runners similar behavior would make Antonio Galiardo’s task a lot tougher. Using underneath in exotics at the right (10-1 +) price.
God of Love - Cupid colt from the Casse conglomerate has a very difficult style to overcome to win these sort of Derby preps. He has broke poorly twice and just doesn’t have much early speed at all. What he does have is a strong closing kick but it’s rare to see Kentucky Derby preps won from the absolute back of the pack and when it does it’s usually because the race just falls apart (last years Wood for example). If there was a future book for the Jeff Ruby Steaks, I’d take a flyer on him but not today.
Trademark - From the connections of last years Davis 3rd place finisher, Hidden Stash, this is an interesting player in this group. After a compete non-effort in his August debut at Ellis Park, he ran a solid second in a MSW sprint at Keeneland in October before breaking his maiden while showing more early speed in a 1 1/16 race at Churchill on Halloween. The Upstart gelding knocked off an allowance field closing weekend at Churchill defeating next out stakes winner (on turf) Red Run. Off 77 days coming into this, he has been working well at Payson Park, has decent TG figs and rates a punchers chance with anything close to his morning line of 15-1 being a square price. Perhaps only interesting to me but he has worn front bandages in all his starts as did Hidden Stash.
Make It Big - Undefeated Florida-bred colt by Pleasant Acres Farm stallion Neolithic won the Springboard Mile at Remington Park mid-December. Will likely try to stalk pacesetters here under Jose Ortiz, though has not had clean breaks in two of three starts which is concerning with so many horses with tactical speed in here. If he breaks slow he risks getting shuffled back and winding up wide turning for home. Color me skeptical here
Shipsational - Longtime Aqueduct stalwart Eddie Barker has a handful of horses at Tampa this winter and this New York bred is one of them. Three for four lifetime, all in NYB company, he is a two time stakes winner and had a ton of trouble in his only loss. Midshipman colt has a pedigree and running style that suggests today’s trip should be within his scope and if new rider JJ Castellano can work out decent postion in that first turn this guy can earn some KY Derby points here.
Howling Time - Scratched
Volcanic - the third of the Casse trio, the Violence colt ran a hugely improved effort at Gulfstream when breaking his maiden on January 8. Showed much more speed in that win after having some early trouble his last two last summer. This isn’t an easy post for him to navigate as he looks to be another with tactical speed and with a potential wide trip and possible regression from his last we will pass unless he is 50-1 or something crazy.
Strike Hard - actually the fastest horse in the field in terms of TG figs. Ran a super race last out in the Mucho Macho Man at GP for the low profile Matthew Williams who rarely ventures away from Hallandale. Tough post and like many others here that all want to be in that 3rd/4th/5th stalking trip he will need some good fortune in that first turn.
Kitten Mischief - home-bred Into Michief gelding has two races both at a one turn mile, running good figs both times for Thomas. Manny Franco comes in to ride from difficult post (have you heard that enough?) and like others will have hard time getting decent postion without being really wide in that critical first turn. Tough assignment
Little Vic - draws in from also eligibles which isn’t something that happens often in stakes races these days. Won first time out in slop back in September and was second last out at GP in a fast sprint race setting rapid pace in both starts. Paco might gun from the far outside so watch out what happens in that first turn. I don’t think there is much reason to think he can be used hard out of the gate, take pressure and out finish this field, King Guillermo’s (running on undercard stake today) rarely strike twice.
Barry ‘Sniper’ Spears selection - Golden Glider
Today’s good natured rant - There is really no reason that KY Derby prep point races aren’t run under equal weights, why should non-graded stakes winners like Make it Big or Shipsational or different surface winners like God of Love or the most ludicrous of all mere allowance winners like Trademark be giving weight? They should all carry 122. The only reason these races continue to be run under a weight system that isn’t nearly as pertinent these days is the “we always do it this way and hate to change for some bizarre reason”. It’s hard to imagine anyone will object to these races being run at equal weights and in general the allowance weight system should be adjusted to how modern horses are campaigned. Recency isn’t seen as a positive any longer yet those horses are penalized for running back.
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