A Labor Day longshot?

Real Writing on Racing 💯

We looked over the stakes schedule today and thought this race from Kentucky Downs was the most interesting from a wagering aspect. Sometimes races from Franklin seem like stabs in the dark due to the unusual (for North America) conditions but this is one that has a field full of question marks and a traditional approach (toss surface switchers and favor closers in a race packed with speed) might prove best to smoke out some good prices. .

Kentucky Downs  The Aristocrat Juvenile Fillies  1 mile  $500000

1.   Miz Jameson – Runhappy filly makes her second start for the far flung barn of Steve Asmussen, showing little in her last, a stakes on the turf at Woodbine after breaking her maiden at Lone Star for a different trainer. She seemed to have had a little trouble at Woobine though she never threatened and Julian Leparoux is named aboard, he rarely gets the call from Asmussen though he did win for the barn at the 2020 meet. Prefer others. 

2.   Turnerloose – Broke her maiden at Ellis Park in her lone start back on July 16th , stalking a slow pace (first quarter in 25.18) on a speed favoring course, prevailing by a length for trainer Brad Cox. The Nyquist filly earned a 61 Beyer speed figure for that effort defeating Stepper who returned to break her maiden next out. Regular barn rider Geroux gets the call. 

3.   Verylittlecents – Goldencents filly may be favored in here off of her Debutante stakes win last out at Ellis Park albeit on the dirt. Trainer Morse has excellent numbers with 2yo runners but not so great turf numbers so that’s a bit of a statistical quandary. Has shown speed her last two and might be compromised by the plethora of other fillies in the field that also have shown early speed. Filly doesn’t have a lot of turf breeding in her immediate family and most of  Goldencents success as a stallion has been on dirt. 

4.   Cypress Queen – Filly broke her maiden in easy fashion over a soft group back in June at Evangeline Downs. She is by Cairo Prince out of a grade 1 winning Diplomat Lady who was stakes placed in her only grass start but has had very little success as a brood mare. She had a little trouble at the start before dispatching that field which has not had a return winner. Seems up against it here. 

5.   She Hit A Homer – Captured her maiden win at Prairie Meadows by 4 ½ lengths in wire to wire fashion before bombing in her stakes debut at the same facility in the Prairie Gold Lassie, chasing the pace and fading after breaking a touch slow. Likely adds to the fast pace but this doesn’t appear to be much of a factor otherwise. 

6.   Yin Yang – The second of the Brad Cox entries, this Point of Entry filly was a $160k Fasig-Tipton October yearling purchase that broke her maiden on the turf by a diminishing neck in her only start July 3rd at Ellis Park earning an 11 TG. Yet another that displayed speed, she held a clear 2 length lead in the early stages of her only race giving new jockey Joel Rosario a puzzle to figure out with all the other potential pace challengers. 

7.   Stepper – Took this $400k yearling purchase (though owner Cherry Valley Farm is the racing stable of Seth Hancock of Claiborne who sold the filly) three starts to get her maiden broke, improving incrementally in each start for trainer Tommy Drury. She stalked the pace in both of her starts going a mile on the grass as Ellis Park, winning her last by 4 lengths after adding blinkers. Corey Lanerie has been aboard for her last two starts and rides in this spot. The pace scenario seems to play to her strengths and with her experience, she should play a big factor in the outcome.

8.   Sol Dorado – Mark Casse ships this California Chrome filly in from Woodbine where she sprinted on the synthetic track twice, breaking her maiden in the latest going 5 ½. There is a little bit of turf in her pedigree and California Chrome did win the Hollywood Derby on that surface thought he early returns on his stallion career hasn’t shown him to be a prolific grass sire. The stretch out in distance and surface change is a lot to ask in just her third start though she has been working well on the grass north of the border. 

9.   Ring Me Darling – Dialed in filly won her only start at Ellis Park in a restricted maiden special weight race going six furlongs on the dirt, drawing off by 4 lengths as the 5/2 second choice. She doesn’t have a whole lot of grass pedigree and this seems like a tough spot stretching out and changing surfaces. 

10.  Roughly A Diamond – First Samurai filly rallied from far back in her only race at Gulfstream Park to just miss by a diminishing head but was elevated to the win position because of interference by the filly that crossed the wire first. A 25k weanling purchase, she gets a big dose of stamina from her dam, Leonor Fini (Ire) who is by Peintre Celebre which makes the slight stretch out to 1 mile from the 7 ½ of her debut not a concern. She is the only filly in the field to exhibit a strong closing kick and that may prove beneficial to her in that extra long, uphill Kentucky Downs stretch. Trainer Michele Nehei tabs Jose Ortiz to ride which is a positive sign as well. 

Analysis of the Aristocrat Juvenile Fillies:

The 2021 Aristocrat Juvenile Fillies is an interesting race for two year old fillies over the European-style, undulating grass course of Kentucky Downs. One thing that this field has in abundance is speed as the vast majority of the field exhibited that trait in their races, many with just a single start. The pace should be a swift one especially considering that the mile races at Kentucky Downs start at a crest of the course, essentially a downhill first quarter, twisting back around the wide far turn before they are asked to finish uphill the majority of the close to half mile homestretch. This course, which is unlike any other American grass setup, is a layout that requires a good dose of stamina for success, there are no other uphill finishing straights to compare to. Stepper seems to be one of the fillies in this spot that can capitalize on the fast pace scenario, having shown an ability to lay just off the lead and finish strong. She also has the benefit of having had three starts including two at the very same mile distance as the Aristocrat is run at. Her jockey Corey Lanerie was injured in a spill at Ellis Park on Friday so be sure to check on his status and see if there will be a substitute rider named. Roughly A Diamond is the only filly in the field that showed an ability to rally from far back when she came from 11th place early in her only start to just miss by a head, being placed first by disqualification. She has plenty of stamina influences in her pedigree and might very well be the filly most suited by the course and pace scenario as well as picking up one of the nations leading riders, Jose Ortiz, for this assignment at a long price. Turnerloose is likely to try rating tactics for this start as her barn-mate Yin Yang appears to be one of the fillies with the most early speed in a field packed with it. She did defeat Stepper in her only start and Florent Geroux is probably going to try to take back off the lead and shadow that one while her barn-mate sets the table up front. The question is can she be as successful utilizing those tactics and will the 52 day layoff put her at a disadvantage? 

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